Maybe We Should Listen To an Expert

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The EVERYTHING BUBBLE, stocks, bonds, real estate SET to CRASH. US debt increasing by $1 trillion every 90 days. US BANKRUPT. Save your self. Please buy more real gold, silver, Bitcoin.

Robert Kiyosaki @theRealKiyosaki
Posted on X April 6, 2024

Kiyosaki appears to be well respected.

Some people even collect his quotes:

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Maybe we should listen to an expert rather than try and figure out complex things like on our own.

Gold Price Rally is a Complete Mystery

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The rally is defying a lot of normal thinking, especially when it comes to still-elevated rates. I think the narrative is changing towards sticky inflation and perhaps a hard landing, spiced with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty and de-globalization driving central bank demand.

Ole Hansen
Head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS
April 7, 2024
Gold price rally to record highs is a complete mystery | Fortune

I’m concerned it is not actually a mystery. I suspect it is a reality nearly everyone does not want to believe.

Types of Marxism

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Economic Marxism wants to destroy your property.

Cultural Marxism wants to destroy your civilisation.

Environmental Marxism wants to destroy your species.

Progress!

Alice Smith (@TheAliceSmith)
Posted on X April 6, 2024

Alice Smith claims to be the great-great-great-granddaughter of Adam Smith.

It would be trivial to get multiple quotes of high quality each and every day from her X feed.

Forecasting a Downturn in Gold

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Gold prices achieved new heights last week, closing at record levels, with central banks’ interest and geopolitical tensions as key factors. Yet, we’re advising traders to be cautious, as the current rally might not be as robust as it seems.

Last week, XAU/USD settled at $2330.160, up $97.04 or +4.35%.

The market appears ripe for a downturn, and those holding positions near the peak might face significant losses. Therefore, the short-term forecast leans towards a cautious bearish outlook for gold.

James Hyerczyk
April 6, 2024
Gold Prices Forecast: Was a Bull Trap Set on Friday? | FXEmpire

Perhaps. That was Saturday But gold closed at $2,358.09 on Tuesday. That is up another 1.2% in two days.

Predictions are tough. Especially those predictions about the future.

“Changes in Methodology” for Inflation Numbers

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In the past few months, political strategists have marveled at the fact that the economy under Biden was growing (at 3.2pc in the fourth quarter of 2024) but polling on Biden’s performance on the economy was dismal.

A recent paper led by former treasury of the secretary Larry Summers has helped clear up the discrepancy. Summers and his co-authors show that if we adjust American inflation data to consider changes in methodology that have taken place over the past few decades, we see inflation not peaking at 9pc, as the official data indicates, but rather at 18pc. The paper also suggests that inflation measured in line with historical norms would have been 8pc at the end of 2023, not the 3pc shown in the official statistics.

Philip Pilkington
April 5, 2024
The US Fed may kill the Biden presidency (msn.com)

As I suspected, the price of gold is a better measure of inflation than official government numbers.

Prepare appropriately.

$1 Trillion in Debt Every 100 Days

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Currently, the US national debt stands at an unprecedented $34 trillion, fueled by extensive spending and escalating debt-servicing costs. Bank of America’s estimates, indicating that the US is accumulating an additional $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, underscore the urgency of the situation.

Rahul Kumar
April 5, 2024
Wharton Professor Warns Swelling US Debt Could Trigger Market Crisis by Next Year (msn.com)

On April 1st one ounce of Gold would buy an all time high of $2,264. On April 2nd it reached another all time high of $2,268. Yesterday it closed at the all time high of $2,341.49.

Prepare appropriately.

Outpacing Inflation

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Gold surged to a new record on Tuesday, as geopolitical tensions and interest rate speculation drove a rally in the yellow metal.

The commodity rose to as high $2,141.79 per ounce, eclipsing its December all-time high of $2,135.39, according to Bloomberg data.

Gold’s rise is in part due to its safe-haven status, which investors are increasingly seeking out amid ongoing international turmoil. With the Ukraine war and the Gaza Strip conflict still raging, the asset’s spot price has risen 3.2% year-to-date.

But the metal saw a much sharper increase since mid-February, and has added around $100 in the past week.

Filip De Mott
March 5, 2024
Gold Price Hits New All-Time High on Rate-Cut Hopes, Geopolitical Turmoil (businessinsider.com)

That was March 5th. This is the last 24 hours (as of about 9:00 PM PDT):

Screenshot_20240401_210330

The all time high referenced in the article has been eclipsed by nearly 6% with the all time high of yesterday morning and yet a new one this morning ($2,268.26).

Gold is either outpacing inflation or inflation is much greater than the Fed is telling us.

I would think that in general gold should be essentially in sync with inflation.

