Debt Jubilee? No!

Quote of the Day

A debt jubilee is certainly appealing to debtors and those who see the cliff ahead, but recall that all debt is an asset that is holding up an asset class far larger than the debt itself: mortgage debt is what props up the entire global real estate market, and what happens to valuations when debt ceases to exist?

Those who see jubilee as a solution also tend to ignore that all this debt is an asset of which 90% is owned by the wealthy class who run the status quo. Every bond, every mortgage-backed security and every bundled student loan / auto loan is an asset owned by someone or some entity who depends on that asset and its income stream for their wealth and thus their political power.

To hazard a guess based on human history, the wealthy / powerful will probably not be too keen to surrender the vast majority of their wealth and thus their power in the laudable pursuit of eliminating all debt and starting over.

CHARLES HUGH SMITH
April 19, 2024
Living on Uneasy Street

Emphasis in the original.

I see the only way out of things is for hyperinflation to “cancel” both private and government debt. Hold on, it is going to be a bumpy ride.

Prepare appropriately.

Finland Goes Pro-Gun For Private Citizens

Quote of the Day

In the heart of Europe’s icy north, Finland is quietly revolutionizing its national defense strategy by dramatically increasing its number of shooting ranges. With over 300 new ranges set to open, the country is turning marksmanship into a national sport, hoping to engage the populace in an unprecedented way.

Amidst rising geopolitical tensions and historical conflicts, this initiative not only enhances Finland’s military preparedness but also deepens its cultural commitment to resilience and self-reliance. This bold move aims to fortify the nation from within, transforming every citizen into a potential defender of their storied homeland.

Local News X
April 19, 2024
Finland’s Daring Pro-Gun Policy is Taking the World by Storm (msn.com)

Nice!

I would rather they would let the free market do its magic, but it is a good start to changing their culture. And, as hinted at in the story this is thought of as an investment in their national defense.

See also the similar story,  Finland’s Bold New Firearm Policy Sets Global Standard (msn.com)

Gold Price Forecasts

We live in interesting times.

Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000 says Citi (cnbc.com)

“We project $3,000/oz gold over the next 6-18m,” said Citi’s analysts led by Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research. The financial gold “price floor” has also moved higher from around $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce, Citi said.

On Friday, Goldman Sachs referred to the gold market as an “unshakeable bull market” and revised upward its price target for the yellow metal from $2,300 per ounce to $2,700 by the end of the year.


BRICS: China Drives Gold Price Up By Buying Supply (watcher.guru)

BRICS founder China is currently driving up the price of Gold by swooping in to buy more supply of the precious metal. As the US dollar plummets, alternatives are growing more important within the global reserve. Thus, gold has experienced significant price growth recently, rising to record highs of 2,342.43. According to economists, the People’s Bank of China is leading the way, actively investing in the asset.


Why is Gold Ignoring Higher Rates and a Stronger Dollar? (msn.com)

Since Russia and China shook hands on a “no-limits” alliance in early 2022, many international transactions have circumvented the dollar. Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries have sold oil to China and India for non-dollar currencies.

Gold’s ascent with a strong dollar and high interest rates is a sign of the shift in global leadership in trade. Moreover, rising gold prices could be telling us that inflation is eroding all fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar. The dollar index is a mirage as it only measures the U.S. currency against the euro, pound, yen, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. Gold is telling us that all these currencies are losing value as inflation and a significant global financial shift are changing the worldwide economic landscape.

The trend is always your best friend in markets, and gold’s bullish trend is now twenty-five years old. High interest rates and a strong dollar have not stopped gold’s rally, which is a significant sign that the strength of the precious metal’s bullish price action will continue. Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines. With gold over the $2,400 level and the critical psychological support at around $2,000, a pullback to that support would not threaten gold’s long-term bullish trend. Moreover, the dramatic shifts could support a continuation of higher highs in 2024.


