Category Archives: Current News

This is about stuff in the mass media that generally has a short interest life span. Speculation about an election outcome a few days before the election is an example.

More on 30.06 Bullet Penetration in the Charlie Kirk Case

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I wish this were posted somewhere you did not need an account to read it:

Matt Tardio on X: “Charlie Kirk “Mystery Bullet” Explained” / X

The summary is:

This analysis draws on two major U.S. military sources: the 1962 U.S. Army Medical Department report Wound Ballistics, which compiled data from multiple surveys covering thousands of casualties from World War II and Korea, and the 2012 technical report by two U.S. Air Force Academy researchers that provides a detailed study of the ballistics of the 30-06 cartridge.

Analysis

A deformed, wobbling (yawing), non-bonded bullet, traveling at an estimated 2,507 feet per second, that is designed to mushroom and deform upon contact, likely began to tumble by over 90 degrees within 3″ of tissue, separate and fragment, dumping all of it’s 2018 ft-lbs of energy within just 6 inches.

I am skeptical this can be used as a definitive answer to the questions raised because it seems unlikely the U.S. Army had access to statistically significant human wound ballistic data with 30.06 cartridges using soft-point bullets. Military ammo is full metal jacket with more recent allowance of the use of match grade hollow points where the hollow point is an artifact of the construction rather than a deliberate design to increase the ability of the bullet to wound.

That said, through and through shots for elk with this bullet type and weight (the claims I have seen are 150 grain Remington Core Lok), are far from certain. With deer they are mostly certain. But these shots are mostly through the lungs which are much easier to penetrate than muscle. So, with a young, large man like Kirk, a bullet losing its jacket and fragmenting in a neck shot, as the autopsy claims, then the main bullet fragment hitting the spine (I don’t know about this part) it seems plausible that it might not have exited.

    This Makes me Sad

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    Quote of the Day

    It’s over.

    Not in the theatrical sense the conspiracy industrial complex thrives on…no dramatic last-minute twist, no shadowy cabal revealed, no grand redemption arc for the woman who built a brand on “I alone see the pattern.”

    Just the cold, high-resolution truth of a man on a roof, in position, taking the shot that killed Charlie Kirk.

    The footage doesn’t speculate. It doesn’t theorize. It simply records the moment Tyler Robinson did exactly what the evidence has always said he did.

    And in doing so, it performs a public autopsy on Candace Owens’ entire post-Kirk ecosystem of insinuation, deflection, and narrative preservation at the expense of reality.

    This is not opinion. This is what happens when the lens gets close enough to kill the story.

    …

    Tyler Robinson’s remaining legal options have been narrowed to whatever procedural arguments his defense can still raise against an evidence package that now includes the visual capture of the act itself.

    That is a matter for the court.

    Candace Owens’ narrative has been reduced to whatever residual audience can still be sustained by increasingly implausible pivots.

    That is a matter for the market and for whatever remains of her credibility.

    Both collapses were inevitable the moment the footage existed. The only variable was how long the denial could be maintained before the lens got close enough.

    It got close enough.

    The roof does not lie.

    The timeline does not lie.

    The DNA does not lie.

    The family’s recognition does not lie.

    The taped statement does not lie.

    And now the zoomed-in record of the shot itself does not lie.

    It is over for the shooter’s attempt to remain a question mark.

    It is over for the grifter’s attempt to keep the question mark alive as content.

    What remains is the cold, precise work of justice and the quieter work of those who choose reality over the narcotic of perpetual suspicion.

    The footage has done its job.

    The rest is cleanup.

    LHGrey
    July 10, 2026
    THE ROOF SHOT THAT EXECUTED TWO LIES AT ONCE: Tyler Robinson Caught in Crystal Forensic Clarity, and Candace Owens’ Malignant Conspiracy Grift Bleeds Out on the Courtroom Floor

    I asked Grok, “Please give me a concise list of references and a summary of the recent hearing about the Charlie Kirk murder.“, then “Please tell me about the conspiracy theories to the effect Robinson was a patsy or pawn for Israel/CIA/Deep-State/etc. and how the evidence affects those beliefs.“

    The response to the last question was the more interesting to me:

    Main conspiracy theories portraying Tyler Robinson (the 23-year-old charged with aggravated murder) as a “patsy” or pawn in a larger plot include claims of involvement by Israel/Mossad, the CIA/Deep State, or other entities (e.g., Turning Point USA insiders, Kirk’s widow Erika, or foreign actors). These surged immediately after the September 10, 2025, shooting at Utah Valley University and persist among some online commentators (e.g., Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, and far-right/anti-Israel voices).

    Key Theories

    • Israel/Mossad False Flag: Kirk was allegedly killed because he was shifting away from strong pro-Israel support (e.g., losing Jewish donors, considering inviting Candace Owens, or questioning Epstein-Mossad links). Claims suggest a professional hit disguised with Robinson as a fall guy to silence him or manipulate U.S. policy. Netanyahu publicly denied this as a “monstrous big lie.”
    • CIA/Deep State or Broader Conspiracy: Robinson was manipulated/framed by intelligence agencies, leftist networks, or security lapses at the event (e.g., no rooftop coverage despite promises). Some allege a “false flag” to inflame divisions, with Robinson as a radicalized but controlled asset. Variants include staged elements, multiple shooters, or insiders (e.g., TPUSA or Erika Kirk).
    • Other Variants: Robinson didn’t act alone or fire the shot (e.g., decoys in similar shirts, manipulated video, or a different shooter from a water tower); the event was a hoax/staged; or bullet forensics prove a setup.

