Modeling Earthquakes

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Quote of the Day

Earthquakes are difficult to forecast but we’ve made great strides with this new model. The update includes more faults, better-characterized land surfaces, and computational advancements in modeling that provide the most detailed view ever of the earthquake risks we face.

image

Mark Petersen
USGS geophysicist
January 16, 2024
New map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US 

When the validity or failure of your model won’t be known for another century or two it is reasonably easy to be confident enough to sell your services and act convincing.

I don’t know if Petersen and company are knowingly unethical, and perhaps they really do have an earthquake model that is worth more than the bits of memory used to store it, but I have my doubts.

I trust this model even less than the climate models. Many of the forces are deep in the earth acting on materials with unmeasurable characteristics over time periods of 1000s of years.

It does match the “gut feel” of what might expect. And that is probably all that is necessary to get paid and become an “expert in the field”.

Doomsday Cult Puzzled that the Earth Still Exists

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The laws of thermodynamics dictate that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, but new research has found that atmospheric moisture has not increased as expected over arid and semi-arid regions of the world as the climate has warmed.

The findings are particularly puzzling because climate models have been predicting that the atmosphere will become more moist, even over dry regions. If the atmosphere is drier than anticipated, arid and semi-arid regions may be even more vulnerable to future wildfires and extreme heat than projected.

David Hosansky
January 17, 2024
Climate change isn’t producing expected increase in atmospheric moisture over dry regions: Study

After about the third paragraph I was laughing the rest of the way through the article.

There is no hint they would ever consider the possibility their climate heating models are flawed or that the mean global temperature is not increasing. It is like a doomsday cult predicting the end of the world on January 1, 2000 and when it doesn’t happen they don’t question the integrity of their prophet, but instead claim the destroyer gave them a second chance.

Read When Prophecy Fails: A Doomsday Cult on Alien Invasion for more insight on the behavior and psychology of these type of people. You might expect they would forsake their prophet when confronted with irrefutable evidence of the failure of the prophecies. But that is not what happens. Instead, most of the time, they will prophesize all the more vigorously.

I find the psychology absolutely fascinating.

And, of course, the same psychology exists within the gun grabber community.

Constitutional Protection of Rights Don’t End at Government Property Boundaries

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Would an indictment for failing to submit to a full body cavity search when showing up at the District of Columbia Department of Motor Vehicles to apply for a learner’s permit pass Fourth Amendment muster? Or could the United States charge the adherent of a non-favored religion with trespass for entering government property without offending the Free Exercise or Establishment Clauses? I think not.

Kathryn Kimball Mizelle
United States District Judge
January 12, 2024
United States of America v. Emmanuel Ayala

This decision came out of Tampa Florida. I am not a lawyer but I believe this decision means you can now carry a gun at Post Offices in the 11th Circuit. Furthermore, it seems to imply a postal employee cannot be fired for carrying a gun to work either.

FYI, Mizelle is a Trump appointed judge.

Arms Used for Military Purposes Constitutionally Protected

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Oregon citizens have a right to self-defense against an imminent threat of harm, which is unduly burdened by Ballot Measure 114.

Three salient facts were agreed upon by the parties at trial: A) Ballot Measure 114 delays the purchase of firearms for a minimum of 3Odays; B) the permit-to-purchase program derives
its language source in the concealed handgun license statutes (ORS 166.291, et.al); and C) the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) refuses to conduct criminal
background checks. The court finds these agreed to facts are fatal to the constitutionality of the permit-to-purchase scheme.

…

Ballot Measure 114, Section 11 is facially unconstitutional by a finding of clear and convincing evidence as demonstrated above. The court’s legal and factual conclusion is that Ballot Measure 114 does not increase public safety but diminishes it while creating nearly a million presumed misdemeanants. A result that is not reasonable under Article l, § 27 as defined by Oregon Supreme Court pursuant Christian.

Robert S. Raschio
24th Judicial District (Grant/Harney)
Presiding Circuit Court Judge
November 21, 2023
Measure 114 blocked by Oregon circuit court judge

Good stuff. I found reading the entire thing rather interesting. I was especially taken by something pointed out in the history section. Paraphrasing, all firearms which were in existence at the time the Oregon constitution was ratified are obviously protected by the constitution. As this was in 1857 multi-shot technology, such as Colt revolvers, were in present and in use in Oregon at that time.

