Category Archives: Current News

This is about stuff in the mass media that generally has a short interest life span. Speculation about an election outcome a few days before the election is an example.

It’s not an open loop system

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In control systems and electronic amplifiers engineers design things to be self correcting. Think of the simple control system for the heating system in your home. You set the thermostat to a particular temperature and it will turn the heat on it if gets too cool and off when it reaches the desired temperature. This is a closed loop system. There is a sensor which provides information about the current status of the system and this information is used to control the heat source and keep the temperature within acceptable limits. The system has a feedback loop from the output (the room temperature) back to the input (the heat supply).

Without such a feedback loop it would be very difficult to maintain a system at a stable temperature. When the outside temperature changed the inside temperature would change too. If someone left a window open the interior temperature would change.

I have often thought our planet must have one or more feedback loops to maintain it’s temperature at something very close to the same (averaged the entire surface over the entire year) temperature. I knew one feedback loop, which the climate change people seldom, if ever, mention, was that plants are CO2 starved. At our current concentration of about 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere it’s not easy for the plants to absorb and then pull the carbon apart from the oxygen to build plant matter. In fact, at current atmospheric pressures, photosynthesis shuts down at between 150 ppm and 200 ppm. As atmospheric CO2 increases plants grow faster. Faster growing plants mean more energy is absorbed from the sun, reducing atmospheric heating, and more CO2 is absorbed from the air. Hence the green house effect, atmospheric warming, from increased CO2 is counteracted, at least in part, by the feedback mechanism of increased plant growth.

There are other feedback systems as well. One of which only very recently was discovered:

According to a study by the Institute of Catalysis and Environment in Lyon (IRCELYON, CNRS / University Lyon 1) and the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), the oceans are producing unexpectedly large quantities of isoprene – a volatile organic compound (VOC) – which is known to have a cooling effect on climate.

Our planet temperature is not an open loop system. If it were then the global warming/cooling climate change people would be right to be concerned. But it is, almost, obviously not. Closed loop systems are much more difficult to upset and are much more stable. We have a closed loop system with many feedback loops. These loops make the system extremely difficult to model but don’t tell me climate is changing until you can explain to me how the inputs to the system have the potential to break the feedback loops which stabilize the temperature.

Quote of the day—Robert J. Avrech

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There is no such thing as gun violence.

The left uses the absurd phrase “gun violence” in order to rid our culture of human agency — in other words, of morality. The left denies the notion of good and evil just as it denies IslamoNazi terror, a malignant ideology that is spreading like cancer across the globe.

When two IslamoNazis unleashed terror in San Bernardino, President Obama and the Praetorian media defaulted to their anti-gun obsession, a blizzard of Tourette’s-style rhetoric with no connection to reality. The Democrat party’s solution to the scourge of IslamoNazi terror is to disarm honest citizens. In the fantasyland Democrats inhabit, all they have to do is pass laws and the monsters who terrorize us — IslamoNazis and drug-dealing gangbangers — will vanish.

The real world does not conform to such delusions…

Robert J. Avrech
December 22, 2015
Jew With Gun
[I have nothing to add.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Ryan Holiday

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Scientists replicate each other’s experiments in order to prove or disprove their findings. Conversely, journalists replicate one another conclusions and build on top of them—often when they are not correct. The news has always filled with errors, because it is self-referential instead of self-critical. Mistakes don’t occur as isolated incidents but ripple through the news, sometimes with painful consequences.

Ryan Holiday
2013
Trust Me, I’m Lying: Confessions of a Media Manipulator
Quoting, in part, Kathryn Schulz in Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error
[I found this particularly insightful.—Joe]

Isn’t that interesting

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From the AP:

One of the guns linked to Islamic militants in the Paris attacks that killed 130 people was exported to the United States in 2013, the head of a Serbian arms factory said Thursday.

Milojko Brzakovic of the Zastava arms factory told The Associated Press that the M92 semi-automatic pistol’s serial number matched one his company delivered to an American online arms dealer in May 2013. It was not clear how the gun got back to Europe.