I’ve been asking people, chat bots, and reading articles trying to find a reason I am satisfied with which would account for the rapid rise in the price of gold relative to the dollar in the last month. Nothing is particularly convincing. The following are in the order I find most likely to least likely:

  1. China is buying gold.
  2. Non-U.S. markets are doing poorly.
  3. Fighting in Gaza.
  4. War in Ukraine.
  5. Speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months.
  6. People are concerned Trump will win the election and are buying gold because of the chaos he will bring.

Unless China is buying at a greater rate than previously none of those things are new in the last month.

See also:

Prepare appropriately.

A Thin Veneer of Civilization

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Unlike so many people around the world, those of us that live in the United States were fortunate enough to grow up in a relatively civilized society.  Unfortunately, we have turned our backs on the values that our forefathers handed down to us, and so now we are starting to find out what is beneath the thin veneer of civilization that we have all been taking for granted all these years.  Our society is absolutely teeming with predators, crime rates are soaring all over the nation, millions of Americans are afraid to leave their own homes, and hordes of drug addicts are literally pooping in the middle of our streets whenever they feel like it.

Michael Snyder
December 4, 2023
We Are Starting To Find Out What Is Beneath The Thin Veneer Of Civilization That We Have All Been Taking For Granted (theeconomiccollapseblog.com)

It is not just a thin veneer of civilization, admittedly they are not orthogonal, but it is also a thin veneer of rationality as well.

Prepare appropriately.

I want an underground bunker in Idaho.

Gold Price Forecasting

This is the price of gold forecast from J.P. Morgan on January 17, 2024:

Infographic depicting gold price forecasts for each quarter of 2024 and 2025.

It has not been below $2000 mid December and the asking price today was briefly over $2100. Via Gold Price Today | Gold Spot Price Charts | APMEX®:

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I’m reminded of Dad and Brother Doug talking to grain buyers about selling crops from the farm. The buyers would explain, in great detail and confidence, why the price would go up/down and encourage the farmers to hold/sell accordingly. Almost without exception you could count on their advice being exactly backward to the best interests of the farmer.

Statewide Rent Control Being Considered in Washington

Five things to know about WA proposal to limit rent hikes | The Seattle Times

Isn’t rent control one of the most studied economic experiments? And hasn’t it been shown to be, over the long term, a disaster for everyone involved?

This is the deliberate destruction of Washington state.

I want my underground bunker in Idaho.

If it Has Never Happened, Will it Ever Happen?

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There is currently much debate about the health of financial markets. Can prices remain detached from the fundamentals long enough for the economic/earnings recession to catch up with prices?

Maybe. It has just never happened.

Lance Roberts
January 30, 2024
“Theory Of Reflexivity” And Does It Matter? – RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

Prepare appropriately.

Ending the Federal Reserve from the Bottom Up

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Since its inception, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have led to a decline of over 95% in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. As a result, there have been several attempts to curtail or eliminate the Federal Reserve’s powers (e.g., the efforts of Rep. Louis T. McFadden in the 1930s; the efforts of Rep. Wright Patman in the 1970s; the efforts of Rep. Henry Gonzalez in the 1990s; and the efforts of Rep. Ron Paul since the 1990s).

However, none have proven successful to date, due mainly to the constraints of strong political opposition at the national level. In contrast to these “top-down” attempts at the national level, this paper proposes an alternative approach to ending the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money: the “Constitutional Tender Act,” a bill template that can be introduced in every state legislature in the nation, returning each of them to adherence to the U.S. Constitution’s “legal tender” provisions of Article I, Section 10.

This approach would have a greater likelihood of success for a number of reasons. First, it is decentralized: rather than facing concerted political opposition at a single Federal level, it attacks the issue at the State level, where strategies and tactics can be adapted to the types and amount of political opposition they encounter.

Second, it is diffused: it can be attempted in any number of States, which can cause the opposition to spread its resources much more thinly than would be necessary at the Federal level. Finally, it is legally sound: it relies on the U.S. Constitution’s negative mandate in Article I, Section 10, that “No State shall… make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.” Therefore, in contrast to “top-down” attempts to “end the Fed,” a “bottom-up” approach using “constitutional tender” laws will find greater success.

Under this Act, the State would be required to only use gold and silver coins (or their equivalents, such as checks or electronic transfers) for payments of any debt owed by or to the State (e.g., taxes, fees, contract payments, etc.). All contracts, tax bills, etc. would be required to be denominated in legal tender gold and silver U.S. coins, including Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, and pre-1965 90% silver coins. All State-chartered banks, as well as any other bank that is a depository for State funds, would be required to offer accounts denominated in those types of gold and silver coins, and to keep such accounts segregated from other types of accounts such as Federal Reserve Notes.