    These often blend antisemitic tropes, “noticing” narratives, or distrust of official accounts, amplified on X and by influencers.

    How Evidence from Investigations and the July 2026 Preliminary Hearing Affects These Claims

    The hearing (July 6–10, 2026) and prior disclosures strongly support a lone-actor case with ideological motives (Robinson’s leftist shift, criticism of Kirk’s views on gender/trans issues, anti-fascist/engraved cartridges). Prosecutors describe “overwhelming” evidence; no credible links to foreign governments, intelligence agencies, or insiders have emerged. Robinson’s defense has challenged specifics (e.g., DNA reliability) but not alleged a broader conspiracy.

    • Surveillance Video: Multiple clips show a figure matching Robinson scouting the campus hours earlier (e.g., in shorts/T-shirt, buying food, contacting TPUSA people), changing clothes, accessing the rooftop, and fleeing afterward. This undercuts “not on campus” or “decoy” claims. Emotional moments included Kirk’s family viewing footage.
    • DNA and Physical Evidence: Links Robinson to the suspected rifle (DNA on trigger/casings), a tool for etching cartridges, and the scene. A “sniper pad” was found on the roof. Bullet fragment matching was “inconclusive” (common in fragmented cases and not disproving the rifle), but this is outweighed by other forensics.
    • Confessions and Motive: Texts/notes to his roommate/romantic partner (Lance Twiggs) expressed intent (“had enough of his hatred,” opportunity to “take out” Kirk) and remorse. Twiggs testified about this; Robinson turned himself in the next day via family. No evidence of coercion or staging.
    • No Patsy Indicators: Robinson remains alive, in custody, and has not implicated handlers (despite opportunities). Defense hasn’t pursued conspiracy angles. No leaks or evidence from investigations point to Mossad/CIA involvement.

    Overall Impact: The evidence presented makes patsy theories highly implausible for most observers, as it depicts a premeditated but amateurish solo act by a ideologically motivated individual (consistent with his background and communications). Conspiracies rely on speculation, selective focus (e.g., the bullet report), or unproven claims about Kirk’s donor tensions, which lack forensic or testimonial support in court.

    The judge will rule on probable cause for trial on September 1, 2026. Official sources (prosecutors, FBI, local law enforcement) treat it as a straightforward case; theories persist in fringe circles but have been widely criticized as distractions or grifting. Always cross-reference primary court updates over social media narratives.

    It’s sad, but I know that this evidence will convince almost none of the conspiracy theorist types. If this goes to trial, the evidence becomes public, the testimony is cross-examined, and still there will be believers that Robinson did not do it and/or some shadowy organization had a part in it.

    I know it is irrational to expect people to rational. I know that reality is really, really, tough. But at some point, I just get really sad at the realization that rationality is just an extremely thin veneer over some humans and for many it doesn’t even exist. It is getting close to the point I just need to give up on changing the world and just go do my own thing in my underground bunker in Idaho.

    Casualties per Square Kilometer

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    If true, these are truly staggering numbers:

    In June 2026, Russia experienced around 40,000 casualties in just one month of combat, significantly surpassing its monthly recruitment capability of 24,000 to 30,000, indicating that the nation is losing personnel more rapidly than it can replenish them. The Center for Strategic International Studies reports that total Russian casualties have escalated to 1.4 million. Currently, Russia is incurring losses of 1,298 troops for every square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized, a stark contrast to the 68 casualties per square kilometer recorded in June 2025, marking a drastic decline in military effectiveness by a factor of 19. Analysts from the US Department of Defense caution that this rate of loss is not sustainable and may lead Moscow to consider escalatory measures targeting NATO supply chains or American resources. 

    Russian Military Recruiters Are Probably Not Getting Bonuses for Exceeding Quotas

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    Quote of the Day

    The Russian military’s “meat-grinder” tactics in Ukraine, where troops suffer ruinous losses for barely any gain, are creating a backlash.

    In fact, the average life expectancy of a new recruit is about 10 days to three weeks, and once on the battlefield, their survival averages just 20-35 minutes, according to Russian military bloggers. 

    Jason Ma
    June 28, 2026
    The end of Putin’s regime will spring from war spending chaos, former central bank advisor says, amid military mutiny threat and fuel-shortage brawls

    If true*, that would cause a significant reduction in moral and make recruitment “challenging.”

    Think about it. Promises of free medical care for life and a large pension at retirement just won’t have the same draw as it might have had a few years ago.

    * It might be true for certain subgroups in the military. But it certainly is not true for the military as a whole.

    Wow! Really?

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    I am really surprised by this: Massachusetts may become first state to repeal marijuana legalization

    I am no fan of marijuana usage. I have never even tried a brownie. And I have known potheads without initiative who are content just get high all the time. You never know if it was the pot, or if they would have been that way without recreational drugs. But alcohol abuse destroys lives, too. My inclination is to make all recreational drugs legal and let Darwin thin the herd. Heartless, maybe. But I also think being willfully stupid should hurt.

    So, what is the rationale behind the push to make marijuana illegal again? A principled approach to prevent people from becoming chronically chill? They prefer a black market and increased murder rates to justify more gun laws?

    Copilot tells me:

    The real reasons behind the repeal effort

    These are the major drivers cited by repeal advocates, legislators, and policy groups.