I find this very interesting. Doesn’t this demonstrate the gun, almost for certain, was smuggled from the U.S. to France? That would seem to be a much bigger challenge than smuggling, say, cigarettes from South Carolina to New York City. Or guns from Virginia to New York City. If France can’t keep guns from being smuggled in from the U.S. then why should the gun grabbers believe guns can’t be smuggled into the U.S. from Mexico, or even Eastern Europe?

If there is a market for an existing product there will be a supplier.

When will they come for the guns?

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Via email Mac asks:

Joe,

If those on the no fly list are to be prohibited from buying guns, what about those they already own?  When will the government come for them?

Good question.

I don’t know the answer. I suspect that is a constitutional infringement the government doesn’t want to cross right now.

Something of a side note is that while researching this I learned there are two lists which I had merged into one in my mind. One is the the “No Fly List”. The other is “Terrorist Watch List.”

From the WSJ:

The National Counterterrorism Center runs a central repository of more than 1 million people called Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment, or TIDE. The TIDE database, which includes about 25,000 Americans as of 2013…

An unclassified subset of the TIDE database is made available to law enforcement as part of the Terrorist Screening Database. That database contains biographical and biometric information about potential terrorists and can be accessed by local, state and federal law enforcement officials who don’t have security clearances. As of 2011, that database was said to contain about 420,000 names, according to the FBI.

The Transportation Security Administration receives an even smaller list of people subject to travel restrictions drawn from the Terrorist Screening Database. In addition to the 16,000 names on the no-fly list in 2011, another 16,000 were on the selectee list. The selectee list doesn’t prevent individuals from flying but subjects them to extra scrutiny.

About 25,000 Americans on the terrorist watch list. According to the US Census Bureau in 2012 there were about 220 million people in the U.S. 21 and over. This means they suspect about one out of 9,000 people of being terrorists. And about one out of every 7,000 people on the lists associated with commercial flight. That isn’t as big a list as what some people have been saying.

The practical problem I see with the government attempting to “come for the guns” which the people on the lists already have is that how do they know which of the people on the list possess guns? If they don’t know which people actually have guns they would have to search their homes and any other place those people might have stored the gun(s). They can’t get a search warrant unless they have probable cause of a crime being committed, a description what it is they are looking for, and where they believe to find the object. “Guns in the home or car or storage unit because they are on this list” probably is going to have the judge frowning at you rather than signing it.

But the issue of blocking sales to people on this list is a different issue because it doesn’t involve the 4th Amendment. The 2nd Amendment is considered by many people to be a second class (if it is recognized at all) right. The 4th Amendment has a process in place which attempts to protect people from having this right infringed.

A comparable process to that proposed to the purchase of a gun being subject to a background check which involves one or more secret government lists would be to subject sales of religious and political books to the same background checks. Of course most people would claim it’s not the same thing at all. My response is, “You are absolutely correct. Ideas are far more dangerous than guns. Haven’t you hear of all the people murdered by those inspired by The Communist Manifesto, Mein Kampf, as well as the The Holy Qur’an and The Holy Bible?”

But to answer Mac’s question I think it will be quite a while before they start collecting those guns already in the hands of people on the lists. But I think it is a great question to ask of those advocating for restricting sales to such people. If they don’t bring up the 4th Amendment issues themselves then you bring them up. And then follow up with the 1st Amendment issues if such a background check were required for reading materials or church attendance.

Psychology of some mass shooters

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I found this very interesting:

An evolutionary psychology explanation for mass shootings

Psychologists Joseph Vandello and Jennifer Bosson have coined the term “precarious manhood” to describe a dilemma that only men seem to face.

In a nutshell, they argue that “manhood” – however an individual male’s culture might define it – is a status that must be continually earned. And one’s self-worth is tied to being perceived as a “real man.”

It’s precarious because it can be easily lost – especially if the man fails to measure up to the relentless challenges that life throws at him, be they tests of physical bravery, or competition with other men for respect and status.

…

Nicolas Henin was a Frenchman who was held hostage by ISIS for ten months. Here’s how he described his young, murderous, Jihadi captors:

They present themselves to the public as superheroes, but away from the camera are a bit pathetic in many ways: street kids drunk on ideology and power. In France we have a saying – stupid and evil. I found them more stupid than evil. That is not to understate the murderous potential of stupidity.

