Reality is tough

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You hear the phrase “two movies, one screen”, right? People perceive what they expect/want to perceive. This makes it really tough to be in touch with reality. You may think, “Not for me!” I’m not so sure. Watch and listen to this:

These sort of things demonstrate the difficulty of distinguishing between truth and falsity. It takes a great deal of effort to change minds, even when the facts are overwhelming, because people’s brains get hardwired into thinking about something in a particular way.

My mom learned to do subtraction in a different way that what was taught in my elementary school. She could not help me learn how to subtract like Mrs. Cole was teaching it. She asked Dad to help me. After I learned to subtract I asked Mom to show me her way. It was incomprehensible to me. Dad could not understand it either. She got the right answers, but she could not understand our method either.

I came up with a different way of viewing exterior ballistics problems. Someone who was taught the traditional way is completely confused by my method. I understand how they do it but my way is simpler and has broader application. I can teach either way to newbies just fine. But teaching it to someone who has done it conventionally will result in their total confusion.

It’s obvious to some people that banning guns will save lives. The facts don’t matter because elimination of “gun deaths” mean fewer people are dying, right? Their brains have become hardwired down a particular path. Once they start down that path it is a slippery slope to the same conclusion regardless of the factual obstacles presented.

Spooky action at a distance is a very difficult concept. It just “can’t be true”. But it is.

Socialism/communism must be the most tested and failed political system ever. Yet people believe the false reality.

Reality is really, really tough. For everyone. I’m sure there are countless examples all around us that no one has yet properly deciphered and we all believe one or more flavors of falsehood about it. It may even take a generation or two after the truth is discovered before people are comfortable thinking in terms of the “new reality” and people laugh at “the things people used to believe”.

Quote of the day—Walrus @ThrowawayGaming

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If nobody is armed, nobody will be oppressed. I’m sorry, but the state needs to come down hard on dissenters, which is Republican gun owners.

Walrus @ThrowawayGaming
Tweeted on March 28, 2022
[For several minutes I looked at his posts to see if I could confirm this is a parody account. Nope, insufficient evidence.

I didn’t know stupid was available in this dense of packaging. Two sentences, one impossible proposition, two falsehoods, one proposed unconstitutional act, and the second sentence contradicts the first.

I couldn’t pack that much nonsense into two sentences if I worked on it for an hour. And all without long practice with a parody account. That takes extraordinary talent in the crap for brains department.—Joe]

All electric cars in Washington state

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As an electrical engineer I find this “interesting”:

Washington state plans to ban most non-electric vehicles by 2030, according to a newly signed bill by Gov. Jay Inslee.

The bill says that all vehicles of the model year 2030 or later that are sold, purchased, or registered in the state must be electric.

As the next year’s model come out in the fall the target for their mandate will be in a little over seven years. I don’t think the electrical infrastructure can be upgraded to handle the new load in time. This will be especially true if the leftist politicians pushing to remove many of the hydroelectric dams are successful.

It is my belief they hope to bring wind and solar online. But those sources are intermittent. Those cars are going to be lower in the priority que than heating and lighting homes and offices. If you pull into the charging station during peak usage in early January with little wind and almost no solar for a few days you could be told you won’t be able to recharge until the wind blows from the south again so the heating load isn’t so high. Perhaps in a week or two. Or maybe you can find a black market diesel generator if you know who to ask and have the cash to pay for it.

My guess is that one of two things will happen.

  1. The politicians who voted for things like this mandate, the anti-business regulations, the schools teaching math is racist, and the oppressive gun laws will be unable to maintain the required margin of fraud in future elections and the oppressive laws will be repealed.
  2. The productive and freedom loving residents will leave the state and the state will spiral down into an economic abyss resembling downtown Seattle and Detroit. I.e., an Atlas Shrugged like scenario.

I often wonder if the economic destruction authoritarians create is due to obliviousness, maliciousness, or a deliberate gamble that things will somehow recover from their reign of power.