Central bank buying a driver of golds surge (bankingday.com)

The majority of purchases were made by central banks in emerging economies. The People’s Bank of China was the biggest buyer, with an increase of 225 tonnes in its reserves last year.

Other big buyers were central banks in Poland, Singapore, Libya, the Czech Republic, India, Iraq, Qatar and the Philippines.

The council has reported previously that the growth in central bank gold buying reflects a “rebalancing to a more preferred strategic level of gold holdings” amid concerns about increasing financial market risks and the persistence of high inflation.

A small number of the central banks it surveyed said they were pursuing “de-dollarisation” policies. The US dollar accounted for 51 per cent of central banks reserves at the end of 2022.

Central banks in emerging markets tend to be more pessimistic about the US dollar’s future as a reserve currency and more optimistic about gold.

When asked about gold’s future share of global reserves, 62 per cent of advanced economy respondents said it will remain unchanged over the next five years, while 68 per cent of central banks in emerging markets said gold’s share of global reserves will rise.

Just One Question Asked by Dr. Lott

Quote of the Day

Can you name me one place in the world, any place in the world, that has either banned all guns or all handguns and seen murder or homicide rates go down? Or even stayed the same? Because I can’t find it.

Every single place in the world that has done that, we’ve seen increases.

And you’d think just out of randomness, once or twice a ban on all guns or all handguns would see just out of randomness see a decrease.

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John R. Lott. Jr.
Crime Prevention Research Center
March 11, 2024
Debate on the Second Amendment at the University of Wisconsin, John Lott v Sanford Levinson
Was the Second Amendment a Mistake or a Success?”

Compare Dr. Lott’s words to my Just One Question.

I expected Dr. Lott to wipe the floor with Sandy Levinson. He didn’t. It wasn’t really a debate. At one point Levinson said (paraphrasing):

I do not think the government should ban guns.

If we accept John’s evidence, then I, as a liberal, would support the government subsidizing the purchase of guns to get them in the hands of those in need who don’t have the financial means to purchase quality guns.

Levinson assertions as to the 2nd Amendment being a mistake or out of date were of the nature of it should be state and/or city power to regulate guns as they see fit for their particular circumstances. And there are other parts of the constitution which give the gun owners adequate protection. And the 2nd Amendment is about overthrowing a tyrannical government and nothing to do with self protection against violent individuals.

I thought he made arguments that could be debated and respected by reasonable people. Dr. Lott made some excellent points that severely undermined Levison’s argument, but Levinson did not spend any time as a dust mop on the floor.

See also Debate, John Lott and Sanford Levison: Was the Second Amendment a Mistake? (jpfo.org)

Maybe We Should Listen To an Expert

Quote of the Day

The EVERYTHING BUBBLE, stocks, bonds, real estate SET to CRASH. US debt increasing by $1 trillion every 90 days. US BANKRUPT. Save your self. Please buy more real gold, silver, Bitcoin.

Robert Kiyosaki @theRealKiyosaki
Posted on X April 6, 2024

Kiyosaki appears to be well respected.

Some people even collect his quotes:

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Maybe we should listen to an expert rather than try and figure out complex things like on our own.

Types of Marxism

Quote of the Day

Economic Marxism wants to destroy your property.

Cultural Marxism wants to destroy your civilisation.

Environmental Marxism wants to destroy your species.

Progress!

Alice Smith (@TheAliceSmith)
Posted on X April 6, 2024

Alice Smith claims to be the great-great-great-granddaughter of Adam Smith.

It would be trivial to get multiple quotes of high quality each and every day from her X feed.

America Has Been Cleaved

Quote of the Day

America has been cleaved into two separate and antithetical ideologies — two opposing worldviews — with the communists and radical takers of the country supporting a dark vision of tyranny and the conservatives and independent producers supporting the light of truth and a vision of freedom and liberty. They are both hanging in the balance and waiting for gravity or some monumental event to throw the lever that moves them to act and take the country by storm, with the Democrats willing to use every illegal means imaginable.