Apparently, a lack of attention from others results in a lack of status, resulting in a lack of access to women. Combined with a young man’s testosterone, it creates a toxic, combustible mix.

Islamic law allows for men to have multiple wives. This contributes to a lack of female access for lower status males and (if you believe this study) a greater inclination for violence.

Of course this doesn’t explain the San Bernardino shooters. But it may explain others and provide another indicator for predicting future violence.

Good plans and crazy psychology

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From MSNBC:

Nobody is talking about gun control in San Bernardino. Here’s why

As a financial aid administrator at a local community college, Melissa Contreras has gone through a number of active-shooter trainings at work. But this shooting hit a little too close to home for her. One of Contereras’ neighbors across the street, a mother to a 22-month toddler, was gunned down in Wednesday’s shooting.

“I have never in all 39 years in my life thought to pick up a gun,” Contreras said. “But now, I want to sign up for a class to learn and train to use one.”

And from the New York Times:

In Wake of Shootings, a Familiar Call to Arms Drives Latest Jump in Weapon Sales

“What if someone comes after me or my family?” said Janet Winkler, a grandmother who was shopping for bullets to fill the revolver inside her purse. “I used to never carry it to Target or to Wal-Mart, but the way things are, after all that’s happened, now I do.”

In the wake of mass shootings in Paris, Colorado Springs and San Bernardino, Calif., Americans are once again arming themselves — stocking up on guns and ammunition, bringing weapons into their daily routines and requesting refresher courses from firing ranges.

Thinking of both self-protection and the threat of new gun laws that could follow the San Bernardino shooting that left 14 people dead on Wednesday, much of the country is rushing toward guns rather than away: Gun shops from Texas to Maine have all recently reported increased gun sales, and in some cases, sheriffs have even urged residents to arm themselves.

It is all part of a weapons boom that has been building for weeks. More Americans had their backgrounds checked while buying guns on Black Friday than on any other day on record, according to F.B.I. statistics, which showed a 5 percent increase over Black Friday last year. In all, 185,345 people had their backgrounds checked on Black Friday alone.

Good people implementing good plans. It should help. There will still be losses on our side but it should reduce the kill ratios.

But what amazes me is the how the anti-gun people conform to the psychology described in the book When Prophecy Fails:

These five conditions specify the circumstances under which increased proselyting would be expected to follow disconfirmation.

The conditions are met and these people follow the psychology.

The majority of the people recognize gun control is a stupid response to the attacks and the anti-gun people respond with increased proselyting. And yet, with all these people believing buying guns, getting trained, and carrying them wherever they can is an appropriate response to terrorist attacks The New York Times thinks it is plausible, appropriate, and politically possible to ban gun ownership of the most popular rifle in America?

As I said yesterday:

The anti-gun people are on a downward slope to oblivion and the NYT editorial is the shrieking as they approach the abyss.

They literally do not know how to think rationally. They have crap for brains. They cannot determine truth and falsity.

Sympathy in this case is difficult

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The French have been working hard for years to show the Muslims that they mean them no harm. THAT, we are told, is how you get along in peace with people of other cultures, and if other people hate you then there must be a good reason; you need to look at yourself and see what you can do to make them stop hating you.

The French have also adopted the idea of massive violations of the right of honest citizens to keep and bear arms. Criminals will have whatever they want, but the honest must be disarmed.

Predictably then, we get this quote after last night’s coordinated jihad attacks in and around Paris. This was from someone at a rock concert;

“We lied down on the floor not to get hurt. It was a huge panic. The terrorists shot at us for 10 to 15 minutes. It was a bloodbath.” (That’s from CNN if you want to look. I’m not linking to them)

If all you can do is lie down and hope, while people around you are being shot, for 10 to 15 minutes, then your tactics suck. Dozens of people died on that scene, like the helpless sheep they worked so hard to become.

They’ve brought this upon themselves, I’m very sorry to say, and it’s difficult to have much sympathy for them. We’ve tried for years to warn them.

The left in the U.S. sees all this and says to themselves; “We totally need more multiculturalism and more gun control.” That attitude, that insanity, is the enemy as much as any jihadist, for it is that attitude that has emboldened the jihadists. They must be laughing their asses off at our stupidity.