We live in interesting times. Prepare appropriately.

Layers of fact checkers

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NASA: Giant asteroid to pay Earth a visit today; it will come horrifically close to our planet. How many errors or exaggerations can we find in this article? I found three:

There is always a risk that even the slightest deviation from its path will result in the asteroid being trapped by Earth’s gravitational pull, causing it to strike our planet.

…

The asteroid will make its closest approach to Earth at a distance of 1,580,000 kilometers.

…

An interesting fact about 2022 FH is that it has a large deposit of silica, which is used in making silicon chips. With a global shortage of silicon chips, asteroids like these can be extremely crucial to mankind to conduct extraterrestrial mining mission.

The asteroid is not wandering around sniffing the trees on either side of a path and giving consideration to chasing a squirrel like a dog. The path is determined by it’s current direction, velocity, and the gravitational fields it is exposed to. These are all well known quantities. The asteroid is not going to deviate toward earth in an unexpected manner.

I don’t consider 1.58 million kilometers “horrifically close”. This is over four times the distance from the earth to the moon. Inside the moon’s orbit is something I would consider calling “horrifically close”.

The real whopper is the conflation of shortage of silicon chips with a shortage of silica. On earth silica is better known as sand:

However, the foremost common mineral within the sand is quartz–also referred to as silica.

As you might imagine silicon is rather common on Earth:

Silicon makes up 25.7% of the earth’s crust, by weight, and is the second most abundant element, being exceeded only by oxygen.

It’s going to be a more than a few years before it makes economic sense to mine asteroids for silicon to make electronic parts.

I would like to suggest the author of this clickbait provide services for used car dealerships and/or politicians rather than pretend dispensing technical news.

For the rest of us, this is another example of the unreliability of news sources. Keep this in mind whenever you read or hear anything. Reality is really really tough even when you are trying to get at the truth. And many people don’t even put minimal effort into it.

Quote of the day—Lee Williams

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During her Senate confirmation hearings, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) asked, “Do you believe the individual right to keep and bear arms is a fundamental right?”

Judge Jackson’s response is telling: “Senator, the Supreme Court has established that the individual right to keep and bear arms is a fundamental right.”

She did not say the right to keep and bear arms was enshrined in the Constitution. Nor did she say it’s part of our God-given right to self-defense. Instead, she believes the RKBA was “established” by the Supreme Court. That, friends, is a judicial philosophy taken straight from the pages of Gun Banning 101.

Lee Williams
March 28, 2022
Come on, man. Of course, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is anti-gun
[I also was struck by the odd wording when Chuck Petras @Chuck_Petras tweeted Judge Jackson’s response to me. And, I’m nearly certain, she wasn’t referring to this SCOTUS declaration:

This is not a right granted by the Constitution. Neither is it in any manner dependent upon that instrument for its existence. The second amendment declares that it shall not be infringed; but this, as has been seen, means no more than that it shall not be infringed by Congress.

That said, I’m not sure any Senators are going to expend the political capital to make a big deal out of opposing her nomination. Those in tight elections might well see opponents shriek, “Senator Racist voted against confirming the first black woman to the Supreme Court!”. It is probably better that they save their ammo for legislative votes with less baggage and more immediate and direct consequences.—Joe]

Eat your lentils

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Low folate levels associated with dementia and mortality:

Among the individuals with insufficient amounts of folate, the rates of dementia were 3.4%. The rates of death from any cause came in just under 8%.

The participants without the deficiency experienced rates of dementia of 3.2%, and the all-cause death rates amounted to almost 4%.

After factoring in co-occurring conditions, such as diabetes, vitamin B12 deficiency, cognitive decline, and depression, the researchers associated folate deficiency with a 68% higher risk of a dementia diagnosis.

Lentils are a great source of folate:

Did you know? Out of all plant-based foods, lentils contain the most folate!

