“Changes in Methodology” for Inflation Numbers

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In the past few months, political strategists have marveled at the fact that the economy under Biden was growing (at 3.2pc in the fourth quarter of 2024) but polling on Biden’s performance on the economy was dismal.

A recent paper led by former treasury of the secretary Larry Summers has helped clear up the discrepancy. Summers and his co-authors show that if we adjust American inflation data to consider changes in methodology that have taken place over the past few decades, we see inflation not peaking at 9pc, as the official data indicates, but rather at 18pc. The paper also suggests that inflation measured in line with historical norms would have been 8pc at the end of 2023, not the 3pc shown in the official statistics.

Philip Pilkington
April 5, 2024
The US Fed may kill the Biden presidency (msn.com)

As I suspected, the price of gold is a better measure of inflation than official government numbers.

Prepare appropriately.


14 thoughts on ““Changes in Methodology” for Inflation Numbers

  1. A “Dollar Ain’t a Dollar Any More”, and hasn’t been since before “The Union Boys” recorded that song in 1944.

    Inflation has been the method by which the big money boys keep the angry poor people off their doorsteps since 1933.

  2. Coins have reeding (the ridges on the edge) to prevent “Coin Clipping.” ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debasement#Methods ), an early form of “inflation” . Modern private banking is nothing more than systematic, widespread, pervasive theft via “inflation” that is high-tech coin clipping. Deliberately allowing inflation should be illegal and the bankers/government people involved flogged and jailed.

    (side note, reeding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reeding was invented by Sir Isaac Newton)

    • Interesting tidbit about Newton!
      In Holland, before the Euro, small coins had reading but the larger denomination ones (equivalent to a half dollar and higher) had the national motto written on the rim (“God zij met ons” — “God be with us”).

      On inflation: I’ve long held the view that the “2% target” is nothing more than “the most inflation politicians can get away with for an extended period”. There is no economically valid reason for that number. In fact, as Von Mises pointed out, the natural order, given real money and the fact that productivity increases, is for prices to decline gradually.

      • If inflation took place immediately, instantaneously, and uniformly there would be no point in doing it. No one would benefit.

        Wages, it seems, “benefit” last (or nearly last).

        The Cantillon effect is a feature, not a bug.

  3. Always. One has to change methods and outright lie every time your mouth opens because……. The entire system was created for them to steal your labor and wealth.
    And if they came out and told the truth they would get hanged.
    Our system is living proof that if you tell a lie giant enough. Everyone will believe it. And anyone that doesn’t gets slapped down hard. And called a fool by all the PhD’s in the neighborhood.
    Keynesian economics is only practiced because it allows the theft of your labor and control over your wealth. Through inflation/deflation cycles they can buy your labor for thin air and steal the value of your savings.
    But it has to reset, the debt has to be wiped out to start over. That’s where we find ourselves now. On the verge of reset.
    Unfortunately, that reset is also in your lifestyle expectations.
    One only need to read that the federal reserve private banking corporation had been in control of our money for less than 20 years. (And was created to stop depressions like the 1890’s one.) Before we were dropped into the “great depression” that had Roosevelt demanding everyone give up their gold savings for paper. At gun point.
    And resetting the lifestyles of almost everyone down to survival. Excepting those that could afford “conspicuous consumption”.
    Then starting a war to sink in the changes.
    The big change in method I see coming this time around will be the replacement of thinking people.
    If you know the difference between Keynesian and Austrian economics? They don’t need your services anymore. And you become a net negative on the balance sheet.
    What do you mean your checks wrong? The computer figured your taxes and it’s never wrong. It’s just the way auto-tax works. Call the AI hotline if you want. But a guy did that last week and they fired him. And now they won’t even let him charge his car. Him and his family are going to be in the cannibal caste by the end of the month.
    If I was you, I’d just make do with what they leave you.
    Ya, the methods about to change.

  4. The government LIED to us about inflation?! I’m shocked…shocked I tell you.

    • I have a bias against crypto currency, so take that into account with what I say…

      In inflationary times, especially hyperinflation, people sell (or try to sell) assets to get currency for food, rent, raw materials for manufacturing, etc. They sell in the order of things they can most do without to the most essential. Because nearly everyone is in need of currency the price of the assets being sold goes down. It crashes the stock market, house prices, etc.

      My guess is that bitcoin would be sold before most other assets perhaps including stocks and bonds.

    • Crypto currency is no different than the US dollar. It’s fabricated.
      It has no inherent value. In fact a dollar bill may be marginally better because it’s difficult to counterfeit whereas digital currency is only a secure as the people who created and run the system it exists in.
      ALL currencies require trust. That people trust the system that created it and the people who control that system. Which is why the US dollar was so highly favored for decades. Until the people in power became untrustworthy. The ONLY actual money that is 100% trustworthy is tangible. Something with inherent value like food or ammo or else something nearly impossible to counterfeit or create out of thin air…like gold and silver. Aside from PM’s and tangible products money is an idea. And ideas are not real, they only exist in the mind. They require faith and trust.

    • Bitcoin is a fiat money, except without the law backing what value it might have. I see it as a fun exercise in applied cryptography but I can’t imagine paying real, or even semi-real, money for it.

  5. Chris Williamson of Modern Wisdom interviewed Eric Weinsten recently. Eric describes the skulduggery behind changes to the CPI. Long form but well done.

  6. All fractional reserve systems are doomed to fail.
    This youtube video was informative, if long.

    Money as Debt I – Revised Edition 2009 (Full Movie)

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