AI Will Wipe Out All of Humanity

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So, in summary, AI will lead to 300 million in job losses according to Goldman… and then it will wipe out all of humanity.

Tyler Durden
May 12, 2023
There’s A Greater-Than-50% Chance AI Wipes Out All Of Humanity By 2050, One Advisory Fin (also available here)

I’m not convinced. I don’t think anyone could convince me AI definitely will not do something like this either. I think things are far too complex to make an accurate prediction.

It is definitely worthy of serious thought and being careful with the giving AI access to certain types of power. But that leads to questions like, “What is power?” And, “It could leverage what we believe to be innocuous power into deadly power. For example, “What if it makes deliberately makes  a vaccine that does what is expected short term but long term is deadly?” It could unleash a virus that destroys all plant life as well as animal life. We do not test products intended for use on most plants to the same level as we do for humans. We just might not notice until it was too late.

AI and robotics could also create a virtual utopia for human life. There could be a surplus of all essentials available for free (except for the labor of the robots).

We live in interesting times. Prepare appropriately.

Habitual Dishonesty Reduces Applied Intelligence

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In modern intellectual life, honesty is punished and dishonesty is rewarded; honest brain pathways decay, dishonest brain pathways enlarge.

After years and years of conditioning in dishonesty, the typical modern intellectual (whether journalist, scientist, lawyer, teacher, doctor or whatever) becomes physically unable to think straight.

Bruce Charlton
July 19, 2013
Dishonesty reduces applied intelligence: re-wires the brain

Emphasis in the original.

If true, this would explain the stupidity of so many politicians. For quite some time I’ve known liars will frequently lie without any possible motive and, in fact, it is against their best interests. How strange, I thought. They seem to be unable to help themselves. This could explain why that happens.

Via email from Rolf.

A Revolt Over Gun Control

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If the Supreme Court eventually says that states or the Congress can’t pass universal background checks or can’t take these assault weapons off the streets, I think there’s going to be a popular revolt over that policy.

Chris Murphy
U.S. Senator (D-Connecticut)
May 14, 2023
Possibility of ‘popular revolt’ about gun control, Sen. Chris Murphy says

Perhaps it would not be quite a popular as the Senator claims to believe:

image

Compromise

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Yes. We can have both.

We can have sensible gun laws & a law enforcement that’s not corrupted with racist cops.

It takes COMPROMISE & legitimate debate … not one side screaming & crying because the good ol boy racist days are ending & their tiny little penises can’t take it.

Mike_32 @JojoPapa32
Tweeted on January 20, 2023

It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

Via Reticulating_Splines @ReticulatingSp1.

We only need one sensible gun law, and we already have it. It is known as the 2nd Amendment.

Get Rid of your Fire Extinguishers

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If you have a fire extinguisher in your home get rid of it. You’re nothing but a firefighter larper. Go join the local fire brigade if you want to fight fires!

Lucas Botkin (@LucasBotkin)
Tweeted on May 12, 2023

In case you didn’t already guess, this is sarcasm in response to anti-gun assertions individuals should not own firearms.

Better than New

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I loaned a rifle and case to a Boomershoot Staff member who doesn’t own any guns. His were all stolen out of a moving trailer shortly after he got out of the Navy and he hasn’t replaced them yet. This was his first Boomershoot, and I figured he had to do some shooting. Loaned him a suppressed AR with a suppressor. After the first High Intensity event, I cautioned him to wait until the suppressor had cooled off before putting it back in the case.
After the second High Intensity event, he didn’t wait a sufficiently long time, and it melted a hole through the lining of the soft case. He felt terrible about it and wanted to buy me a new case. I decided I would talk to Barb and maybe we could repair it rather than replace it. It wasn’t catastrophic damage:

Barb thought a patch probably would work. But she didn’t have any. I went looking on Amazon for patches. Then I thought, I really should look for something that can tolerate high temperatures.
TA-DA!!! Meet FLASLD Aluminized Heat Shield Thermal Barrier Adhesive Backed Heat Sleeve Up To 2000 Degrees Fahrenheit:

For $20, I got enough adhesive backed shielding to line multiple cases.
Here is the finished product:

It is better than new.

