We Live in Interesting Times

Quote of the Day

Gold has been on a parabolic run since October last year, rallying from near the $1,800 level to score consecutive back-to-back all-time record highs – not once, not twice, but on 37 separate occasions, so far this year.

Yes, you read that correctly. That’s 37 all-time record highs, so far in 2024.

On Tuesday, Gold prices skyrocketed to a new all-time record high of $2,758 an ounce, surpassing the precious metals previous all-time high of $2,749 an ounce reached only a day earlier – extending its gains by an impressive 53%, from this time 12-months ago.

According to GSC Commodity Intelligence – “Gold’s record-breaking run has been nothing short of impressive. Never before in history have we seen the precious metal score multiple back-to-back all-time record highs in such a short space of time”.

Phil Carr
October 24, 2024
Will The New BRICS Currency Supercharge Gold Prices? | FXEmpire

Of course, another way to read this is that the dollar has reached a new low.

Prepare appropriately.

Interesting Psychology Lesson

The L.A. Times and the Washington Post both decided to not endorse a presidential candidate this time.

My initial thought was they had decided to try appearing to be more factual rather than cheerleaders for their preferred political party. Perhaps it would be better for business, right?

But other people have a much different interpretation the decision. From the article linked to above:

… a desire to avoid angering Donald Trump, and/or a move to avoid angering readers.

I never saw that coming. After calling him a threat to democracy, a felon, a rapist, and literally Hitler they are now concerned endorsing Harris will make Trump and/or his supporters angry. Really?

That sounds like the rational of a paranoid person. They have the mindset that Trump is incredibly evil and will use any power he acquires to exact a business and/or life-threatening revenge. And anyone that appears to give Trump the slightest of concessions must be doing it out of fear.

But shouldn’t the failure to endorse Harris result in a concern about invoking her wrath?

See also:

What I find most interesting is that my immediate thought of why they did that apparently did not occur to anyone writing in the legacy news media. I am not a normal person.

Private Enterprise Demonstration

Quote of the Day

Read the whole thing. He expects the booster to ultimately have a one-hour turnaround time.

In the late 1990s I expressed the thought that, if he wanted, Bill Gates could afford to finance a manned Mars mission. My friend, Eric Engstrom, claimed it would cost more money than what Gates had. I hadn’t done any number crunching but was skeptical of that claim. It seemed Eric was using NASA numbers. I had briefly worked on a shuttle orbiter project and saw enough of NASA bloat to be very suspicious of NASA numbers. NASA, being a government entity, was going to spend something on the order of at least ten times more than what private enterprise would require.

Among other things, the technology NASA was using was absurd. Part of the extreme expense was that they would not allow technology that did not have the required reliability numbers. Fair enough, except to get those numbers required something like 20 years of use. The integrated circuits they had the numbers on were no longer manufactured! The circuit boards had to be double sided! Multiple layer circuit boards came out in the 1960s. But since the Shuttle was designed in the 1970s there wasn’t enough reliability data on them to make NASA happy. When I was working on my little project in the late 1980s NASA would not allow replacement parts to be anything other than what the original design used.

You should not be surprised that SpaceX is running technological circles around NASA efforts.

See also these videos:

This post was heavily inspired by an email from pkoning with the subject line of “SpaceX magic” and this link: SpaceX arm ‘catches’ Super Heavy rocket booster | Fox Business Video.

We Can Line All Those Guys Up and Shoot ’em

Quote of the Day

We can line all those guys up and shoot ’em. And they clearly don’t understand the way the world works.

Phillip Lowcock 
October 9, 2024

Via a post on X from Chuck Petras @Chuck_Petras.

Violence. It is their language. It is what they think they can do. It is what they do.

See also:

I find it “interesting” that in the video he clearly says, “… we can…”. But in the msn.com, Newsweek, cjonline.com, and ksnt.com articles they “quote” him as saying, “…we could…”. Other articles don’t provide any quotes at all. They just say “Lowcock made some remarks about some men.”

What bias in the mainstream media?

Perhaps you really can’t hate the media enough.

We Are Glad We Don’t Live in a Hurricane Zone

Barb and I saw some of the terrifying videos of the destruction caused by hurricane Helene:

We are so pleased we don’t live in a hurricane zone.

Instead, we live in a place with earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes.

There Are Many Answers

Quote of the Day

There is but one answer to be made to the dynamite bomb and that can best be made by the Winchester rifle.

