A Thin Veneer of Civilization

Quote of the Day

Unlike so many people around the world, those of us that live in the United States were fortunate enough to grow up in a relatively civilized society.  Unfortunately, we have turned our backs on the values that our forefathers handed down to us, and so now we are starting to find out what is beneath the thin veneer of civilization that we have all been taking for granted all these years.  Our society is absolutely teeming with predators, crime rates are soaring all over the nation, millions of Americans are afraid to leave their own homes, and hordes of drug addicts are literally pooping in the middle of our streets whenever they feel like it.

Michael Snyder
December 4, 2023
We Are Starting To Find Out What Is Beneath The Thin Veneer Of Civilization That We Have All Been Taking For Granted (theeconomiccollapseblog.com)

It is not just a thin veneer of civilization, admittedly they are not orthogonal, but it is also a thin veneer of rationality as well.

Prepare appropriately.

I want an underground bunker in Idaho.

Gold Price Forecasting

This is the price of gold forecast from J.P. Morgan on January 17, 2024:

Infographic depicting gold price forecasts for each quarter of 2024 and 2025.

It has not been below $2000 mid December and the asking price today was briefly over $2100. Via Gold Price Today | Gold Spot Price Charts | APMEX®:

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I’m reminded of Dad and Brother Doug talking to grain buyers about selling crops from the farm. The buyers would explain, in great detail and confidence, why the price would go up/down and encourage the farmers to hold/sell accordingly. Almost without exception you could count on their advice being exactly backward to the best interests of the farmer.

Statewide Rent Control Being Considered in Washington

Five things to know about WA proposal to limit rent hikes | The Seattle Times

Isn’t rent control one of the most studied economic experiments? And hasn’t it been shown to be, over the long term, a disaster for everyone involved?

This is the deliberate destruction of Washington state.

I want my underground bunker in Idaho.

If it Has Never Happened, Will it Ever Happen?

Quote of the Day

There is currently much debate about the health of financial markets. Can prices remain detached from the fundamentals long enough for the economic/earnings recession to catch up with prices?

Maybe. It has just never happened.

Lance Roberts
January 30, 2024
“Theory Of Reflexivity” And Does It Matter? – RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

Prepare appropriately.

Ending the Federal Reserve from the Bottom Up

Quote of the Day

Since its inception, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have led to a decline of over 95% in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. As a result, there have been several attempts to curtail or eliminate the Federal Reserve’s powers (e.g., the efforts of Rep. Louis T. McFadden in the 1930s; the efforts of Rep. Wright Patman in the 1970s; the efforts of Rep. Henry Gonzalez in the 1990s; and the efforts of Rep. Ron Paul since the 1990s).

However, none have proven successful to date, due mainly to the constraints of strong political opposition at the national level. In contrast to these “top-down” attempts at the national level, this paper proposes an alternative approach to ending the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money: the “Constitutional Tender Act,” a bill template that can be introduced in every state legislature in the nation, returning each of them to adherence to the U.S. Constitution’s “legal tender” provisions of Article I, Section 10.

This approach would have a greater likelihood of success for a number of reasons. First, it is decentralized: rather than facing concerted political opposition at a single Federal level, it attacks the issue at the State level, where strategies and tactics can be adapted to the types and amount of political opposition they encounter.

Second, it is diffused: it can be attempted in any number of States, which can cause the opposition to spread its resources much more thinly than would be necessary at the Federal level. Finally, it is legally sound: it relies on the U.S. Constitution’s negative mandate in Article I, Section 10, that “No State shall… make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.” Therefore, in contrast to “top-down” attempts to “end the Fed,” a “bottom-up” approach using “constitutional tender” laws will find greater success.

Under this Act, the State would be required to only use gold and silver coins (or their equivalents, such as checks or electronic transfers) for payments of any debt owed by or to the State (e.g., taxes, fees, contract payments, etc.). All contracts, tax bills, etc. would be required to be denominated in legal tender gold and silver U.S. coins, including Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, and pre-1965 90% silver coins. All State-chartered banks, as well as any other bank that is a depository for State funds, would be required to offer accounts denominated in those types of gold and silver coins, and to keep such accounts segregated from other types of accounts such as Federal Reserve Notes.

Bill Green
April 4, 2017
Ending the Federal Reserve from the Bottom Up

It is an interesting thought.experiment. But will it work? It’s been almost seven years now and how much progress has it made?

Perhaps after the big crash people will give it more serious consideration.

Gold is currently tickling the $2,100/oz price as I type this… Prepare appropriately.