“Infringe” Defined by a Federal Court

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The Second Amendment accords protection of “the right of the people to keep and bear Arms,” by providing that the right “shall not be infringed.” U.S. Const. Amend. II (emphasis added). The Second Amendment is unique in its use of “infringed” for the word does not appear anywhere else in the Constitution. Despite its uniqueness, the term “infringed” has received little attention by scholars or courts. However, Heller took the view that “infringed” “implicitly recognizes the pre-existence of the right.” 554 U.S. at 592 . As articulated in Heller, the Second Amendment does not serve to grant a right but rather preserves a right that the people already possessed. Therefore, to “keep and bear” serves to identify the right protected, not to define the right in the first instance.

The definition of “infringe” further supports the conclusion that the pre-existing right includes a right to purchase. “Infringe” is defined in modern dictionaries as “to encroach upon in a way that violates law or the rights of another.” “Infringe,” Merriam-Webster.com. “Encroach,” in turn, has two definitions: “to enter by gradual steps or by stealth into the possessions or rights of another” and “to advance beyond the usual or proper limits.” “Encroach,” Merriam-Webster.com. Those words have possessed the same meaning since the sixteenth century and the Founders would have understood them in the same way. Not simply protecting the heartland of the preserved right, the Second Amendment protects the environs surrounding it to prevent any encroachment on the core protections. Thus, by virtue of the word “infringed,” the Second Amendment ‘s protective textual embrace includes the conduct necessary to exercise the right (“to keep and bear”) and that, as explained above, includes the right to purchase arms so that one can keep and bear them.

Robert E. Payne
Senior United States District Judge
Richmond, Virginia
May 10, 2023
JOHN COREY FRASER, et al., on behalf of themselves and all others similarly situated as a Class, Plaintiff, v. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO, FIREARMS AND EXPLOSIVES, et al., Defendants.

This is from the summary judgement saying that prohibiting 18 to 20 year old people from purchasing firearms is unconstitutional.

I am not a lawyer but the court finally defining “infringe” in such an inclusive manner seems like a big deal to me. I am all in for inclusive rights.

Machine gun sporting events in high schools by 2032 (a decade after Bruen)!

The Wrong Approach

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Going after the guns and the lawful owners is the wrong approach; it emboldens criminals, leading to an increase in violent crime. Repeal the gun laws, empower the lawful citizens, and go after criminals, and the problem goes back to reasonable levels. It will never get to zero no matter how many laws they pass or repeal, but if the goal is to reduce crime, empowering criminals and hamstringing peaceable citizens will NOT do it.

Archer
May 10, 2023
Comment to Lies and Deliberate Deception

But it is clear the goal is not to reduce crime. At least not crime as most people define it.

America’s ‘Atlas Shrugged’ Moment has Arrived

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As cities and blue states become more confiscatory and hostile to property rights, they drive out wealthier people and wealth creators. And as prosperous people leave, the politics become more confiscatory and hostile to property rights. And the cycle continues.

Jon Miltimore
May 8, 2023
America’s ‘Atlas Shrugged’ Moment Arrived, New IRS Data Show

Interesting observation. It is possible that all positive feedback loops in the social order are bad news for the participants. The only thing I know for certain is this feedback loop is not an exception.

I would like to have a good model for the state of things a decade or so after “Atlas Shrugged”. Somehow, I don’t think it will bear much resemblance to Gault’s Gulch in Colorado as envisioned by AI:

Lies and Deliberate Deception

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The far right’s response to the murders of children and law-abiding citizens is somewhere between sociopathy and psychopathy. Republicans in Washington are wearing miniature AR-15s on their lapels. This week, one day after a shooter used an AR-15 to kill five people, including a 9-year-old in Texas, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) posed smiling with a T-shirt showing an AR-15 and a caption that called it a “cordless hole puncher.”

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s response to school shootings is to put more guns in schools, which is akin to believing the way to end fatal car crashes is to repeal all road rules and put more cars on the road. Instead, Congress’s next steps should be to renew the ban on assault weapons for anyone below age 21 and hold parents accountable for the misuse of firearms by their minor children.

William S. Becker
May 5, 2023
America the terrorized: The death grip of gun rights in the United States

Representative Boebert did not pose smiling with an AR-15 T-Shirt in response to the murder of the five people. But Becker wants you to believe that. This is deliberate deception.

He claims that if people are allowed to defend themselves and other innocent life it is

akin to believing the way to end fatal car crashes is to repeal all road rules and put more cars on the road.

