Gold Price Forecasting

This is the price of gold forecast from J.P. Morgan on January 17, 2024:

Infographic depicting gold price forecasts for each quarter of 2024 and 2025.

It has not been below $2000 mid December and the asking price today was briefly over $2100. Via Gold Price Today | Gold Spot Price Charts | APMEX®:



I’m reminded of Dad and Brother Doug talking to grain buyers about selling crops from the farm. The buyers would explain, in great detail and confidence, why the price would go up/down and encourage the farmers to hold/sell accordingly. Almost without exception you could count on their advice being exactly backward to the best interests of the farmer.


5 thoughts on “Gold Price Forecasting

  1. It’s a good bet that the “forecaster” won’t experience any repercussions for getting it wrong, so long as the firm itself doesn’t take any losses due to his or her errors.

    It’s an even better bet that the person who made that miserable “chart” won’t either, which is a pity as it’s almost at flogging-offense level.

  2. Like you say, Boris. Almost all prices are manipulated these days. With the amount of gold already in the market plus productions at close to 100%.
    What could possibly be going on in production to give one price swings of close to a $100 dollars month to month? Answer, nothing, it’s not possible.
    Only paper gold/leasing and other market scams can give one an accurate account for those swings.
    Which means almost anything is possible. The devil we know is, no one is afraid to lie to you in order to get what they want. Least not in big business.
    To me gold is just an alternative currency. And an ounce of gold will always be an ounce gold. No matter how many dollars it cost.
    And therein lies the mental trick. We always compare gold to dollars. Rather than dollars to gold. Just because one seems more useful?
    Or because we’ve been brainwashed into the government/bankers systemic slavery of always incorporating dollars into our way of thinking?
    Everything is being manipulated. Which is easiest to do so?
    For saving. buy something hard to manipulate.
    And watch platinum. It was always the rich man’s game. And gold was historically 85% of platinum price, for like ever, because of production costs.
    It would be just like the banking class to pull that out of their hat. After years of collecting low. They make some excuse to push demand price back over gold.
    Just as all other forms of currency fail.
    Instead of paper, scissors, rock. Think of it as, gold, paper, ammo.
    It’s all a game.

  3. Our current financial system (massive government/private/corporate debt, banking, and privately-issued debt-based money) is not sustainable. But it can stay irrational a lot longer than we can stay solvent. It’s starting to break down as the US hegemony starts breaking down and the years of inflation we exported returns. At some point, gold and silver will make big moves, then explode upward with a major currency reset, at least as measured in US dollars. How it will fain in ruble or yuan terms is harder to speculate on. But our government is failing fast, and the next president will have to deal with it.

    When gold goes over $2500 or silver over $50 an ounce for any length of time (at least two options expirations, so something over a month), then it’ll be off to the races soon after because so many options will break and need covering. We are in the end-game now, but it will likely be playing out for several more years.

    In addition to investing in base metals like iron, copper, and lead (ahem, IYKWIMAIKTYD), everyone should have some Au and Ag and a few diversified mining stocks in their portfolio.

  4. I learned something about the value of gold many years ago that I saw mentioned in passing, I think in the WSJ, in the past month or two: the purchasing power of gold has remained roughly constant since the days of the Roman Republic.

    A different way to express the same point is that hard money retains its value, while inflation is entirely the creation of governments. Milton Friedman, of course, said the same thing in slightly different words A corollary is that the oft-cited “2% target” — the number the Fed aims for as “normal inflation” is also a government creation. I view it as “the highest inflation that our rulers believe they can get away with long-term”.

  5. What gold will do in comparison to currency is never possible to accurately predict…unless you are in a position to manipulate things to effect that price relationship. What cannot be argued is that gold has inherent value because it is relatively rare, cannot be manufactured…only mined, is easily recognized and has historically always been a good store of value. Therefore owning gold is never a bad idea. But it’s not an ideal means of getting rich, unless you are one of those who can manipulate markets. For most people it’s simply an excellent way to store wealth.

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