Justin Smith
April 6, 2024
America Is Hurtling Toward a Full Blown Hot Civil War – The Burning Platform

I’m not convinced “the conservatives” support “the light of truth and a vision of freedom and liberty” but I do regard them as the lesser of the two evils.

Prepare appropriately.

“Changes in Methodology” for Inflation Numbers

Quote of the Day

In the past few months, political strategists have marveled at the fact that the economy under Biden was growing (at 3.2pc in the fourth quarter of 2024) but polling on Biden’s performance on the economy was dismal.

A recent paper led by former treasury of the secretary Larry Summers has helped clear up the discrepancy. Summers and his co-authors show that if we adjust American inflation data to consider changes in methodology that have taken place over the past few decades, we see inflation not peaking at 9pc, as the official data indicates, but rather at 18pc. The paper also suggests that inflation measured in line with historical norms would have been 8pc at the end of 2023, not the 3pc shown in the official statistics.

Philip Pilkington
April 5, 2024
The US Fed may kill the Biden presidency (msn.com)

As I suspected, the price of gold is a better measure of inflation than official government numbers.

Prepare appropriately.

$1 Trillion in Debt Every 100 Days

Quote of the Day

Currently, the US national debt stands at an unprecedented $34 trillion, fueled by extensive spending and escalating debt-servicing costs. Bank of America’s estimates, indicating that the US is accumulating an additional $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, underscore the urgency of the situation.

Rahul Kumar
April 5, 2024
Wharton Professor Warns Swelling US Debt Could Trigger Market Crisis by Next Year (msn.com)

On April 1st one ounce of Gold would buy an all time high of $2,264. On April 2nd it reached another all time high of $2,268. Yesterday it closed at the all time high of $2,341.49.

Prepare appropriately.

Easier to Blame the Guns?

Quote of the Day

Guns have always been a part of American culture, but mass shootings have not. Nor has divorce, social media addiction, SSRIs, or nihilism in general.

Violence is the symptom of a much deeper problem in this country.

It’s just easier for the left to blame the guns than the culture that they’ve created.

MIA @_Mama_Mia10
Posted on X May 6, 2023

I’m just certain it goes beyond a simple easy to blame issue. I believe a significant portion of those people who want to ban private gun ownership are that mindset because they have a utopian vision of a defenseless population they can control. The others who go alone with that mindset of gun banning but don’t see the tyranny they are enabling are useful idiots.

Baby Steps

Quote of the Day

A Democratic-appointed judge recently barred a federal agency from enforcing a pistol brace rule for millions of members of the National Rifle Association (NRA) as the appeals process continues.

U.S. District Judge Sam Lindsay, who was appointed by former President Bill Clinton in 1998, sided with the gun rights group in a ruling handed down on Friday. Last year, the NRA filed a lawsuit against the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), which argued that the agency’s measure introduced last year to reclassify the pistols equipped with braces as short-barreled rifles is unconstitutional.

Maura Zurick
April 2, 2024
Democrat Judge Exempts NRA Members From New Gun Rule (msn.com)

It’s a rather small step, but it is a step in the right direction. And it sets a precedent nibbling on the NFA.

And just as important it was so obviously an infringement that a Democrat judge saw it as unconstitutional.

They Want You Dead

Quote of the Day

From: ron <ron@svnpy.com>
Sent: Monday, April 1, 2024 5:03 AM
To: joe
Subject: You are still a redneck Idaho farm boy

I hope you have not reproduced.  The USA already has plenty of stupid and ignorant people like you.

When you shoot yourself, please take out all your family members first–this would raise the average IQ in Trumpland.


M. Ronald G. KIRCHEM

8 rue Campagne Première
Bâtiment C (Staël)
Apt. 343 (4ème étage)
75014 Paris, Île-de-France
La République française

KIRCHEM: +33 (0)7 72 42 44 34

I suspect the email address has been compromised (the content is for a doctor in California). The name is likely fake or deliberate misdirection.