    1. Public health concerns

    Advocates argue that legalization has produced measurable harms:

    • Increased ER visits for cannabis‑related anxiety, psychosis, and accidental ingestion by children.
    • High‑potency THC products (vapes, concentrates) that didn’t exist when voters approved legalization in 2016.
    • Rising youth usage rates, especially with edibles and vape pens.
    • Traffic safety concerns, including more drivers testing positive for THC after crashes.

    Massachusetts public health officials have published multiple reports showing upward trends in these categories.

    2. Community impact concerns

    Some municipalities report:

    • Nuisance complaints around dispensaries (parking, crowds, loitering).
    • Odor complaints near cultivation facilities.
    • Local zoning conflicts over where shops can operate.
    • Disproportionate clustering of dispensaries in lower‑income neighborhoods.

    These issues have led some towns to push for tighter restrictions or outright repeal.

    3. Regulatory dissatisfaction

    Massachusetts’ Cannabis Control Commission (CCC) has faced:

    • Leadership turnover
    • Accusations of slow licensing
    • Lawsuits over equity program implementation
    • Complaints from both industry and anti‑industry groups

    Repeal advocates argue the system is “unfixable” and should be scrapped.

    4. Black market expansion

    Ironically, legalization did not eliminate the illicit market. In fact:

    • Illegal delivery services expanded.
    • Unlicensed grow operations increased.
    • Illicit products are often cheaper than regulated ones.
    • Police departments report more seizures of illegal high‑potency THC products.

    Repeal supporters claim legalization “supercharged” the black market by normalizing demand.

    5. Economic disappointment

    The industry has not delivered the promised benefits:

    • Many dispensaries are failing or closing.
    • Tax revenue is lower than projected.
    • Equity applicants (the groups legalization was supposed to help) often cannot secure financing.
    • Large multi‑state operators dominate the market.

    Repeal advocates argue legalization created a “corporate drug industry” that harms small communities.

    6. Youth mental health concerns

    This is one of the strongest motivators behind repeal efforts:

    • Schools report more cannabis‑related disciplinary issues.
    • Pediatricians report more cases of cannabis‑induced psychosis.
    • THC vape pens are extremely easy for teens to obtain.
    • Some parents’ groups argue legalization normalized youth use.

    This argument resonates strongly with suburban communities.

    7. Political momentum from other states

    Even though no state has fully repealed legalization, several have:

    • Paused licensing
    • Imposed moratoriums
    • Tightened THC potency limits
    • Restricted advertising
    • Increased taxes
    • Proposed partial rollbacks

    Massachusetts repeal advocates cite these moves as evidence of a national “course correction.”

    8. Moral or cultural opposition

    Some groups simply believe legalization was a mistake on moral or cultural grounds:

    • Concern about “drug normalization”
    • Fear of long‑term societal effects
    • Desire to reverse what they see as a failed social experiment

    This is the smallest but loudest faction.

    🧩 What’s actually happening in Massachusetts right now

    Based on legislative filings and public statements:

    • A ballot initiative has been drafted to repeal recreational legalization.
    • Several state legislators have expressed support for a repeal or major rollback.
    • Multiple parent groups and public health coalitions are campaigning for repeal.
    • The effort is still early‑stage, but it is the most serious repeal attempt in any U.S. state so far.

    Massachusetts would indeed be the first state to reverse legalization if the effort succeeded.

    Interesting.

    As if I Need Another Reason

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    Another reason to avoid California:

    Scientists say the ‘earthquake gate’ between California’s most stressed faults could trigger more dangerous quakes

    A single junction in the mountains northeast of Los Angeles may determine whether the next major earthquake stays bad or becomes catastrophic. That junction, called Cajon Pass, sits where two of Southern California’s most powerful fault systems converge. A new study finds that both faults are carrying more tectonic stress than at any point in the last millennium, and the conditions that have historically triggered the region’s largest, most destructive earthquakes are forming right now.

    The Overton Window Moved

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    Quote of the Day

    Today the European Parliament voted 418-218 to pass the strictest migration law in EU history.

    When the result was announced, MEPs started chanting.

    “Send them back.”

    Inside the parliament chamber. On the floor. In 2026.

    Here’s what the law actually does:

    — Deportation orders now apply across all EU member states. You can’t evade removal by crossing a border.

    — Detention before deportation extended from 6 months to 30 months. Unlimited for security threats.

    — “Return hubs” in third countries. Migrants can be transferred outside the EU while awaiting deportation — including families with children.

    — Automatic deportation stays while appeals are pending? Gone. Courts decide case by case.

    — Entry bans double from 5 to 10 years. Lifetime bans for security risks.

    Currently only about 20% of people ordered deported from the EU actually leave.

    For years European leaders told voters that open borders and mass migration were non-negotiable — that wanting enforcement meant you were a fascist.

    418 Members of the European Parliament just disagreed.

    Trump proved his immigration policies were popular enough to win elections.

    After a wave of right-wing electoral gains across the continent, Europe is following in his footsteps.

    And the Overton Window is getting kicked off its hinges.

    KanekoaTheGreat @KanekoaTheGreat
    Posted on X, June 17, 2026

    Via a repost on X from Sarah A. Hoyt (@SarahAHoyt).

    See also EU Parliament approves ‘strictest-ever’ migration law | Euronews.

    Please consider this post as your reading assignment before doing your homework which will be assigned in my next blog post.