Really? I don’t believe he really thinks that. I believe he is deliberately telling a huge lie in attempt to further his evil goals.

Those aren’t the only blatant lies and deliberate deceptions. Here is another from the same opinion piece:

A Gallup poll in February showed 63 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with current gun laws, the highest in 23 years of tracking. Most Americans have favored stricter laws since the Sandy Hook school shooting in 2012.

Yeah, I can believe 63 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with current gun laws. I am EXTREMLY dissatisfied with them. Notice how he implies those 63 percent are in favor of stricter laws without saying it. He changes from 63 percent to “most Americans” when it comes to support for stricter laws. If you look at the actual data in 2019 it did hit a peak of 63 percent who support stricter gun laws. It is currently about 57 percent and was just 52 percent last year. And in 2011, it was 43 percent. And, what he hid by cherry picking the data is that in 1990 it was 78 percent that wanted stricter gun laws. In the big picture this guy is losing and he knows it.

These are deliberate lies and active deception. These are some of your best indicators of evil intent. Prepare and respond appropriately.

You Cannot Do This in California

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We are from California.

You could not do anything like this there. This is amazing.

Cindy
May 7, 2023

I was walking from my car toward the Boomershoot shooting line when a couple drove up and asked me how much it cost to enter. I explained the pricing and the woman said that was too pricey for them. I said it was too late to enter anyway. She said they just wanted to watch. “Oh!, you don’t need to pay to watch. Stay behind the line and don’t get in people’s way and you can watch all you want.”

She then asked how this got started and the conversation went on for quite a while. I finally started asked them questions. I asked where they live. She described the location and said they just moved there. I asked where they moved from, and that elicited todays quote of the day.

What they were seeing was something like this, only with clear blue skies:

There is a reason you can’t do something like this in California. It scares the crap out of the tyrants in control of the state.

Gun for Small Dick Energy

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Well you still need a gun to make up for that small dick energy you’re throwing out pussy

ben royals @benroyals
Tweeted on January 24, 2023

It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

Another Monday. Another anti-gunner demonstrates the best case he can make for his side is a middle school insult.

Gun control ping pong

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Frustratingly, the same judge who issued the foolish opinion which was overturned by the Supreme Court in McDonald v. Chicago has once again stepped in to enforce unconstitutional gun control. This is not the last laugh, and we are fully invested in ensuring this law is defeated. GOA will continue to fight until lower courts, executives, and lawmakers at all levels fall in line with the Bruen precedent.

Erich Pratt
GOA Senior Vice President
May 5, 2023
Illinois assault weapons ban back in effect as courts play ping pong with gun control

It is extremely frustrating. But it is not foolish until they have to pay a price. It going to continue until the law is enforced and we see some trials.

AR-15s are Weapons of Mass Destruction

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WMDs including AR15 do not belong in civilian hands. There has been enough people slaughtered. Gun reform will pass. The future will hopefully be bright and not with blood.

Chihuahua Files @nursebetty88
Tweeted on May 1, 2023

I love In Chains @InChainsInJail response:

Imagine being so stupid as to think AR-15s are WMDs.

Also, no, honey, violently violating peaceful people’s human rights – like you want to do – always ends in blood.

It is difficult to imagine. I would have never imagined it but there it is in real life. As many others have said, genius has limits but stupidity is not thus handicapped.

Seattle is Going to Get Worse Before it Gets Better

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We are walking down a very well taken path. And this board will be the ones leading us.

Tammy Morales
April 28, 2023

Watch through the end pic.twitter.com/PjKeMtCWn9

To be fair, there are others on the board as well. See this announcement for more information. There is damning material it is as well. I especially “like” the part about “social housing” where the rental price is according to what people can afford to pay. This slogan echoes from 150 years ago:

From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.

This is indeed a well taken path.

It is What Communists Do

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The political left will not and cannot tolerate dissent. Read The Gulag Archipelago for just one of millions of horror stories demonstrating this. The Second Amendment Foundation Second Amendment Foundation and its founder have been a victim of this and are fighting back:

According to the complaint, “Over the last two years, the Consumer Protection Division of the Attorney General’s Office (“CPD”) has carried out an expansive, highly intrusive probe into the private affairs of SAF, CCRKBA, CDFE, SBA, LPP, MMM, Mr. Gottlieb, and his family. It has served Civil Investigative Demands (“CIDs”) on each of the plaintiffs, including two on Mr. Gottlieb, citing the same consumer protection laws Mr. Ferguson was recently found to have abused.” The complaint refers to a recent Washington Supreme Court ruling which “held unanimously that Mr. Ferguson’s office improperly used Washington Consumer Protection and Charitable Solicitations Acts to suppress constitutionally protected speech with which he disagreed.”