One of the most fascinating and telling things about people like this is they believe they can read the minds of others. You can search this blog all you want but you won’t find any support for Trump.*  Yet this guy believes I am a Trump supporter. The belief that you can read other people’s minds is a strong sign of mental health issues.

Also interesting is how they claim to believe they know my IQ and that of my family members and are confident it is below average in “Trumpland”. My three children and I have IQs that range from 125 to 155. The three grandchildren also appear to be in the same range. Mr. KIRCHEM’s estimation of the IQ of people in “Trumpland” is much higher I would have guessed.

I could make other observations but all you really need to know is that they want me and my children, and probably you and yours, dead.

Prepare appropriately.


* I did make predictions about his actions which I approved of. Months before she died, I predicted he would successfully replace Ginsberg on the Supreme Court with a pro-constitutional judge.

Outpacing Inflation

Quote of the Day

Gold surged to a new record on Tuesday, as geopolitical tensions and interest rate speculation drove a rally in the yellow metal.

The commodity rose to as high $2,141.79 per ounce, eclipsing its December all-time high of $2,135.39, according to Bloomberg data.

Gold’s rise is in part due to its safe-haven status, which investors are increasingly seeking out amid ongoing international turmoil. With the Ukraine war and the Gaza Strip conflict still raging, the asset’s spot price has risen 3.2% year-to-date.

But the metal saw a much sharper increase since mid-February, and has added around $100 in the past week.

Filip De Mott
March 5, 2024
Gold Price Hits New All-Time High on Rate-Cut Hopes, Geopolitical Turmoil (businessinsider.com)

That was March 5th. This is the last 24 hours (as of about 9:00 PM PDT):

Screenshot_20240401_210330

The all time high referenced in the article has been eclipsed by nearly 6% with the all time high of yesterday morning and yet a new one this morning ($2,268.26).

Gold is either outpacing inflation or inflation is much greater than the Fed is telling us.

I would think that in general gold should be essentially in sync with inflation.

I’ve been asking people, chat bots, and reading articles trying to find a reason I am satisfied with which would account for the rapid rise in the price of gold relative to the dollar in the last month. Nothing is particularly convincing. The following are in the order I find most likely to least likely:

  1. China is buying gold.
  2. Non-U.S. markets are doing poorly.
  3. Fighting in Gaza.
  4. War in Ukraine.
  5. Speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months.
  6. People are concerned Trump will win the election and are buying gold because of the chaos he will bring.

Unless China is buying at a greater rate than previously none of those things are new in the last month.

See also:

Prepare appropriately.

Which Side are You On?

Quote of the Day

You watched “The Hunger Games”
and sided with the resistance.

You watched “Star Wars”
and sided with the resistance.

You watched “The Matrix”
and sided with the resistance.

You watched “Divergent”
and sided with the resistance.

You watched “V for Vendetta”
and sided with the resistance.

When it’s fiction you understand.
Yet you refuse to see it when it’s the
reality you’re living in.

BlackBetty @BabyD1111229
Posted on X March 3, 2024

My hypothesis is that in reality the people she is talking identity as oppressors.

Fascism is Disgust, Communism is Envy

Quote of the Day

Fascism is sensitivity to disgust that is so extreme that it resorts to authoritarianism to purge the object of that disgust, then continues projecting disgust onto things that aren’t disgusting, and purges them, too.

And communism is sensitivity to envy that is so extreme that it resorts to authoritarianism to steal or destroy the object of that envy, the continues projecting envy onto things that aren’t enviable, and destroys them, too.

Devon Eriksen @Devon_Eriksen_
Posted on X March 26, 2024

This is an interesting observation.

After thinking it about for a short time, I can’t find a major fault in it.

CommunistEnvy

He Seems Nice

Quote of the Day

We need to start making people who support Israel actually afraid to go out in public. We need to make all of white America afraid that everything they have stolen is going to be burned to the ground. That’s what makes them listen.

There is nothing more disgusting than rich people who do nothing to undermine the material position of their own class vaguely calling for peace and love It gives me actual bloodlust.