    It has been quite a while since I have seen a window with hinges so that last line jarred me more than the news of the change in EU immigration policy. But never mind that. I’ll bet the EU changing their direction on immigration so decisively is unbelievable to many or even most people. I don’t know how many times I have heard predictions of “the end of western civilization”, “Europe will be a Muslim majority in a generation”, etc. etc. I thought that was far from certain.

    Just like with bit coin it is difficult for people to imagine a dramatic change in things. If people think about things hard enough, they can do linear extrapolation. Non-linear extrapolation is much, much harder. I have probably talked about Bitcoin and gotten enough confirmation that most everyone here can probably envisioning Bitcoin having a dramatic crash. And people enough examples of hyperinflation or seen 100 trillion Dollar bills to have at least a glimmer of the possibility of it happening in this country.

    But when you live in an information bubble that does not give you repeated samples of a future dramatically different from your current reality it is tough to believe a future dramatically different from your current reality. This is why TDS is so common. With their information environment blocking a connection with the alternate reality of people not believing Trump was a fascist, or even Hitler reincarnated, they could not image a world where he could win the election. Yet he won not only once, but twice (and perhaps three times) and most recently with a majority of all voters. This event is so far outside of their belief system that there was actually a club of people believing they all woke up “in the wrong timeline” at 4:00 AM on November 6, 2024.

    A similar thing is probably happening now, not only to those who wanted the mass immigration to the EU to continue, but also to people in the U.S. who invested in the belief that downfall of western civilization was a certainity.

    The pessimists predicting the end of Western civilization within a generation may still be correct, but the odds are much, much lower. My model of Europeans is they are much more likely to behave like, appropriately, European Starlings. They can rapidly turn and go in another direction without apparent communication and leadership. The people of the U.S., particularly libertarian leaning people, are more like a herd of cats. Extrapolation of behavior for either is a fool’s errand. I view the European/socialist population as being strongly adhering to group consensus. Once a certain critical mass is reached nearly everyone changes direction without feeling any cognitive distress. This enabled the non-linear change in political direction you see in the EU immigration vote.

    When I was doing some research for this post Grok made some suggestions which I think are valid:

    Potential refinements/additions:

    1. Acknowledge where pessimists had a point (for credibility/balance): Real non-linear risks existed—parallel societies, grooming scandals, terror incidents, welfare strain, and trust erosion (Putnam-style diversity effects). Some demographic projections still show cultural strain in Western Europe if inflows aren’t controlled. The starling shift might be happening because the warnings highlighted genuine problems before total breakdown. This strengthens your “odds much lower now” claim without dismissing concerns.
    2. Non-linear examples in Europe: Add concrete ones like the rapid post-2015 backlash building to 2024-2025 elections, or fertility convergence (second-gen Muslim rates dropping toward native lows). Hyperbolic predictions (e.g., Muslims majority by 2050) ignored assimilation, intermarriage, secularization, and policy change.
    3. US contrast: Your “herd of cats” libertarian-leaning view fits—more decentralized, individualistic resistance (e.g., state-level policies, cultural pushback). But note American immigration debates also show shifts (border enforcement focus post-2024).
    4. Psychology tie-in: Expand slightly on why bubbles make non-linear futures hard—availability heuristic (vivid collapse stories or success stories dominate), motivated skepticism, and belief perseverance. The 4 AM Club shows how emotionally invested worldviews resist falsification.

    Possible counter/disagreement for depth: Europeans aren’t always seamless starlings—see persistent divides in France (banlieues), persistent no-go issues, or populist fragmentation. Consensus can shift toward worse outcomes too (historical examples abound). Americans might herd better on existential threats than cats imply. Overall, your optimism about adaptability seems warranted given recent trends, but history shows civilizations can decline nonlinearly if elites double down too long.

    No Accident

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    Quote of the Day

    Following the Freedom 250 team’s installation of temporary lighting on the National Mall, our equipment has been repeatedly targeted by vandals. The recent fuel leak was the direct result of that tampering.

    Upon discovering damage to a generator fuel line, Freedom 250 and our vendors mobilized within minutes, coordinated an immediate cleanup response, and fully remediated the site in close partnership with the National Park Service. We take our responsibility as stewards of the National Mall seriously and are working closely with the appropriate law enforcement authorities regarding these acts of vandalism.

    Rachel Reisner
    June 1, 2026
    30,000 gallons of fuel spilled on National Mall after event for America’s 250th birthday
    And: 30 gallons of fuel spilled on National Mall after event for America’s 250th birthday

    The first article links to and credits the second article as the source.

    Please notice the first article title says 30,000 gallons and the second says 30 gallons. The body of both articles state it was 30 gallons. The second article also includes the subtitle of:

    Cleanup efforts are underway as Freedom 250, a group created by the Trump administration that organized the event, blames “vandalism.”

    Later in the first article it says:

    One of the people familiar with the matter said the National Park Service would typically hold the permit holder liable for the environmental mitigation required after a spill of this magnitude, but it is unclear if Freedom 250 and Event Strategies Inc., which helped organize the events, are on the hook for the clean-up costs incurred by this accident.

    The corresponding paragraph in the second, referenced, article says:

    One of the people familiar with the matter said the National Park Service would typically hold the permit holder liable for the environmental mitigation after a spill of such magnitude, but it is unclear whether Freedom 250 and Event Strategies Inc., which helped organize the events, are on the hook for the cleanup costs.