Also, previous Oregon State Supreme Court analysis developed from an historical analysis and

In the end, the court concluded that the ‘arms’ that the state constitution guarantees a right to possess consist of those that would have been used by nineteenth-century settlers for personal defense and military purposes.

Emphasis added.

Oregon needs not just machine gun, but grenade launcher and hand grenade sporting events in their high school sporting events. Such activity would be protected by the 2nd Amendment as shown by both the Miller decision and the Oregon State Constitution.

The Most Reckless and Careless Gun Policy in the State’s History

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The mayor stood, frowning and grim, flanked by uniformed police officers. Another horrific gun crime had occurred — and it was all the fault of the state legislators who had recently repealed the law requiring a permit to carry a concealed weapon, what proponents call “constitutional carry.”

“The Republican-led legislature in Columbus passed SB 215 and across this state from Cleveland to Columbus to Cincinnati, you see an uptick in shootings across our state. . . . It’s important that we hold them accountable for passing dangerous gun laws in our state,” the mayor said, his angry voice rising above the roar of nearby freeway traffic.

“The most reckless and . . . careless gun policy in the state’s history,” the mayor said.

“It’s creating an arms race where people don’t feel safe unless they have a gun. So guns beget more guns, which, unfortunately, makes us all unsafe,” the mayor said.

But which mayor? The first quote was from Mayor Justin Bibb of Cleveland. The second one is from Mayor Andrew Ginther of Columbus. The arms-race quote was from Aftab Pureval, mayor of Cincinnati, on National Public Radio.

Ohio’s three biggest cities — they all got in with the same message: It’s not our fault; it’s the new state law.

There was only one problem: It wasn’t true.

My office commissioned a study with Bowling Green State University to examine gun crime in Ohio’s eight largest cities the year before the law changed — June 13, 2022 — and the year afterward. The conclusion: Eliminating concealed-carry licenses had no impact on gun crimes, and in six of the eight cities, gun crimes actually declined.

Dave Yost
January 10, 2024
Ohio Just Disproved a Gun-Control Talking Point

Is anyone surprised?

The anti-gun people lie. It is in their culture. You should expect them to lie even when there is nothing to be gained from it. To them, lies are easier to tell than the truth.

Not only did the total violent crime decrease, but the crimes committed with guns decreased as well. Again, no big surprise there. An armed society is a polite society. And nothing makes a violent criminal more polite than multiple jacketed hollow points.

Your Dick Grows With Each AR Purchase

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Dude…fuck off!! I articulated my points..you want to insult me, fuck off!!
You want to debate intelligently, then bring it…you want to call me names because you think your dick grows w/each AR purchase..then again, fuck off!!

Dave Lerch @DLerch22
Posted on X March 29, 2023

It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

Delusions are often functional. Lerch imagining he knows what other people think allows him to feel superior to them.

Anti-Gunners Crazy Beliefs

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Anti-gunners believe all kinds of crazy things which aren’t true. Those crazy beliefs do tend to have the common denominator of bolstering their sense of moral supremacy though.

gunsandrockets @GunsAndRockets1
Posted on X January 10, 2024

Part of their problem is they do not have a process for determining truth from falsity (Peterson Syndrome). They have a set of beliefs based on what they feel. If feelings do not match reality that does not matter. Their feelings, and therefore beliefs, remain intact.

A Message of ‘Repeal the 2nd Amendment’

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The Disarmament Regime is beginning to show signs of frustration as it shifts hard toward a message of ‘repeal the 2nd Amendment’. They know they cannot win within the existing framework. We must be more prepared than ever for what lies ahead.

Firearms Policy Coalition @gunpolicy
Posted on X February 17, 2023

On our current path, ultimately, we will win. But our opponents will try, and are trying, desperate measures.

Prepare appropriately.

What are His Intentions?

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He’s shown us that his solution to gun violence is give more people guns.

Wes Moore
Maryland Governor
January 9, 2023
Another Trump Presidency Would Lead to Gun Control Rollback, Maryland Governor Says

He says that like it is a bad thing. And, to a tiny extent, I agree with him. The government, in ordinary times, shouldn’t be giving guns away. It is a waste of tax payer money. If there is a surplus or there are obsolete firearms to dispose of they should be sold to the highest bidders.

In general one of the solutions to violent crime is the arming of the victims. Governor Moore wants the disarming of the victims. With a strong positive correlation between gun control and genocide and zero or negative correlation with violent crime reduction, one has to wonder about Governor Moore’s intentions. Is he just wanting to create a safe working environment for the street criminals? Or does he intend to go wholesale with a government demonstration of mass shootings?