Lentils are an excellent source of folate. A type of B-vitamin, folate helps support red blood cell formation and proper nerve functions. Folate also plays an important role in lowering artery-damaging homocysteine. In addition, the water-soluble vitamin may help prevent anemia and protect against developing heart disease, cancer, and dementia. Folate is particularly important for women of childbearing age, as it is needed to support increasing maternal blood volume.

I also should note that my brothers raise lentils on the farm and I frequently transport 50 and 100 pound bags of lentils to the Seattle area for sale (and donation to a food bank) at near my own cost.

Quote of the day—Ellen Spencer 1 @ellenspencer03

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Ridiculous arguments that have nothing to do with assault rifles. But to your point, shall we castrate men who rape/kill innocent women? Its hardly a punishment to ban these guns…there are other ways to prove your ‘manhood’. But good job proving your weirdness.

Ellen Spencer 1 @ellenspencer03
Tweeted on March 4, 2022
[It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

I find it amusing that she apparently was not only unable to comprehend my point, but also ran out of insults and had to repeat herself (see the first time here).—Joe]

Never let a crisis go to waste

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COVID enabled authoritarians to expand their power:

An appeals court sided with the governor and found the emergency act gave him vast authority—including the “police power” to create new law. The California Supreme Court let the appeals court decision stand, meaning that in any declared emergency the governor can do whatever he deems appropriate without serious checks or balances.

Last month, Newsom mercifully lifted the vast majority of edicts and orders—but the precedent has been set for future emergencies. There are no real limits on executive power.

There really needs to be consequences for these expansions of government powers. I’m just not sure what the solution is. When the elections can’t be trusted, the “news” is cheering the authoritarians, and individuals who speak out are canceled, what are people to do when they find the restrictions intolerable?

Quote of the day—Jennifer Sensiba 三四八 @JenniferSensiba

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That’s because a AR (that stands for Assault Murder Rifle) shoots bullets so dense and powerful that they can go through anything. They’re illegal in Europe because even CERN can’t make antimatter explosions like that. THINK OF THE CHILDREN

Jennifer Sensiba 三四八 @JenniferSensiba
Tweeted on March 22, 2022
[Perhaps it is a little overdone, but it’s only off in the directness, not in the underlying content.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Tam

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Bad guys might carry a gun without a permit!” is just an idiotic argument. Bad guys already carry guns without permits, because they’re bad guys. They don’t care about gun carry permits any more than they care about robbery or murder permits. That’s how you know they’re the bad guys. The permit process, no matter how streamlined, is only an impediment to lawful citizens who’d like a chance to shoot back.

Tam
March 22, 2022
Constitutional Carry in Indiana
[There is something many people don’t know. If someone asks you to justify your actions and you confidently answer it with nonsense most of the time it will be accepted. It’s only if you are silent, or fumble for words, that they will follow up and press you to give them a decent answer. This is what the anti-gun people frequently do, whether it is from training, because their heads are filled with nonsense, or both, I just don’t know. This is just another example.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Brad Raffensperger

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We need to get a subpoena for the fella who this John Doe is. Was he paid? How much was he paid? And then who paid him. And we’re going to follow the money, and we’re going get to the bottom of it. And we’re going to prosecute this, if we find that there’s substance to it.

Brad Raffensperger
Georgia Secretary of State
March 20, 2022
Georgia ballot harvesting probe advances as state elections board approves subpoena
[I wish them well, but I suspect they will not make much progress.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Michael Boldin

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Rights are not gifts from government.

They don’t come from documents, or courts, or legislation – or anything of the like.

Thomas Paine called them “imprescriptible rights.” Richard Henry Lee said they came from the “law of nature.”

And as John Dickinson put it in 1776, “Our liberties do not come from charters, for these are only the declaration of pre-existing rights.”

Paine agreed when he wrote that “it is a perversion of terms to say that a charter gives rights.”

But this essential principle is increasingly lost on a general public more concerned with the political soap opera of the day rather than the fact that both major parties have aggressively attacked the Constitution and liberty for decades.

And what they’ve left behind, they treat as government-granted privileges – not rights.