    My hypothesis is that the creators of the first article deliberately changed the title and added the word “accident” to the body because of their bias against the Trump administration. They know, or at least strongly suspect the vandals were Democrats and want to make the Trump administration to blame for a much worse situation than is actually the case. This was not an accident.

    You can’t hate the legacy media liars enough.

    What Part of Permanent Don’t They Understand?

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    Quote of the Day

    A Virginia judge reaffirmed an injunction blocking the state’s “universal background check” law Wednesday, days after pro-Second Amendment groups sought to hold state officials in contempt when they started enforcing the measure.

    Democratic Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed HB 1525 into law on April 22 after the General Assembly concurred with her amendments that added an emergency provision directing the Virginia State Police to enforce the law blocked by a permanent injunction issued in October 2025. 

    Harold Hutchison
    June 4, 2026
    Second Amendment groups score huge federal court win over Virginia governor

    See also Virginia judge keeps gun-check injunction in place.

    The legislature and the governor claim their newly passed law, essentially the same as the previous law, supersedes the court ruling. Does that mean the slaveowner of the 1860s could have gotten their “property” back by repeatedly passing a law that said the 13th Amendment was null and void?

    Or how about repeatedly passing a law that said women were not allowed to vote after courts said the 19th amendment prohibited such a law?

    These people are not rational. They are like someone who, after I asked, “How do you determine truth from falsity, they responded in complete seriousness with, “It depends on how I feel.”

    Liberalism is a mental disorder.

    Shooting Down Drones from a Prop Plane with an AR

    Posted on by

    Cool!

    I would have thought full auto with tracers would be the preferred configuration for the rear seat “weapons officer.” But I am not one to argue with the people in the air and getting the job done with a red-dot sight on a semi-auto. Perhaps they are shooting a fragmenting round.

    And, as long as the drone or its friends aren’t shooting back, I could see that being kinda fun.

    You Could be Replaced by a Very Small Shell Script

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    Quote of the Day

    Vibe coding feels productive. You ship fast, things look cool, and there’s momentum. But under the hood:

    • Code quality often drops
    • Scalability becomes an afterthought
    • Debugging turns into a nightmare
    • Technical debt builds up silently

    Vibe Coach
    April 22, 2026
    (28) Post | LinkedIn

    The above is true, and several other things are issues as well. A case could be made that it is not worth the benefits–at least for today.

    Six months ago, I had no concern that AI was going to replace my job as a software engineer. Today, I know it is going to happen. I can still review the AI written code, find, and fix problems before it is deployed. I make it more efficient. I make it more maintainable. I make it easier to extend. I make it use less memory. I find and fix potential race condition. * I find and fix edge cases with parameter validation and unexpected responses from other systems.

    But I expect that six months from now AI can do all that as well as I can and do it in 1/1000th of the time it takes me–assuming it still makes those mistakes.

    When I first started programming it was on an analog computer with patch cables, precision potentiometers, and capacitors (to make integrators), with an ink and paper plotter for the output. The digital computer I learned to program that same semester took its input, both code and data, on punched cards. The output was on a line printer which sounded something like a rotary saw cutting through plywood.

    The teletype with a line editor connected to the main frame a year or two later was an incredible upgrade. And I could save my programs and data on disk! No more punched card decks!

    My first personal computer, and IBM XT, had a 10 Mbyte hard drive, and I edited my first programs with EDLIN (another line editor).

    After working for a few years, I went to graduate school. I remember the computer room having signs on the wall about introductions to something called a “visual editor.” Whatever, I thought. The line editors I was accustomed to were visual. What are they talking about? I then looked over someone’s shoulder using a “visual editor” and seeing what you could do was almost orgasmic.

    After a few years more “Integrated Development Environments” (IDE) came out. I mostly ignored them. The visual editor I was using was fine, I would exit, run “make” and then invoke the debugger, visual editor, whatever, again as required. A few years more and the IDE was vastly superior to separate tools.

    The evolving IDEs were good for a couple decades and occasionally code generators would make specialized code (I wrote one when I worked at Qualcomm in the early and mid 2010s).

    About two years ago I started asking chatbots to write a few code snippets which I would copy and paste into my programs. It was surprisingly good. But, if you asked it to make a program which collected traffic data from the firewalls, correlated the IPs and domain address with lists of known bad IPs and domains, then put our network computers which had connections to these known bad IPs and domains into a graphic database with all the connections and attempted connections the answer would be, “Sorry. I can’t do that.” I know because I tried.

    Today, if I were to make that request it would ask a few questions, then it would write the code and add features I had not thought of. Oh, and I could make the request and answer the questions either by text or speaking it into my headset. **

    Sometime, in very near future, Claude Mythos (and probably others) will be released. Here is what is showing up in tests of the preview:

    Claude Mythos Preview is a general-purpose, unreleased frontier model that reveals a stark fact: AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities.

    Mythos Preview has already found thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities, including some in every major operating system and web browser. Given the rate of AI progress, it will not be long before such capabilities proliferate, potentially beyond actors who are committed to deploying them safely. The fallout—for economies, public safety, and national security—could be severe.

    My sources tell me, “It’s more powerful than they say.”

    It took many years to go from the first line editor to the first “visual editor”. It took more years to get to an IDE superior to independent tools. If you were to plot the capabilities of programming development environments versus time with a log scale for the capabilities, you would probably still have an exponential looking curve for a linear time axis. That is, I suspect the exponent of the capabilities is increasing.