Gold and Silver

Interesting:

Gold Forecast – Prices Could Soon Signal a Historic Breakout (fxempire.com)

Gold is very close to a historic breakout and sub-$2000 prices will be a distant memory. Gold miners are undervalued and could be the best performing asset in 2024

But, as always, be highly suspect of the claims made by someone who has something to gain from convincing you to part with your money.

In their favor the predictions on October 20, 2023 seem to be close:

GOLD DAILY: The final washout I warned investors about ended quickly, and prices are back above the downtrend line. Gold could consolidate around $2000 for a few days, but a breakout above $2090 is becoming increasingly likely before year-end.

SILVER DAILY: The final washout in precious metals triggered a false breakdown in silver below the 1-year trendline. Prices have recovered, and we expect a bullish breakout above $26.00 before year-end.

The End of Times

Quote of the Day

The biggest elephant in the room is the US Fiscal Doom Loop. To refresh: US Government spending is out of control, and there appears to be very little political will to stop it. As the chart below shows, Government spending is up 14% yoy and tax receipts are down 7% yoy.  Fiscal year ended September 2023 is projected to have a deficit of over $2 Billion (or roughly 8% of GDP). In the past, deficits of this magnitude only materialized during significant downturns like the bursting of the Dotcom Bubble, the 2008 GFC and the COVID crisis. It is unprecedented to have deficits of this magnitude with the economy and employment being relatively strong.

Lawrence Lepard
October 2023
This “Unprecedented” Fiscal Doom Loop Is Getting Worse

A volcano in Iceland is expected to erupt in hours or days and destroy a town of 4,000 people, Japan has a new island, a super volcano is flexing, U.S. military bases are being attacked almost daily, and the U.S. debt is over 33 trillion and rapidly increasing.

We live in interesting times. Some might even claim it is the end of times. Prepare appropriately.

I want my underground bunker in Idaho.

Gas Tax Loophole

You may have heard Washington state has the highest gas prices in the nation. A huge contribution to this is the state gas tax.

As I frequently drive to and from Idaho this is rather painful. However, I have found a loophole. The difference in the price of gasoline in Idaho versus the Seattle area is so great than I can buy ethanol free gasoline in Idaho for approximately the same price as I can purchase the 10% ethanol blended unleaded in Bellevue.

Ethanol free gasoline gives my car a noticeable boost in gas mileage. On my last return trip from Idaho I was able to demonstrate that I can fill up in Moscow, just over the border from Washington, and, driving at or under the speed limit, I make it back to Bellevue on a half tank of fuel.

That means that if I bring back a five or six gallon can of ethanol free gas I can drive around town a little and still make it all the way back to Idaho without giving the commie Washington state government a single penny of gasoline tax.

Oh, and I can buy all the standard capacity magazines and guns I want in Idaho while I’m there too. All 100% legal*.


*I am legally required to leave any such newly purchased items in Idaho until the courts overturn the illegal gun laws in Washington. But that is what the armory in my underground bunker is for.

More Babies or Something

Quote of the Day

People who see the declining population as a good thing tend to ignore the difficulties it will create. Let’s begin with the fiscal havoc. The federal government continues to spend more than it taxes, causing its debt to spiral upward. A low birth rate means more retirees and fewer workers to support them — more people entitled to Social Security and Medicare, but fewer taxpayers — worsening the debt. Even if we were to rein in the debt, a shrinking, aging population means more non-working people wanting to buy things with their savings, but fewer people to produce them, causing rampant inflation. As Stanford economist Charles Jones puts it, declining population has profound implications: “Rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate.”

Robert Whaples
June 18, 2023
We Need More Babies

There are solutions other than more babies.

Robotics and AI will increase productivity. Anti-aging therapies will reduce the number of retirees and increase the number of projected workers.

But just because there are multiple potential solutions doesn’t mean the realization of any of the solutions will be successful.

Prepare appropriately.

Socialism is Barely on the Seattle City Council Ballot

A glimmer of hope for Seattle?

Bland is back? In Seattle the fiery far left is barely on the ballot

It appears the revolution has petered out.

Or maybe it’s just on pause. But Seattle’s great civic experiment of the past decade, dabbing in socialism and far-left progressive experiments in public policy, is all but a no-show in the current City Council campaigns.

It wasn’t long ago that candidates for public office here would routinely declare things like, “We’re going to make Seattle the most progressive city in America.” The campaigns were movements, centered around first-in-the-nation policy ideas involving wages, tenant law, anti-corporate campaign finance measures or such utopian fantasies as completely abolishing the police.