Quote of the day—NYT Editorial Board

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Certain kinds of weapons, like the slightly modified combat rifles used in California, and certain kinds of ammunition, must be outlawed for civilian ownership. It is possible to define those guns in a clear and effective way and, yes, it would require Americans who own those kinds of weapons to give them up for the good of their fellow citizens.

NYT Editorial Board
December 4, 2015
End the Gun Epidemic in America
[Peter O suggests:

The NYT just published a front-page editorial (The first since 1920!) Advocating for the banning and confiscating of firearms.

You might just be able to drop the topic finally. 😉

The topic being “Don’t let anyone tell you they want to take your guns.” But that assumes there are enough people reading the New York Times for the word to get around.

My take on this editorial is this will further reduce their readership. More and more people realize that with the war with our current enemy for people to advocate gun control is an incredibly stupid idea. Even Chris Christie, who governs a state with incredible strict gun laws, called this editorial, “typical liberal claptrap from the New York Times”.

Yesterday Barb and I were at the range with a relatively new shooter and her husband. The check-in counter and gun store was packed with people. I supposedly had the training bay reserved for them but it was packed with a class. The range gave us a smaller bay and we got her shooting much better and far more comfortable with a gun. She is going to get a CPL.

My point is that rational people realize the answer to violent criminals is to respond with immediate protective violence and the best tool for that is a gun. People advocating removing the tools for delivering that immediate protective violence are being ignored and even anti-gun groups and President Obama recognize this:

President Barack Obama made a promise in October to use his bully pulpit to politicize gun control. But he hasn’t followed through — he hasn’t scheduled a single speech on the topic, instead simply reacting to shooting after mass shooting. And he’s stopped pushing for any real legislation with members of Congress.

Obama frequently repeats his promise to do something. But aides say he’s essentially given up on any significant gun control passing during his presidency.

…leaders of the groups grumble. They still get invited to intermittent brainstorming sessions at the White House where they hear talk about securing a legacy with some more moves, and then they wait as nothing real happens.

In a stopped clock is right twice a day type moment Brady Campaign Against Gun Violence President Dan Gross is right when he says:

We have seen over this past week how quickly an important social conversation can really change how we look at an issue.

The conversations I had at work, with friends wanting guns and training, and the packed gun ranges and stores over this past week we do see that, speaking literally, Gross is right. But not in the way he would like to believe. The anti-gun people are on a downward slope to oblivion and the NYT editorial is the shrieking as they approach the abyss.—Joe]

First rocket VTOL?

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This is pretty cool. Via Drudge. With video.

A rocket with landing gear. We saw that in books and SciFi movies all our lives. Never thought it would take this long, but apparently it’s difficult.

Better book yourself a flight. You get four minutes of free-fall, and the best “roller coaster” ride yet. Once they can go orbital it’ll cost more for a ticket I bet.

Bad guys and worse guys, bad news and good news

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To laugh or cry. Hard call. A recent terrorist shooting Paris has some unlikely, er, heros? (it’s transplated, and a little hard to tell if it was the big ISIS shooting or another one at a nearby or related restaurant) It is being reported that when the terrorists entered and started shooting, there were people in the restaurant that rose and returned fire, killing “the two attackers.” So score two for the good guys? Well, ordinary civilians can’t easily carry for self-defense, there. Turns out the concealed-carry guys were Columbia narco-cartel traffickers.

Huh.

Oh, well. Red-on-red fire still counts as a win, yes?

Quote of the day—Robert J. Avrech

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The beasts of Islam have declared war against all of Western civilization. And there is no appeasing them. The more you give the more they demand.

And unless the EU stands with Israel against the beasts of Islam, the EU will drown in its own blood.

Robert J. Avrech
November 15, 2015
Paris and The Beasts of Islam
[I have nothing to add.—Joe]

You only have to extrapolate a little

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King County contains Seattle and many of the surrounding cities. So this is in deep blue territory. And yet King Co. Sheriff asks off-duty officers to carry guns, extra mags after Paris attacks:

King County Sheriff John Urquhart has instructed off-duty deputies to carry their sidearm with extra magazines, following the deadly Paris attacks.