    I’m reminded of an email conversation I had with one of my blog readers who used to work at Microsoft the same time I did. A snippet of his musings (from April 2, 2025):

    The Home Economics class of tomorrow won’t be teaching kids how to cook but rather teaching them how to write prompts.

    And if you don’t think this is happening today, look at the kids writing prompts to create high quality AI video content used in ads, anime videos, even porn. We’re starting to see more prompt writers, and prompt writers are becoming tomorrow’s artists.

    Tomorrow’s billionaires? Some will be the same as today’s billionaires; the people who can help you create what’s in your imagination. Microsoft Word and PowerPoint let you create what’s in your head today.  AI engines and powerful, flexible, simple prompt syntaxes will let people create what’s in their imaginations tomorrow, and the inventors of those engines and syntax structures will become billionaires.

    Who knows. Perhaps the very best engines, the best syntaxes, and the best prompt writers will find their way into the design team for the very first NCC 1701.

    I was skeptical and responded:

    You make some good points, but I suspect they won’t be valid for very long. Perhaps a few months. I think what will happen is the chatbots will “learn” that the requirements are insufficiently detailed, and it will ask, just as your waiter/waitress might, “Thin or thick crust?” And the same for other ambiguous requests of every type.

    I asked Copilot and Grok for opinions on the prompt engineers. Here is a portion of the response I was expecting (emphasis added):

    I’d push back a bit: he assumes AI will stay “dumb” about context forever, requiring humans to spoon-feed it every detail. Today’s AI already shows signs of improvement. Advanced models can infer intent from vague prompts by learning user preferences over time or pulling context from past interactions. Imagine a Star Trek replicator that knows Captain Picard’s “Hot” means 85°C because he’s ordered it 47 times before, or that “Earl Grey” implies a medium-steeped brew based on his British leanings. Future AI could ask clarifying questions—“Do you want your pizza spicy or just hot from the oven?”—or use sensors to detect your mood and adjust the recipe. This adaptability might reduce the need for “professional” prompt writers, at least for everyday tasks.

    On April 28, 2025, I sent him this:

    Tech’s hottest job has imploded https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/Tech-s-hottest-job-has-imploded-7278658

    From that posting:

    The development of artificial intelligence is moving so fast, reports The Wall Street Journal, that one of the field’s hottest jobs — prompt engineering — is already on its way out. Just a couple of years ago, companies would pay up to $200,000 to have someone “crafting the exact right inputs” to produce useful results from large language models. But as models have gotten smarter, and more employees are trained on prompting, there’s simply less call for dedicated prompt engineers.

    Yesterday morning my manager sent our team a link to …/prompt-master: A Claude skill that writes the accurate prompts for any AI tool. Zero tokens or credits wasted. Full context and memory retention · GitHub.

    My job, as it exists today, will be obsolete within a few dozen weeks. It may take a few months for management to have confidence in the AI results, but the future is clear. And I expect most white-collar jobs, at nearly any level, will soon be replaceable “by a very small shell script.” ***

    We live in interesting times.

    * Bugs that may only show up when the timing is just right and hence exhibit noticeable (possibly catastrophic) symptoms as infrequently as once per hour/day/week.

    ** And we all laughed in Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home when Scotty tried to interact with a computer by speaking to the mouse as if it were a microphone. We are now truly living in the future.

    *** A geeky insult from 2003.

    Mixed Feelings

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    Quote of the Day

    Idaho was a 2020 move-to darling, and it’s back in the spotlight. Since its high of 320 searches in for every 100 out 6 years ago — the state has taken a backseat to the headliners. It’s not that move-ins stopped, in fact the state has maintained positive inflow and sustained a steady rise of interest year after year.

    And the proof is in the pudding. New U.S. Census data shows that 80% of Idaho counties grew their populations in 2025 and Idaho was among the top ranked inbound states of 2025 with a survey from United Van Lines showing family as the #1 driver.

    One reason may be increasing Californian exits. A California Policy Lab analysis found that in the last five years net moves from California to Idaho increased over the last five years and that for each Idahoan that moves to the Golden State, it receives more than two in return. moveBuddha data backs that inflow story; of searches made early in 2026, 24% of moves to Idaho are from California. Additional analysis finds that housing costs are a driving factor.

    Ryan Carrigan
    April 8, 2026
    Moving Trends in 2026: Where Americans want to move right now

    I have mixed feelings about this. I know what happened to Colorado with out of state invaders. I’m tempted to suggest we build a wall to keep the rats from California out. This is even though my brothers and I were born in California. Of course, none of us stayed there for more about two weeks. And I have lots of relatives there.

    On the hand, there is some confirmation that my choice of Idaho as the number one place in the world I want to live is the right one.

    So, about all I can do is:

    • Encourage the right type of people to move and buy the property close to my little spot and give me a little bit of a buffer.
    • Keep giving people tips for your move to Idaho.

    More Talk

    Posted on by

    Quote of the Day

    For decades, the mullahs have killed not only women they deem dishonorable because they are unveiled, but also homosexuals. They systematically murder their own people whenever they speak their minds; they murder dissidents — most recently, apparently more than 30,000 of them in a matter of days. With the same ruthlessness and efficiency, the regime in Tehran organizes violence internationally. Together with its terror networks, from Hamas to Hezbollah to the Houthis, the mullah dictatorship is perhaps the most effective and cruel source of terror in the world. They operate in European societies in particular, deliberately spreading hatred and violence in ways that erode our liberal constitutional order and strengthen extremist movements.