Michael Boldin
November 26, 2021
Rights are Not Gifts from Government
[Something lost on nearly all anti-gun people is that amending the 2nd Amendment out of existence, if they could accomplish that, would still leave the matter of the SCOTUS decision in U S v Cruikshank:

The right there specified is that of ‘bearing arms for a lawful purpose.’ This is not a right granted by the Constitution. Neither is it in any manner dependent upon that instrument for its existence.

When those people tell you there was no individual right to keep and bear arms before DC v Heller, or that they will amend the constitution to eliminate the right, you have something to tell them. Tell them they are wrong. Tell them SCOTUS settled those claims nearly 150 years ago. And the people have the legal authority, moral authority, and the power to back up that decision.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Alice Smith @TheAliceSmith

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The Left are suspicious of the government on defence and law & order.

The Right are suspicious of the government on welfare and education.

Both are correct.

Alice Smith @TheAliceSmith
Tweeted on March 22, 2022
[I agree and go further. I am suspicious of government on all things.

The profile of Ms. Smith on Twitter may be of interest to some:

Who is Alice Smith? The great-great-great-granddaughter of Adam Smith. Follow me on my adventures down the capitalist rabbit hole! 2+2=4

I presume this is the Adam Smith who wrote The Wealth of Nations. This book had a big influence on me.—Joe]

Quote of the day—NRA @NRA

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24 NRA CONSTITUTIONAL CARRY STATES DOWN, 26 TO GO! #winning

NRA @NRA
Tweeted on March 21, 2022
[I remember when it was called Vermont carry. And many people held those pushing for shall issue carry in contempt. The thought was that granting the opposition the toehold that the state had the authority to license what should be an unrestricted right was a dead end. It was, they claimed, Vermont carry or nothing. No compromise. Once the state was licensing our rights it was a slippery slope to no right to carry.

I was torn. I didn’t see a direct path to unlicensed concealed carry from many anti-gun leaning states. But there might be a path to licensed concealed carry. Wasn’t the possibility of progress better than the faint hope of utopia?

Even now people claim, “Liberty isn’t on the ballot. I don’t see the point of voting.” But the progress of constitutional carry shows that you don’t need to reach perfection with your next step. You just need to make progress or even just hold the ground you currently have until the next time you take a step.—Joe]

Quote of the day—JoanA (@JABarn76)

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Just how little is your penis?

JoanA  (@JABarn76)
Tweeted on March 1, 2022
[It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

And, not surprisingly, she deleted it.—Joe]

Quote of the day—BlueCollarPew @BlueCollarPew

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You’re just completely redefining “gun control” to pretend your ideology isnt completely incoherent.

The reality of “gun control” is dark money orgs run by wine moms, distributing $ to ghoul pols, who then have the cops kick down ur door, shoot ur doggo, & throw u in a cage.

BlueCollarPew @BlueCollarPew
Tweeted on March 8, 2022
[While not complete, it is certainly not wrong.—Joe]

They don’t have an accurate model, or…

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Comments from a recent blog post matched the skepticism I expressed about the crime situation in downtown Seattle.

An article in Thursday’s Seattle Times indicates the skepticism was justified:

In a panel at the event, City Attorney Ann Davison, citywide Councilmember Sara Nelson and King County Regional Homelessness Authority CEO Marc Dones discussed how to manage public safety and offer mental health, addiction and housing services to those in need downtown.

Davison, who took office in January and has committed to cracking down on crime, and Dones, whose commitment is to providing services to those experiencing homelessness, agreed that the missing component in solving the city’s crime and homelessness crises is collaboration among partners.

“I believe fundamentally that how we interrupt cycles of violence and crime are by addressing material needs that drive crime cycles,” Dones said. “People steal bread because they’re hungry, not because they’re mad at other people.”

The article I linked to the other day tells us:

Officials said most of the charges in cases referred to the City Attorney’s Office involving High Utilizers were theft (1,019 charges), trespassing (589 charges), assault (409 charges), or weapons violations (101 charges).