The violence in Paris prompted the sheriff to request, via a letter to his deputies, that off-duty officers be armed with their service weapons and extra magazines of ammo should a terrorist attack hit the Puget Sound region.

…

The King County Sheriff’s Office has 700 commissioned officers, according to Urquhart. While off-duty deputies were once required to carry their service weapon wherever they went, that is not the case currently.

You only have to extrapolate a little bit to come to the conclusion that the thousands of private citizens with concealed carry permits in the county would dramatically improve the odds of a Paris like attack running into armed resistance in the first few seconds instead of having free rein for several minutes.

Quote of the day—Vladimir Putin

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We should not apply any time limits. We should know them all by name. We will search for them everywhere, where ever they are hiding. We will find them in any spot on the planet and punish them.

Vladimir Putin
November 17, 2015
Putin vows payback after confirmation of Egypt plane bomb
[His definition of “punish” will have significant differences from that of our current president. It may well involve removing their entire family line from the gene pool.

The French and the Russians are probably in good agreement on the task at hand. France is asking “European allies” to join them. I expect Israel probably is interesting in cooperating as well. If ISIS follows through on their threat, The American Blood Is Best, and We Will Taste It Soon, then there may be sufficient motivation for our country to “achieve consensus” and put aside our differences with other nations and ally with them to achieve a more “lasting peace” with Islam.

We have the technology to do a much “better” job than we did in the past few hundred years we have been at war with them. If the political will to use it comes about things things will get very ugly.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Larry Correia

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Militant Islamist Wahhibi douchebags want to kill you. Period. Don’t make excuses for them. Don’t try to explain them away. They literally want you to submit or die. This isn’t rocket science. Just ask them. They’ll tell you.

Larry Correia
November 16, 2015
Thoughts on Paris
[This is probably one of the most important points you must understand in this war. This isn’t something you can negotiate with them about. It’s not about some piece of desert which contains oil, forcing capitalism on them, poverty, or some misunderstanding that some “smart diplomacy” can fix. You cannot bargain with them anymore than you can bargain with a psychopath who wants to torture and kill you for his pleasure of watching you suffer and die.

You might get concessions from them that slow their attack some. But their long term goals and nature have not changed since the origin of Islam hundreds of years ago. Our country has fought since Jefferson was president. Reading about their mindset and their attitudes at that time is eerily similar to what I read about them now. I am firmly convinced the only long term options we have are:

  1. A low grade war or series of wars that never ends.
  2. We are conquered by them.
  3. We fight to win and completely destroy the religion as it is currently interpreted by those who demand world domination.

The only questions are which option do we chose and if we chose to fight and win how do we do that. I read one post on Facebook by someone I greatly admire which said, in part,

It’s not going away from magical thoughts.

“You can’t kill your way out of this war/to victory”

Really? I guess you’ve never heard of Nagasaki and Hiroshima. We killed the fucking shit out of them and they cried uncle and never raised a fist against us again.

In fact, no war has even been won in the history of mankind that was won any way but killing so many of the enemy that HE admitted he was beaten.

It’s not a good option. There are no good options. This is only the best option.

The Islamic people attacking the west have explicitly said:

The first thing that we are calling you to is Islam.

…

We call you to be a people of manners, principles, honour, and purity; to reject the immoral acts of fornication, homosexuality, intoxicants, gambling’s, and trading with interest.

…

You are the nation who, rather than ruling by the Shariah of Allah in its Constitution and Laws, choose to invent your own laws as you will and desire. You separate religion from your policies, contradicting the pure nature which affirms Absolute Authority to the Lord and your Creator.

…

If you fail to respond to all these conditions, then prepare for fight with the Islamic Nation. The Nation of Monotheism, that puts complete trust on Allah and fears none other than Him.

Their religious belief is that non-believers must convert, submit, or die. We must chose the option which they do not offer. That option is that we fight and completely neutralize those who insist the world be Islamic.—Joe]

Bullets and bombers

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Sebastian sent me an email this morning and suggested:

Apparently the Paris bombers had vests made of TATP explosive material. I was wondering if it might make a good post on the nature of the explosive, and particularly its sensitivity to bullets.

Good idea. I have written a little bit about TATP before but not in this context.