    The aggressor in Iran — one that poses an existential danger to us — has for years been systematically pursuing nuclear weapons. Nothing — no agreement, no appeal for peace, no presidential handshake — has so far been able to stop it.

    For four and a half decades, Western politicians have hesitated to take effective action against this terrorist state, which murders its own people and destabilizes open societies. It was in our European and democratic interest that America and Israel have finally taken joint action to weaken the Iranian regime. Whether the goal is regime change, the removal of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, simply reducing the hydra-like network of the mullah elite, accelerating an overthrow through popular revolt, or a combination of all these elements — I cannot judge. Some say a first important objective has already been achieved. Iran has been set back by years. We have gained at least one thing: time.

    Now Europe needs to stand with the U.S. to make use of it.

    Mathias Döpfner
    March 31, 2026
    Opinion | Why Europe is wrong to think Iran is ‘not our war’

    The Islamic extremists of Iran have been telling the world they would destroy Israel for decades now. Never actually saying they would use nukes, but the words hinted at it. And as they created longer range and more accurate missiles and drones in great quantities at some point you have to take them seriously. One can certainly make the case that Iran was serious and if allowed to rearm would again enable their proxies and expand their reign of terror.

    If only in geography it is closer to being Europe’s war than ours. And they have had their share of Muslim terrorist attacks over things as innocent as cartoon drawings of Mohammad.

    The blocking of the oil transportation affects them far more than the U.S. And the whole Iran/Russia collaboration is more of threat to Europe than the U.S. The French have been talking about getting involved in a war with Iran since at least 2007 (only the last link is still valid). But talk is cheap and at this point it would seem it is only talk.

    And like France from 2007, Döpfner call for action is probably nothing but talk as well.

    The Necessity of an Accurate Problem Statement

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    Quote of the Day

    If lifespan increases simply because one major disease is delayed, then longer survival does not automatically mean that aging itself has slowed. For example, an intervention that extends the lifespan of mice by delaying cancer is fundamentally different from one that slows the gradual decline of many body systems, even if both produce similar survival curves.

    Genomic Press
    March 13, 2026
    Scientists Say Conquering Age-Related Diseases Could Dramatically Extend Human Life

    When stated this way it is obviously true. One might be tempted to make light of this. But correctly expressing something obvious can be very difficult when no one has ever had the viewpoint from which the truth is obvious.

    The article this QOTD came from is an example of something I have talked about before: The necessity of an accurate problem statement. You can call it a simple thing. But it may be a profound change in mindset which enables rapid progress toward a far better solution.

    I would like to thank my engineering professors from several decades ago for this enlightenment. One of the first things taught in Engineering 101 was how to write an engineering report. And the first thing in a such a report was the problem statement. That problem statement was to be written before you took your slide rule out of its case or looked up the gain bandwidth product of the cool new operational amplifier you heard about a few days ago and were itching to find a use for.

    This can be illustrated more simply with the adage, “Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find that everything he encounters needs pounding.” Technically, this tendency is a form of cognitive bias called Law of the instrument. Writing an accurate problem statement is one means to overcome this bias.

    This simple thing can make a huge difference in every problem you need to solve. It is not limited to aging, gun owner rights, politics, interpersonal relationships, or engineering. First, think about what you are trying to solve, not how to make a solution work.

    A Solidly, Aggressively Patient Threat

    Posted on by

    Quote of the Day

    I want the American people to understand that if it was not an imminent threat, it was a solidly, aggressively patient threat waiting to pounce at any moment to do great damage to American interests.

    Nazee Moinian
    March 11, 2026
    Iranian-born scholar warns regime was an ‘aggressively patient threat waiting to pounce’ on America

    The contribution of Iran to the U.S. war in Iraq in the 2000s was far beyond “patient” and “waiting.” I personally know servicemen killed and severely maimed by Iranian supplied weapons.

    I don’t talk about work much for various reasons, but I will say that cyber-attacks from Iran on U.S. critical infrastructure are, for all intents and purposes, continuous. I cannot imagine the attacks are any less frequent on U.S. allies. The attacks have mixed success, but it only takes the right one to cause great harm.

    Hence, Moinian is only wrong to the extent which she implies Iran had not yet done or attempted significant damage to U.S. interests.

    Think About this Another Way

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    The U.S. and Israel have decapitated Iran and probably are working on the neck and shoulders of the religious leadership. The apparent thinking is that Iran will soon run out of people volunteering to be leaders or change their evil ways.

    That makes sense. At least at first thought it does. Let’s run through a little thought experiment I have had a few times with some close friends a decade or two ago.

    Imagine an alternate timeline where SCOTUS came up with different result in the Heller decision and things went downhill from there. Today, in this alternate timeline, U.S. gun owners realize all they have left is the 100 million guns and a few billion rounds of ammo they had hidden before everything else was confiscated. They still have the firepower and now the motivation to remove the tyrants and restore liberty and the true meaning of the U.S. constitution.

    In a coordinated attack, with the help of insiders during the state of the Union address, they take out POTUS, all his cabinet, the VP, and the Speaker of the House. They then make it known that everyone who voted for the unconstitutional (in the eyes of the gun owners) laws must be removed from office and replaced with constitutionally friendly politicians. If not, minds will continue to see the light in the most literal sense.

    What would the response be? Would the remaining anti-gun politicians go into hiding or give up power? Or would they double (and/or triple) down?

    I believe that the smart money, in the best-case scenario, says, “That’s an interesting question.” The more likely result is a police state and mass killings of innocent people.