Bill Green
April 4, 2017
Ending the Federal Reserve from the Bottom Up

It is an interesting thought.experiment. But will it work? It’s been almost seven years now and how much progress has it made?

Perhaps after the big crash people will give it more serious consideration.

Gold is currently tickling the $2,100/oz price as I type this… Prepare appropriately.

Gold and Silver

Interesting:

Gold Forecast – Prices Could Soon Signal a Historic Breakout (fxempire.com)

Gold is very close to a historic breakout and sub-$2000 prices will be a distant memory. Gold miners are undervalued and could be the best performing asset in 2024

But, as always, be highly suspect of the claims made by someone who has something to gain from convincing you to part with your money.

In their favor the predictions on October 20, 2023 seem to be close:

GOLD DAILY: The final washout I warned investors about ended quickly, and prices are back above the downtrend line. Gold could consolidate around $2000 for a few days, but a breakout above $2090 is becoming increasingly likely before year-end.

SILVER DAILY: The final washout in precious metals triggered a false breakdown in silver below the 1-year trendline. Prices have recovered, and we expect a bullish breakout above $26.00 before year-end.

The End of Times

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The biggest elephant in the room is the US Fiscal Doom Loop. To refresh: US Government spending is out of control, and there appears to be very little political will to stop it. As the chart below shows, Government spending is up 14% yoy and tax receipts are down 7% yoy.  Fiscal year ended September 2023 is projected to have a deficit of over $2 Billion (or roughly 8% of GDP). In the past, deficits of this magnitude only materialized during significant downturns like the bursting of the Dotcom Bubble, the 2008 GFC and the COVID crisis. It is unprecedented to have deficits of this magnitude with the economy and employment being relatively strong.

Lawrence Lepard
October 2023
This “Unprecedented” Fiscal Doom Loop Is Getting Worse

A volcano in Iceland is expected to erupt in hours or days and destroy a town of 4,000 people, Japan has a new island, a super volcano is flexing, U.S. military bases are being attacked almost daily, and the U.S. debt is over 33 trillion and rapidly increasing.

We live in interesting times. Some might even claim it is the end of times. Prepare appropriately.

I want my underground bunker in Idaho.

Gas Tax Loophole

You may have heard Washington state has the highest gas prices in the nation. A huge contribution to this is the state gas tax.

As I frequently drive to and from Idaho this is rather painful. However, I have found a loophole. The difference in the price of gasoline in Idaho versus the Seattle area is so great than I can buy ethanol free gasoline in Idaho for approximately the same price as I can purchase the 10% ethanol blended unleaded in Bellevue.

Ethanol free gasoline gives my car a noticeable boost in gas mileage. On my last return trip from Idaho I was able to demonstrate that I can fill up in Moscow, just over the border from Washington, and, driving at or under the speed limit, I make it back to Bellevue on a half tank of fuel.

That means that if I bring back a five or six gallon can of ethanol free gas I can drive around town a little and still make it all the way back to Idaho without giving the commie Washington state government a single penny of gasoline tax.

Oh, and I can buy all the standard capacity magazines and guns I want in Idaho while I’m there too. All 100% legal*.


*I am legally required to leave any such newly purchased items in Idaho until the courts overturn the illegal gun laws in Washington. But that is what the armory in my underground bunker is for.

More Babies or Something

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People who see the declining population as a good thing tend to ignore the difficulties it will create. Let’s begin with the fiscal havoc. The federal government continues to spend more than it taxes, causing its debt to spiral upward. A low birth rate means more retirees and fewer workers to support them — more people entitled to Social Security and Medicare, but fewer taxpayers — worsening the debt. Even if we were to rein in the debt, a shrinking, aging population means more non-working people wanting to buy things with their savings, but fewer people to produce them, causing rampant inflation. As Stanford economist Charles Jones puts it, declining population has profound implications: “Rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate.”

Robert Whaples
June 18, 2023
We Need More Babies

There are solutions other than more babies.

Robotics and AI will increase productivity. Anti-aging therapies will reduce the number of retirees and increase the number of projected workers.

But just because there are multiple potential solutions doesn’t mean the realization of any of the solutions will be successful.

Prepare appropriately.

Socialism is Barely on the Seattle City Council Ballot

A glimmer of hope for Seattle?

Bland is back? In Seattle the fiery far left is barely on the ballot

It appears the revolution has petered out.

Or maybe it’s just on pause. But Seattle’s great civic experiment of the past decade, dabbing in socialism and far-left progressive experiments in public policy, is all but a no-show in the current City Council campaigns.

It wasn’t long ago that candidates for public office here would routinely declare things like, “We’re going to make Seattle the most progressive city in America.” The campaigns were movements, centered around first-in-the-nation policy ideas involving wages, tenant law, anti-corporate campaign finance measures or such utopian fantasies as completely abolishing the police.