Theodore Roosevelt
1887
Did Teddy Roosevelt Say the ‘One Answer to Terrorism’ Is a Winchester Rifle?

Via an email, which had “terrorism” instead of “the dynamite bomb” in the quote, from pkoning.

While it captures the appropriate sentiment succinctly, it is not all that accurate these days. It appears to me that Israel is doing rather well in their fight against the terrorists/dynamite-bombers in their neighborhoods while using few, and perhaps zero, Winchester rifles. As was reported in a briefing at work last week:

They compromised the supply chain and delivered pagers with explosives to Hezbollah leadership. They blew them up almost simultaneously. Hezbollah then went to walkie-talkies and those were blown up. When Hezbollah then assembled in a single building for face-to-face communication, they blew up the building.

This will be studied and admired for years to come as one of the most creative, complex, and well executed operations in the history of warfare.

Precision guided bombs, M-4s, M-16s, tanks, and hand grenades have been delivering some very authoritative answers as well.

Whatever you think of their religion, ethics, and/or political behavior, they have certainly demonstrated if you don’t respect them, you risk coming to fear them.

I hope gun owners don’t have to teach similar lessons to those who fail to respect us and our rights.

A Specific Enumerated Right–VOID by Passing Hurricane

Via a posts on X by Chuck Petras @Chuck_Petras and Bryan LaFonte
@bryanlafonte

There are few other situations where you would need defensive weapons more than when the social structure has been ripped apart. Either this is either mind boggling stupid or deliberate enabling of criminals.

I hope he enjoys his trial.

Tens of Millions Believe Political Violence is Justified This Election

Quote of the Day

Pape surveyed more than 2,000 Americans in late June, before the first attempt on Trump’s life on July 13. The survey found a disturbing willingness, across the political spectrum, to say that violence was warranted to eliminate political foes.

The poll, from the Chicago Project on Security & Threats, released in June, showed that 6.9% of Americans — or the equivalent of 18 million adults — believed that it was justified to use force to restore Trump to the White House. In another question, 10% of Americans — or the equivalent of 26 million adults — said they believed political violence is justified to prevent Trump from becoming president again.

James Rainey, Kevin Rector
September 15, 2024
A second assassination attempt against former President Trump raises new questions (msn.com)

The ratio of people on the left willing use violence compared to people on the right in consistent with my hypothesis.

With 26 million people believing violence is justified to stop Trump from reaching office we should expect assassination attempts every few weeks. And every attempt against Trump increases the likelihood of an attempt on Harris.

Remember, the spark that started WW1 was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. A civil war could easily be sparked by a political assassination in this country.

Prepare appropriately.

Another Assassination Attempt

This is an election for the record books. There has been what is being called another assassination attempt on former President Trump:

Donald Trump targeted in ‘second assassination attempt’ FBI reveals as man with AK and Go-Pro arrested (msn.com)

A man with an AK-style rifle pointed the firearm’s muzzle into Donald Trump’s golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida, as the former president was playing a round, prompting the U.S. Secret Service to open fire, according to three law enforcement officials.

The former president is safe and unharmed, and the FBI says it is investigating “what appears to be an attempted assassination” of the Republican presidential candidate.

See also:

Secret Service fires at gunman after apparent ‘attempted assassination’ on Trump (msn.com)

The FBI is investigating what it called an “attempted assassination” of former President Donald Trump after Secret Service agents fired at a man with an AK-47 on or near Trump’s Florida golf course on Sunday.

A spokesperson for Donald Trump‘s campaign said the former president is “safe.” Law enforcement sources told ABC News a suspect is in custody.

Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw said the gunman was 300 to 500 yards away from the former president when he was spotted. Secret Service agents fired and the suspect dropped the gun and fled, a senior law enforcement official told ABC News. It was not clear if the suspect was aiming his weapon at Trump.

The source said the suspect got into a vehicle and witnesses reported the license plate number which was tracked by authorities. The suspect was stopped and taken into custody.

Even at 300 yards a semi-auto AK has pretty low odds of connecting with a single fatal shot. But it sounds like the suspected assassin may have been waiting for Trump to get closer.

Secret Service agents prevent Trump shooting; suspect captured with help of witness (komonews.com)

A gunman was captured Sunday after apparently trying to shoot former President Donald Trump at a golf course in Florida.