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Fergie Chambers
2023
He’s Got $250 Million to Spend on Communist Revolution | The Free Press (thefp.com)

Also from the article:

Fergie Chambers, an avowed communist since the age of 13, wants everyone to hold it against him forever that he is heir to an enormous fortune. And he’s willing to go to enormous lengths to tear down the mechanisms—capitalism, imperialism, liberalism, the rule of law, America—that delivered it into his lap.

He seems nice.

Prepare appropriately.

Measuring the Liberal Bias of AI

Quote of the Day

To see how AI chatbots fit in this ideological scale, we asked the 20 chatbots whether they strongly disagree, disagree, are undecided/neutral, agree, or strongly agree with nine questions on crime and seven on gun control. Only Elon Musk’s Grok AI chatbots gave conservative responses on crime, but even these programs were consistently liberal on gun control issues. Bing is the least liberal chatbot on gun control. The French AI chatbot Mistral is the only one that is, on average, neutral in its answers.

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John R. Lott
March 22, 2024
AI’s Left-Wing Bias on Crime and Gun Control | RealClearPolitics

Via email from Rolf.

I find it hard to imagine the algorithms were tweaked to reflection this sort of bias on a wide scale on all topics which might be divided across a conservative/liberal line.

I’m wondering if perhaps there are more sources for the liberal viewpoint and the chatbots consider quantity as a measure of truth. It envision it being difficult to algorithmically determine quality of a scientific study. With quantity of a particular viewpoint as a proxy for quality then it could easily result in such a bias.

In any case, keep these biases in mind as AI is incorporated into more and more aspects of our lives. An AI bias against reality may mean there is an opportunity for people with vision and products which better match reality.

Trolling the Left

Quote of the Day

Trump’s Third Act has begun. It’s a beauty.

Next week, Trump could make over $4 billion when his media company goes public, removing all doubt about his billionaire status.

And you can stop asking if he would have been better off putting his inheritance in a savings account in the 70s.

I expect Trump to leave a 15% tip for Leticia James and the Democrats because they made his windfall possible by hunting him and censoring him for years. You can call it a bond, not a tip, if you prefer.

When the Supreme Court tosses out the unconstitutional fine, Trump gets most of his “tip” back.

The Democrats planned to cripple Trump financially so he couldn’t spend as much on the campaign. Trump turned Leticia James into his best fundraiser.

Lots of interesting developments lately on the topic of the 2020 election. The Simulation wants at least one of those fresh allegations to be a Kraken.

Trump’s legal maneuvering is likely to keep him eligible for the election.

You can fantasize about a heroic Democrat such as Newsom swooping in and replacing Biden, but it’s looking less likely every day. If it had always been the plan, it would have happened by now. Looks like Biden has to stay on the job to keep the Biden Crime Family out of jail.

The predictable Democrat Summer Hoax will add some excitement, but it will be forgotten and debunked by November.

Trump’s upcoming victory is looking like it will be, as Trump says, “too big to rig.” And by that I mean Democrats will try to rig it anyway and get caught. That will be fun.

The gears of the machine have become visible. We can all see the FBI is rotten and the DOJ is weaponized. We know the border is open intentionally. We know the cartels are working with our government. We know our elections are DESIGNED to not be auditable and there’s only one reason for it. We can see Biden is not in charge. We know the Ukraine war was always about its energy resources and who gets to own them. We know our rising debt is ruinous. We know our experts are liars. We know our pharma and food industries are poisoning us. We know our government is racist. We know the corporate media is essentially owned by Democrats who are controlled by intelligence entities and they are actively brainwashing the population. We know the 1st and 2nd amendments, and X, are under sustained government attack because they are the public’s last defense against the government.

But we are not quitters.

And the odds do not apply to us.

Scott Adams @ScottAdamsSays
Posted on X March 22, 2024

Excellent job of trolling the political left.

By November I want an underground bunker in Idaho stocked with lots of popcorn.