Seattle became one of the only cities to elect a real-deal socialist, of the type that wants to end capitalism — the outgoing Socialist Alternative Councilmember, Kshama Sawant.

Now candidates are talking about potholes. Building sidewalks. Hiring more cops. Fixing stuff.

There are 45 candidates running for seven seats. I can’t say that none of them are socialist at heart, and I definitely wouldn’t say that progressivism is on the run. We’re all liberals here, after all. But the mojo of the once-rising left sure seems missing.

I suspect the wolves have donned their sheep’s clothing but we will know more in a year. There has been so much damage done to Seattle that it would probably take a decade to heal even with the best wound care. And it isn’t going to get the best care. As soon as it appears to have life in it, the wolves will again attack and try to drain more blood.

Online Ammo Bank

This is a little different:

AmmoSquared Addresses Growing Demand for Alternative Assets

Nampa, ID – AmmoSquared Inc., the pioneer in online ammunition backed holdings, is answering the call from consumers seeking non-traditional ways to diversify their assets. The company offers a unique service by allowing customers to accumulate and store physical ammunition holdings off-site, providing an innovative way for individuals to build and protect tangible wealth while hedging against economic uncertainties.

As the global economy faces unprecedented challenges, many individuals are turning away from traditional asset accounts that can be vulnerable to fiat currency shocks such as stocks, bonds, and money market accounts. AmmoSquared’s ammunition-backed digital wallet offers a new approach for those concerned about the declining value of fiat currencies and the risks associated with conventional financial institutions.

“Ammunition is a physical, tangible asset that will never be worth zero,” says AmmoSquared CEO Dan Morton, “It’s more stable than cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which are still too volatile for most people to reliably use as an alternative store of value. Ammunition is more like gold, with intrinsic value based on the effort and cost of raw materials. It will never be worthless, nor will it vanish due to a tweet or hacker.”

AmmoSquared has developed a user-friendly platform that allows customers to build, store, and manage an ammunition inventory online. The company offers over 60 different caliber options to cater to the diverse needs of its customers. Asset holders take advantage of AmmoSquared’s secure, climate controlled, storage facilities, ensuring their ammunition holdings are kept in optimal conditions to preserve its value.

The company has also introduced features typically found in financial products, such as limit orders, percentage gains and loss tracking, and the ability to exchange between different calibers with just a few clicks. These features, combined with an easy-to-use interface, make AmmoSquared an attractive option for those seeking to purchase and store ammunition as an alternative safe haven for their excess funds.

AmmoSquared, which started in 2015 as an ammunition subscription service, has evolved into something akin to an ammunition bank. They offer customers a unique way to diversify their savings into a tangible, useful asset. As dollar dominance wanes and people seek alternative safe havens for their excess cash, AmmoSquared provides a practical, secure solution that helps protect customers’ wealth in these uncertain times.

For more information about AmmoSquared and its innovative ammunition solutions, visit https://ammosquared.com/.

About AmmoSquared Inc.:

AmmoSquared is pioneering an online ammunition wallet or “bank account”, offering customers an innovative way to purchase and store ammunition while still meeting their everyday shooting and hunting needs. With a wide variety of calibers available, AmmoSquared’s platform provides a user-friendly experience that allows individuals to manage and diversify their assets with ease. The company is dedicated to providing secure storage solutions and exceptional customer service, positioning itself as a leader in the burgeoning ammunition depository market.

For further information, please contact:

marketing@ammosquared.com

www.ammosquared.com

America’s ‘Atlas Shrugged’ Moment has Arrived

Quote of the Day

As cities and blue states become more confiscatory and hostile to property rights, they drive out wealthier people and wealth creators. And as prosperous people leave, the politics become more confiscatory and hostile to property rights. And the cycle continues.

Jon Miltimore
May 8, 2023
America’s ‘Atlas Shrugged’ Moment Arrived, New IRS Data Show

Interesting observation. It is possible that all positive feedback loops in the social order are bad news for the participants. The only thing I know for certain is this feedback loop is not an exception.

I would like to have a good model for the state of things a decade or so after “Atlas Shrugged”. Somehow, I don’t think it will bear much resemblance to Gault’s Gulch in Colorado as envisioned by AI:

Seattle is Going to Get Worse Before it Gets Better

Quote of the Day

We are walking down a very well taken path. And this board will be the ones leading us.