Seattle became one of the only cities to elect a real-deal socialist, of the type that wants to end capitalism — the outgoing Socialist Alternative Councilmember, Kshama Sawant.

Now candidates are talking about potholes. Building sidewalks. Hiring more cops. Fixing stuff.

There are 45 candidates running for seven seats. I can’t say that none of them are socialist at heart, and I definitely wouldn’t say that progressivism is on the run. We’re all liberals here, after all. But the mojo of the once-rising left sure seems missing.

I suspect the wolves have donned their sheep’s clothing but we will know more in a year. There has been so much damage done to Seattle that it would probably take a decade to heal even with the best wound care. And it isn’t going to get the best care. As soon as it appears to have life in it, the wolves will again attack and try to drain more blood.

Online Ammo Bank

This is a little different:

AmmoSquared Addresses Growing Demand for Alternative Assets

Nampa, ID – AmmoSquared Inc., the pioneer in online ammunition backed holdings, is answering the call from consumers seeking non-traditional ways to diversify their assets. The company offers a unique service by allowing customers to accumulate and store physical ammunition holdings off-site, providing an innovative way for individuals to build and protect tangible wealth while hedging against economic uncertainties.

As the global economy faces unprecedented challenges, many individuals are turning away from traditional asset accounts that can be vulnerable to fiat currency shocks such as stocks, bonds, and money market accounts. AmmoSquared’s ammunition-backed digital wallet offers a new approach for those concerned about the declining value of fiat currencies and the risks associated with conventional financial institutions.

“Ammunition is a physical, tangible asset that will never be worth zero,” says AmmoSquared CEO Dan Morton, “It’s more stable than cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which are still too volatile for most people to reliably use as an alternative store of value. Ammunition is more like gold, with intrinsic value based on the effort and cost of raw materials. It will never be worthless, nor will it vanish due to a tweet or hacker.”

AmmoSquared has developed a user-friendly platform that allows customers to build, store, and manage an ammunition inventory online. The company offers over 60 different caliber options to cater to the diverse needs of its customers. Asset holders take advantage of AmmoSquared’s secure, climate controlled, storage facilities, ensuring their ammunition holdings are kept in optimal conditions to preserve its value.

The company has also introduced features typically found in financial products, such as limit orders, percentage gains and loss tracking, and the ability to exchange between different calibers with just a few clicks. These features, combined with an easy-to-use interface, make AmmoSquared an attractive option for those seeking to purchase and store ammunition as an alternative safe haven for their excess funds.

AmmoSquared, which started in 2015 as an ammunition subscription service, has evolved into something akin to an ammunition bank. They offer customers a unique way to diversify their savings into a tangible, useful asset. As dollar dominance wanes and people seek alternative safe havens for their excess cash, AmmoSquared provides a practical, secure solution that helps protect customers’ wealth in these uncertain times.

For more information about AmmoSquared and its innovative ammunition solutions, visit https://ammosquared.com/.

About AmmoSquared Inc.:

AmmoSquared is pioneering an online ammunition wallet or “bank account”, offering customers an innovative way to purchase and store ammunition while still meeting their everyday shooting and hunting needs. With a wide variety of calibers available, AmmoSquared’s platform provides a user-friendly experience that allows individuals to manage and diversify their assets with ease. The company is dedicated to providing secure storage solutions and exceptional customer service, positioning itself as a leader in the burgeoning ammunition depository market.

For further information, please contact:

marketing@ammosquared.com

www.ammosquared.com

America’s ‘Atlas Shrugged’ Moment has Arrived

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As cities and blue states become more confiscatory and hostile to property rights, they drive out wealthier people and wealth creators. And as prosperous people leave, the politics become more confiscatory and hostile to property rights. And the cycle continues.

Jon Miltimore
May 8, 2023
America’s ‘Atlas Shrugged’ Moment Arrived, New IRS Data Show

Interesting observation. It is possible that all positive feedback loops in the social order are bad news for the participants. The only thing I know for certain is this feedback loop is not an exception.

I would like to have a good model for the state of things a decade or so after “Atlas Shrugged”. Somehow, I don’t think it will bear much resemblance to Gault’s Gulch in Colorado as envisioned by AI:

Seattle is Going to Get Worse Before it Gets Better

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We are walking down a very well taken path. And this board will be the ones leading us.

Tammy Morales
April 28, 2023

Watch through the end pic.twitter.com/PjKeMtCWn9

To be fair, there are others on the board as well. See this announcement for more information. There is damning material it is as well. I especially “like” the part about “social housing” where the rental price is according to what people can afford to pay. This slogan echoes from 150 years ago:

From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.

This is indeed a well taken path.