In any case, prepare and respond appropriately.

They Wish it Were a Privilege

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NEW SECTION. Sec. 3. A new section is added to chapter 82.12 RCW to read as follows:

(1) A use tax is levied on every person in this state for the privilege of using ammunition as a consumer at the rate of 11 percent of the selling price.

HOUSE BILL 2238
State of Washington
January 9, 2024

Via an post on X to me from Chuck Petras @Chuck_Petras.

Just because they say it is a privilege does not make it a privilege.

This is clearly unconstitutional. Which, of course, makes it all the more attractive to the anti-freedom gang.

I look forward to their trials.

Shutting down the FBI & ATF

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I’ll shut down the FBI & ATF and here’s one more reason why. A voter in Iowa recently reminded me of the story of Ruby Ridge & the Weaver family. In 1992, Randy Weaver sold a sawed-off shotgun to a federal informant & was then surrounded at his cabin for refusing to appear in court. First they killed his dog, then they shot & killed his son, *14-year-old* Samuel Weaver. His wife, Vicki, also was shot & killed by an FBI sniper while holding their 10-month-old daughter inside their house. Weaver was later acquitted & awarded a $3mm settlement by the DOJ. Another classic case of entrapment & a disproportionate, politicized abuse of federal police power. I will *shut down* toxic 3-letter agencies like the FBI & ATF that are beyond the point of incremental “reform,” using my Constitutional authority as U.S. President to do it.

Vivek Ramaswamy @VivekGRamaswamy
Posted on X January 9, 2024

I would vote for that.

A Sign of Deconsolidating Democracy

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When each side starts talking about the other as a threat to democracy — whatever the reality is — that’s a sign of a democracy that’s deconsolidating.

Daniel Ziblatt
January 7, 2024
A government professor at Harvard University and co-author of the book How Democracies Die
One attack, two interpretations: Biden and Trump both make the Jan. 6 riot a political rallying cry | Kansas City Star

Reading the book description on Amazon indicates it is a far from objective book. It was released in January of 2019 and appears to be aimed squarely at former President Trump:.

The good news is that there are several exit ramps on the road to authoritarianism. The bad news is that, by electing Trump, we have already passed the first one.

I just want to move into my bunker in Idaho, stock and grow food, reload ammo, and practice long range shooting.

No Theory of Mind

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You dare accuse me of fake bravado when you’re going to Walmart with your big gun strapped to your leg trying to fool everyone that if you have a big gun you must have a big dick. Boy are they going to be disappointed.

…

I’m going to take your silence as confirmation of a small penis.

Two Cent Tony @TonyLeighton8
Posted on X March 29, 2023

It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

It is truly amazing the deficiency in theory of mind these people have. Many primates and even ravens could do better than this guy.

Bullets Versus Cell Phones

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Via an email from Jacob at Widener’s Reloading & Shooting Supply.

Mythbusting: Cell Phone Stop A Bullet? – Wideners Shooting, Hunting & Gun Blog

There’s a brutal difference between fact and fiction. The things we see in the entertainment industry may look cool on screen but have no basis in reality. For example, in Hitchcock’s The 39 Steps, Richard Hannay’s (Robert Donat) life is saved when a hymnal in his pocket stops an assassin’s bullet. This popular trope has been used and reused many times over the years with a variety of objects all conveniently being able to stop a bullet.

Unfortunately, in the real world, we’ve all seen reports of shootings occurring in public locations. Many of which have been designated as “gun-free zones.” Fortunately for some, nearby objects and personal effects have prevented bullets from impacting their intended target. One of the personal items commonly reported on in these situations is the cell phone.

Will a cell phone stop a bullet? The team here at Widener’s decided to test this myth, take a look at what we discovered below.

Short answer, “No. You are still going to get hurt or killed after the bullet, even .22 LR goes through your cell phone.”

It was, as always, fun to see the video of bullets blasting through stuff.

Everytown Bogus Research

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One of the signals this is bogus research is the way Everytown graded Washington State, where the Citizens Committee is headquartered. Washington is position ninth on the list, and is described as ‘making progress.’ The state has adopted increasingly restrictive gun laws in recent years, and the number of homicides has more than doubled since 2014, according to FBI data and statistics from the Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs. Seattle just set a new homicide record in 2023. If that’s what Everytown calls ‘making progress,’ we would be better off going back to living in caves.