Tammy Morales
April 28, 2023

Watch through the end pic.twitter.com/PjKeMtCWn9

To be fair, there are others on the board as well. See this announcement for more information. There is damning material it is as well. I especially “like” the part about “social housing” where the rental price is according to what people can afford to pay. This slogan echoes from 150 years ago:

From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.

This is indeed a well taken path.

The Everything Collapse

Quote of the Day

The inevitable consequence of the current Global Debt Bubble will be the Bankruptcy of the financial system and many of its participants.

The one Swiss and three US banks that just went under is just a foretaste of what is to come.

As the US and European banking systems come under pressure, The Everything Collapse will cause a collapse in financial markets of a magnitude that has never before been seen in history. Since the global financial system is a mesh which reaches every financial player in the world, from sovereigns to private individuals, no-one will be able to escape the The Everything Collapse.

Egon von Greyerz
April 16, 2023
FIRST GRADUALLY THEN SUDDENLY – THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE

The author is trying to sell you gold. There is a strong potential for bias in the analysis and claims.

However, with the U.S. debt increasing by a trillion dollars per year it seems more plausible.

The Chart that has Launched a Thousand Takes

Quote of the Day

This is the chart that has launched a thousand takes.

The conclusion seems obvious: Everything the govt touches goes to infinity in price. Everything pure capitalism touches goes to zero.

But there’s another way of looking at this graph that dramatically changes the story.

image

Derek Thompson @DKThomp
Tweeted on March 18, 2023

The details of “the other way of looking at the graph” is at the linked tweet. It is claimed:

It’s not just govt vs. capitalism

It’s also services vs. goods.

But I see Cellphone Services and Food and Beverages out of the claimed groupings. Still, it is an interesting graph.

The Winning Mindset is Destroyed

Quote of the Day

I’ve always been puzzled by how many abandoned and buried cities there are. What happened to entire civilizations?

Now we are watching human population collapse in a number of countries.

Makes me wonder if all human civilizations fail for the same reasons. What would those reasons be?

My guess is that pockets of humans develop belief systems that drive success, but success creates space for diverse opinions, and then the winning mindset is destroyed.

That’s what is happening in America. Traditional American values — with all its flaws — created a strong country. Now we have the luxury of entertaining less productive mindsets that are destroying the foundation.

Maybe that happens to every civilization.

Scott Adams @ScottAdamsSays
Tweeted on March 29, 2023

Interesting hypothesis. I don’t see any obvious flaws. In our particular case, the ever increasing debt spent on unproductive things is a strong datapoint in support of this hypothesis.

Nationalized banks?

Quote of the Day

Joe Biden is spending the country into oblivion. He is bailing out wealthy depositors at these banks. Under Biden, our once-private banking industry has essentially been nationalized, too. With each year this man remains in office, a little bit more of America you and I knew will be chipped away. Eventually, we will look much like the European Union: a boon for crony capitalists and a nightmare for innovators.

Brandon Weichert
March 15, 2023
Joe Biden Might Have Just Destroyed America’s Banks

We live in interesting times. Prepare appropriately.

On socialism and communism

Quote of the Day

In the end, we will be okay. The economy might crash, but in fundamentals we’re okay. Even manufacturing is reviving, even if it’s doing so in American fashion: fewer workers needed, less expense, more production, more profit.

We will be okay. Might “crash” in externals and structure for a while, before coming back, though. Same with the rest of our symptoms.

But we’re the majority. And we’ve already won.

The mop up is going to hurt like a b*tch.

But be not afraid. We got this.

In the end we win, they lose.

Because 2+2=4.

Sarah Hoyt
February 8, 2023
DOING THE ARITHMETIC

The post is about socialism and communism. I think she has things figured out as well as anyone.

Quote of the day—Steve H. Hanke, Barry W. Poulson

U.S. debt has increased more rapidly than national income for more than half a century, creating what is often termed “debt fatigue.” The Congressional Budget Office reports that federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP increased to 98 percent in 2022 and is projected to increase to 185 percent by 2052, implying that Americans’ debt fatigue will only worsen. The fiscal rules enacted by Congress to constrain debt have clearly failed, and the federal government has virtually abandoned any semblance of a rules-based fiscal policy. Indeed, the debt ceiling has been routinely lifted or suspended, and the spending caps imposed by the 2011 Budget Control Act have been largely flaunted and were allowed to expire in 2022.

Steve H. Hanke, Barry W. Poulson
January 9, 2023
It’s Time to Put a Brake on the Debt-Ceiling Charade
[Most sources put the ratio about 120% or higher,

The debt “ceiling” is a total joke.

Prepare appropriately.—Joe]