    What are your thoughts on what to expect in this alternate U.S. timeline and what that might tell us about what the Iran response will be?

    Real Change is Coming

    Posted on by

    I have changed the order from the original post to make things clearer:

    Israel destroys bridge in Lebanon, threatens Gaza-scale destruction

    On Wednesday night, Hezbollah launched 200 rockets at northern Israeli communities.

    …

     Israel destroyed a bridge in southern Lebanon on Friday and dropped leaflets in Beirut threatening Gaza-scale devastation as it deployed more troops to fight Iran-backed Hezbollah and warned of more attacks on the country’s infrastructure.

    …

    Israeli aircraft dropped flyers over Beirut threatening to inflict damage on Lebanon similar to the devastation the military wrought on Gaza during its two-year war with Hamas. Much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble and nearly all its population displaced.

    “In light of the great success in Gaza, the newspaper of the new reality arrives to Lebanon,” the flyer said.

    Another flyer called on Lebanese to strip Hezbollah of its weapons. It featured two QR codes to links on WhatsApp and Facebook, accompanied by a message telling Lebanese to make contact if they want to see “real change” in their country.

    I am reminded of the leaflets the U.S. military dropped over Japanese cities (Warning Leaflets – Nuclear Museum). Japan did not heed them even after Hiroshima was vaporized. A similar lack of response will occur in Lebanon. Verbal persuasion is difficult in most people and in essentially impossible in religious extremists.

    There is a reason why we have expressions like, “Using a clue bat”, and “hit them with a clue by four.” It takes a different type of “persuasion” to change the minds of these people.

    The distribution of the leaflets is the right thing to do. But only to somewhat reduce the guilt of those delivering the bombs the harshness of the international criticism. The rockets will continue to be launched into Israel and, sadly, real change will come from the sky.

    The Reason We are Facing this Moment

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    Quote of the Day

    You are angry about the present moment, but you are the one who voted for decades of executive overreach that allowed this regime to grow like a cancer.

    You do not get to acquiesce to forty years of executive actions and suddenly discover constitutional outrage only when it fits your partisan narrative.

    My heart breaks when I see the city I grew up in flames. But what breaks it even more is knowing that this suffering—borne by generations of Iranians, paid for by American blood and treasure—was compounded by years of your denial about what this regime is.

    You cannot stabilize a government whose ideology requires bloodshed. And you cannot postpone confrontation forever without multiplying the eventual cost.

    The world is not facing this moment because we finally acted.

    The world is facing this moment because for decades many refused to acknowledge the true nature of the Islamic Republic regime.

    Tahmineh Dehbozorgi @DeTahmineh
    Posted on X, March 5, 2026

    There are many people who still refuse to acknowledge the true nature of the Islamic Republic regime. Most of them seem to be affected by TDS. Such mental health cases are probably beyond help and there is no point in having a discussion with them.

    There are reasons to consider in opposition to the moral necessity case which I think is well proven as in above.

    A more principled opposition would be, the US Constitution does not grant our government the power to be the world’s policeman. Or a practical opposition would be our history of regime change for the last 80 years has been very poor. I keep wondering, was there something fundamentally different about how we handled Germany and Japan post WWII? Those were two extremely different bloodthirsty cultures and yet the U.S. helped them reconstruct their societies into productive and comparatively free nations. More recent efforts have been far from anything approaching satisfactory. Is it that we completely eliminated the toxic cultures in Japan and German? If so, then that may mean the eradication of Islam is required to enable the incubation of national neighbors fit for a civilized world.

    This would be the most important acknowledgment of all yet to be realized and the reason we will face this moment again and again until we do realize it.

    Gun Control Failure in Iran

    Posted on by

    Quote of the Day

    Iranian civilians certainly have a legitimate need to arm themselves. It is difficult to understand the horrors they face under the current Islamic regime. They can be arrested, jailed and tortured on mere suspicion. Their security forces can shoot them dead on the street for no reason without any fear of a legal response.

    While a $440 Turkish-made Colt .45 doesn’t provide the firepower required to save its owner from dozens of Iranian security forces armed with AKs, at least it offers the owner the ability to take a few with them.

    Lee Williams
    March 5, 2026
    Gun control in Iran was failing even before our first strike – Second Amendment Foundation

    Imagine a world in which the Iranian people had all the firearms they wanted before the 1979 revolution. Even if the Shah had not seen the light and implemented needed reforms before the citizens took up arms to persuade him, having arms after the revolution would have enabled “second thoughts” on the nature of the revolution.

    And, of course, having them now would make the removal of the current leadership much easier.

    Sure, as pointed out by Williams, the black market is supplying a few arms to the oppressed citizens. But having plentiful ammo and especially open training and practice opportunities is vital to having the skills to confidently put those tools to work.

    Krugman Test

    Posted on by

    Quote of the Day

    One shouldn’t exaggerate the economic fallout from this war. But it isn’t occurring in isolation: There are many stresses on our economy, and this could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back — a straw that becomes heavier the longer the war goes on. Furthermore, if Trump is this erratic now, what will he do as the midterms get even closer?

    Paul Krugman
    March 04, 2026
    Reality Sets In on Trump’s New War – Paul Krugman

    My general rule of thumb is if Krugman makes a prediction, then bet against whatever he said. Let this post be a marker to test my rule of thumb. I’ll add a post to go live in six months to see how his prediction turned out.