Sebastian also wrote on the general topic today. I would like to add that steel matches are excellent practice for making multiple head shots. In the right circumstances five head shots can be made in two seconds flat.

If you are in a shooting situation where your target is in close proximity to TATP explosives you should either make certain you don’t hit the containers or you are prepared to accept the consequences of a detonation. TATP is extremely impact sensitive:


Acetone peroxide impact sensitivity by JudyMaceo

GlobalSecurity.org says, “TATP is one of the most sensitive explosives known, being extremely sensitive to impact, temperature change and friction.” I have zero doubt about a TATP bomb detonating from a bullet impact.

In the case of a suicide bomber give serious consideration to a head shot. This is not just because of the reason above but because if you don’t shut them down in a fraction of a second they are likely to manually detonate it after they take a solid hit to anything but the central nervous system. Even then, a deadman switch could cause detonation as soon as they let go.

The range of the explosion is of course dependent upon the amount of explosives and the type of fragmentation jacket (which creates the shrapnel) used, and the objects between the bomber and innocent people. I can’t vouch for the accuracy of this but it is better than no information at all:

A common security drill against suspected suicide bombers is to isolate the suspect to at least 15 metres (49 ft) away from other people, and ask him to remove his upper clothing (coat, shirt, etc.) in order to see if there is an explosive vest strapped under them.

Personally I would want at least this much range between them and me and I would take cover as low to the ground as I could. You will also have a fraction of a second between the time you pull the trigger and the time shrapnel arrives at your location. Use that time wisely.

Quote of the day—Brett

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This won’t end well.

Brett
November 13, 2015
In regard to the ISIS attack on the people of Paris.
[Brett is an extremely smart guy I work with. His knowledge of physics, computers, geology, anthropology, statistics, history, politics, economics, banking, and just about everything is astounding.

At first I thought maybe he was one of those people who just pretends to know everything. But when off the top of his head he tells you the hour an earthquake occurred over three hundred years ago (21:00 on January 26, 1700) and you go looking and find out he was right you start to get a clue. I’ve looked up numerous numbers and things that I found incredible to believe or believe he could remember such details and found he was right. A few times he would report back to me with a correction on something before I got around to look it up.

One time he said a co-worker may be leaving the company soon. I asked why, because I was pretty sure I had all the same information he did in regards to this other person. He told me his son called him “the correlater”. “And?”, I asked. “It’s what I do. And that is what my son calls me sometimes”, he replied. “But why do you say this about our co-worker?”, I insisted. Before he could answer the co-worker appeared, we went silent, they walked up to us, and said, “I’m giving them on month. Then I’m out of here.” Brett looked at me with wide eyes and said, “See?” then expressed his sympathy for our co-worker’s situation.

Friday, as the news of the Paris attacks Brett became very sad and concerned. And repeatedly said, “This won’t end well.” Anyone could have said it and one would find it plausible if not exceedingly likely. When Brett says it then it takes it to a whole new level.—Joe]

ATF Data

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The ATF tweeted about their Open Data website the other day and I started poking around this evening. There is some interesting stuff there. It includes developer APIs for accessing their data, number of people in various positions, budgets, the number of explosives manufactures in each state, the heat produced by burning a Christmas tree, and tons of other stuff.

SAFE act

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The 2nd Circuit Court upheld the NY “SAFE Act 2013” last week. Bummer. They said that NY could ban certain arms, prohibit private transfers, etc. On the one hand, that really sucks for the people of NY, another in a long line of suckage. Oh, well, I don’t live there, and I’m never planning too. And it sets a circuit court precedent that specific guns can be banned. On the other hand, it was passed so fast, and is so broad, it’s likely to get appealed to the Supreme Court, and it’s also likely to get taken up.

High risk appeal. If we win, it’s big. If we lose, it’s HUGE.

Interesting times.

Hearing protection act

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Unlikely to pass, but a good idea none the less. The bill would remove the $200 tax stamp on suppressors and make them a normal 4473 item handled by FFLs the way a firearm would be as far as the FedGov is concerned.

Yes, I know they shouldn’t be regulated at all beyond a basic buyer-beware consumer-safety sort of “do they work as advertised” thing, but it would be another step in the right direction. It would also help the economy by increasing demand for something domestically-made.