The only conclusion one can draw is that Everytown is far more interested in restricting the rights of honest citizens than it is in reducing violent crime or taking violent criminals off the street.

Alan Gottlieb
CCRKBA Chairman
January 5, 2024
CCRKBA SAYS EVERYTOWN CLAIM THAT STRICT GUN LAWS SAVE LIVES IS BOGUS | Citizens Committee For The Right To Keep And Bear Arms

This claim is assessed as True.

The big tell in almost antigun organizations claims is when they refer to “Gun Violence” statistics and completely ignore criminal violence committed by thugs using other types of weapons and unarmed violence..

“Gun violence” includes justified shootings in self defense by police and/or private citizens, and people who committed or attempted suicide with a gun. And, most importantly, it ignores sky high violence rates against people unable to defend themselves by exercising their specific enumerate right to keep and bear arms.

One could ask, as I have done many times, if the shift was intentional or negligent. I have never received a straight answer. This tells me it is intentional.

These people are deliberate liars. Respond and prepare appropriately.

Lying By Omission

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Man who made billions out of death and killing dies at the age of 94 (msn.com)

It is unknown exactly how many people have died as a result of Glock handguns.

…

The first mass shooting believed to involve a Glock handgun was in 1991 when George Jo Hennard shot 24 people and injured 27. He fired two guns, including a Glock 17, at diners in Luby’s Cafeteria, Killeen, Texas.

…

This list is exhausting, but not exhaustive.

It is very telling that no mention was made of the millions of innocent lives saved using handguns with the name Glock on the slide.

No Words

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I don’t have any words beyond via Chuck Petras @Chuck_Petras

Just Enforce the Existing Laws

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‘Your husband or your guns’ (jpfo.org)

Florida’s powerful preemption statute prohibits any state, county, city or other public entity from regulating firearms by “enacting or causing to be enforced any local ordinance or administrative rule or regulation” that regulates arms. Only the state legislature has such regulatory authority, the statute mandates. Any public official who violates the preemption statute can face removal from office and up to $5,000 in fines, which the statute requires them to pay personally.

As the agency head and chief administrative officer, Charlotte County Sheriff Prummell is personally responsible for any illegal rules or policies that violate preemption. Sheriff Prummell did not respond to calls or emails seeking an interview for this story.

This is not the first time Prummell has been accused of violating the civil rights of his constituents.

In 2019, it was learned his office had been compiling an illegal registry of gun owners by using a pawn shop database, which is a felony. Florida state law prohibits any government agency from “knowingly and willfully keep or cause to be kept any list, record, or registry of privately owned firearms or any list, record, or registry of the owners of those firearms.” The database Prummell’s deputies created contained the names of people who pawned guns and a description of the firearms, which included their serial numbers.

At the time, neither State Attorney Fox nor Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody chose to prosecute or even investigate these allegations.

This doesn’t even bring the federal laws 18 USC 241 and 242 into play. These crimes would stop very rapidly if they would just enforce the existing laws.

MN Gun Owners Caucus @mnguncaucus

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A horribly written law that would make criminals out of careful, law-abiding citizens is not a solution to the tremendous problem we face with gun violence and firearm accidents. Publicly supported and funded, age-appropriate firearm safety education ought to be a part of it.

Brad Johnson
Anoka County Attorney
Letter to state representative Jaime Becker-Finn.

Via MN Gun Owners Caucus @mnguncaucus on April 3, 2023.

We must recognize we have allies in government.

It wasn’t too long ago that I read a book about the resistance to Nazi’s in Italy. A young woman got a job as a maid and nanny to a Nazi officer and his wife. She was also a spy who obtained information which was smuggled to the allies which was used to save countless lives. As the Nazis were retreating out of Italy local “patriots” rounded up the Nazis and collaborates they could find and killed them without trials. The young woman was among them.

Rats Leaving the Burning Ship?

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NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre is resigning.

For a more toxic views see:

From the Wall Street Journal article:

LaPierre and the NRA have said the group has embarked on a major “course correction” by terminating certain vendors, promoting a whistleblower to its top financial job and eliminating virtually all related-party transactions with board members. Since the New York investigation began, LaPierre has repaid the NRA nearly $1 million for some of the private-jet flights, gifts and other “excess benefits” he received, legal filings show.

It is probably was far short of the compensation he and many others should have given but it is worth something. Perhaps the organization can rebuild itself with a better focus on the important principles.

Via text from Mike B.:

Rats leaving the burning ship?