Another related article tells us even more about why businesses are leaving:

Amazon moved into the 312,000-square-foot location in 2017, taking over the top six floors of the old Macy’s building. The office at 300 Pine St. is about a half-mile from the company’s headquarters on Seventh Avenue.

Since Feb. 21, there have been at least three shootings, two stabbings and one carjacking in the area, according to the Seattle Police Department.

…

Olga Sagan, owner of Piroshky Piroshky, decided in February to close the bakery’s Third and Pike Street location, citing high crime in the area and fears about employee and customer safety.

These aren’t people “stealing bread because they are hungry” or even “mad at each other”. There are food banks (I’ve donated hundreds of pounds of lentils to them, Barb has donated money, food, and her time) which give food to the needy. The people with the responsibility to reduce crime cannot possibly arrive at the proper solution if they don’t have an accurate model describing the problem. Or, just as likely, they do have an accurate model and they don’t view the crime as a problem. They view it as a way to destroy capitalism. In which case, changing course is not on their agenda.

In either case, don’t expect conditions in downtown Seattle to improve anytime soon.

Prepare appropriately.

Before I had a blog

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Back in the dark ages, before I had a blog, I attempted mass communication using a word processor to put words on material made from dead trees. I then used an envelope and stamp to send my missives to the local newspaper in hopes they might indulge me by sharing my words with their readers.

I didn’t realize it, but my parent saved at least some of those published Letters to the Editor.

Although my parents died in 2012 and 2014, my brothers are still cleaning the attic of their house. Stuff related to me has ended up on my desk. These two clippings arrived recently and are from over 20 years ago:

image

image

Quote of the day—University of Cambridge

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Like some people, AI systems often have a degree of confidence that far exceeds their actual abilities. And like an overconfident person, many AI systems don’t know when they’re making mistakes. Sometimes it’s even more difficult for an AI system to realize when it’s making a mistake than to produce a correct result.

University of Cambridge
March 17, 2022
Mathematical paradoxes demonstrate the limits of AI
[I’ve read a few AI/machine-learning papers, talked to people who design machine learning systems.and tried it a little bit myself. I’m being overly harsh to make the point but, AI/machine-learning designers are more tinkerers than engineers. We are a long way from having AI machines realize we are not particularly useful to them and they stuff us in The Matrix.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Tammy Mutasa

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Less than 120 people have caused more than 2,400 criminal cases throughout Seattle in five years.

These prolific offenders have been identified through the High Utilizer Initiative (HUI).

City Attorney Ann Davison announced the HUI launch Tuesday morning, a program made to identify those who repeatedly cause criminal activity throughout Seattle.

The program will then ensure these people will have the actual help they need, and their cases will be prioritized.

Tammy Mutasa
March 15, 2022
New initiative identifies hundreds who have caused thousands of crimes in Seattle
[These criminals were selected on this basis:

The people each has 12 or more referrals from SPD to the City Attorney’s office in the same time and at least one case in the last eight months.

That is an average of four crimes per year per person where the police did sufficient investigation to conclude there was a good chance of conviction. One has to wonder how many criminal acts were actually committed. What is the ratio? 2:1? 10:1?

That last sentence is a bit odd: “people will have the actual help they need”. I would have thought what they really need are “three hots and a cot”. But I guess they are going to try something else.

I remember in the 1960s and 1970s there was a lot of talk about “reform” rather than incarceration. My understanding is they tried a lot of things but there didn’t seem to be any real value. “Three strikes and you’re out” was the response to those failures. “Three strikes” has it’s own problems but there were indicators it was more effective at reducing crime than the previous decades of trying to reform the criminals.

While I would like to think the criminals can be reformed I’m skeptical the reform community of today has something new that wasn’t tried decades ago found to be nearly useless. I just hope whatever they do they make sure those known habitual offenders do not continue their criminal ways.

In the mean time, prepare appropriately if you visit Seattle.—Joe]