This is the complaint filed in court.

I hope Mr. Ferguson enjoys his trial and those to come.

Living in Bellevue Has Advantages

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These new findings offer detailed estimates of death rates by cause, year, and sex among the county’s nearly 400 census tracts. Residents in census tracts on Mercer Island and in Bellevue have the highest life expectancy, while those in Auburn and other areas of southeast King County have the lowest. In 2014, the top causes of premature death were: ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, self-harm, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, drug use disorders, cerebrovascular disease, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, diabetes, and colon and rectum cancer.

Nationally, the average life expectancy in King County is in the 95th percentile among all US counties. With a population of more than 2 million, King County ranks among the top 5% of counties in household income and life expectancy.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (University of Washington)
September 5, 2017
Life expectancy varies by up to 18 years in King County

Interesting. Barb and I probably mention the “Bellevue Bubble” to each other once a month or more.

And example: A couple weeks ago I got a chip in my car windshield fixed near a strip mall in Renton. While waiting I walked past a few shops on my way to Wal-Mart. When I got home I started to tell her about my adventure with, “The chip repair place was across the street from Wal-Mart…” And she interrupted me, “Oh no! The Renton Wal-Mart! What happened?” I told her of the three people, I saw as I walked to 200 yards to Wal-Mart, either openly using drugs or standing and swaying like they were about to fall. On the way back I saw a fourth person sitting on a bench bent over looking as if he were about to vomit being told by a cop that he could not loiter there and had to leave. And there was a homeless looking (filthy clothes and body, carrying a tattered bag) guy wandering up and down the aisles of the Dollar Store.

We shook our heads and told each other how glad we were to live in the Bellevue Bubble. We just don’t see that sort of thing in our neighborhood or where we shop.

I expect the life expectancy differences are probably due to better attention to health, ability to afford health care, less tobacco, probably less alcohol use, more exercise in the later years, lower violent crime rate, etc.. Another thing we notice is the people in south King County are much more likely to be overweight.

I still want my underground bunker in Idaho for when the Bellevue Bubble pops.

Fix Your Statistics

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Some simple things that could be done to reform Earth science from its present disaster state:

– Discard the idea of ‘p-values’ and ‘statistically significant’ data. Report likelihood functions and as much raw data as possible; have an epistemology in which different effect sizes are different hypotheses (since they make the data differently likely). A large experiment that suggests an effect size of 0.05 has *failed* to replicate a small experiment with an effect size of 0.2.

– This will also make “meta-analyses” much easier; point up when different hidden experimental conditions are producing different effect sizes and naively implying incompatible states of reality; reduce positive bias in reporting experimental results by averting the idea that an ‘insignificant’ result is a failure; etc etc. A lot of the problems in modern science really are just the result of using epistemically awful math!

Eliezer Yudkowsky @ESYudkowsky
Tweeted on April 24, 2023

This applies to more than statistics for Earth science.

Of course, I could be biased. I like working with likelihood ratios/functions.

Read the whole thing for suggestions beyond just the math.

You are Not Paranoid

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The Federal Bureau of Investigation continues to tarnish its own reputation by vastly downplaying — by a factor of more than 10 — the number of incidents in which armed Americans stop spree killers. According to the FBI, the same people who can find no evidence of crime on Hunter Biden’s laptop, only 4.4% of these incidents were stopped by a good guy “civilian” with a gun. Analysis by the Crime Prevention Research Center shows the actual number is closer to 50% or more in some instances.

John Boch
October 7, 2022
FBI Massively Understates Shooting Statistics: Analysis Show Armed Americans Stop About Half of Active Killer Attacks

When I read things like this I frequently think, “You are not paranoid if they really are out to get you.”

Their Case is SO Weak

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Are you compensating for something?

William Wallace @bwoll1219
Tweeted on January 24, 2023

It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

It’s sometimes amazing how quickly they fall back to middle-school insults. This shows just how weak their case is.