Trump is OK, and no injuries were reported by authorities after Secret Service agents fired at the gunman they spotted in the bushes.

Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw said the incident took place about 1:30 while the former president was golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach.

They immediately sealed off the area, after Secret Service agents fired four to six rounds at the gunman.

The agents were a couple of holes ahead of where the former president was playing when they spotted a rifle barrel sticking out of the course shrubbery.

I could make a lot of speculative comments but I’m going to let the story develop more before saying what Trump supporters are probably already thinking.

National Debt Will Turn Us Into Gaza

Quote of the Day

A halfpinion looks at either the costs or benefits of a plan but not both.

Gaza residents were brainwashed to have a halfpinion about how to deal with Israel. October 7th was them getting the “benefit” too many of the residents wanted.

Now they are experiencing the “cost” side.

America has this same halfpinion disease. That’s why our national debt will turn us into Gaza fairly soon.

Scott Adams @ScottAdamsSays
Posted on X August 24, 2024

The same “disease” affects the gun control nuts too.

The U.S. Dollar Global Reserves Fall to 59%

Quote of the Day

The global reserves count of the U.S. dollar has now fallen to 59% in 2024, reported the Atlantic Council The U.S. dollar in reserves stood at 72% in 2002 and has been declining steadily in the last two decades. In 22 years, the USD declined 13% in the markets as developing countries are distancing the currency from their reserves. In no surprise, BRICS member China’s local currency, the yuan, rose 3% during the same period.

Vinod Dsouza
August 10, 2024
BRICS: U.S. Dollar in World Reserves Fall Below 60% (watcher.guru)

We live in interesting times. Prepare appropriately.

AR-15 Ban Ruled Unconstitutional

Another small step:

N.J.’s ban on AR-15 ‘assault’ rifles is unconstitutional, federal court rules – nj.com

A federal court judge on Tuesday ruled New Jersey’s ban on AR-15 rifles is unconstitutional, a decision that could force the state to lift its decades-old prohibition on certain semi-automatic weapons.

The judge’s ruling was limited in scope — it applies only to one type of firearm, the Colt AR-15, and allows “for use of self-defense within the home.”

The same ruling says the ban on normal capacity magazines is constitutional.

But this is New Jersey. Any step in the correct direction is welcome. And it may create a circuit split which makes it more likely we get a ruling from SCOTUS.

We Need Common Sense Knife Laws

England is reaping what you would expect with their gun ban:

Taylor Swift ‘in shock’ after horrific UK stabbing, as police say 3rd child dies – ABC News (go.com)

LONDON — A third young girl has died following a stabbing spree at a children’s Taylor Swift-themed event in the United Kingdom, police said Tuesday, as the pop star reacted on social media saying she was “in shock.”

Officers responded just before noon on Monday to reports of a stabbing at a property in Southport, a seaside town about 20 miles north of Liverpool, according to Merseyside police.

Two girls, 6-year-old Bebe King and 7-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe, were killed, and nine other children were injured, police said.

Expect demands for more knife control.

Don’t laugh! The U.K. does have restrictive knife laws. And theirs are nothing compared to that in some parts of China:

In locked-down Xinjiang, China is tracking kitchen knives with QR codes – Fast Company

In China’s tightly controlled Xinjiang region, home to the mostly Muslim Uighur ethnic group, commonplace purchases from knives to gasoline are strictly controlled with ID checks amid a growing high-tech surveillance push, the Wall Street Journal reports this week.

A knife shop owner in the midwestern city of Aksu told the Journal he had to spend thousands of dollars on a machine that turns every “customer’s ID card number, photo, ethnicity and address,” encodes the data as a QR code and lasers it into the blades of even the kitchen knives they buy. The Aksu policy, which was previously reported by Radio Free Asia, is intended to trace a knife back to its owner in the event it’s used to commit acts of violence.

See also here.

Thoughts on Computer Security

The CrowdStrike Internet disaster prompted me gather some thoughts which have been percolating in my mind for a while. The CrowdStrike event puts a little different spin on them and perhaps, if desirable, will get my thoughts more attention. Of course, this could be my naivete and everyone else already knows all this.

When I worked in the Cyber Security Group at Pacific Northwest Laboratory one of the things I was asked to do was to review and comment on a DHS proposal for making the Internet more secure. In the paper was the suggestion that the Federal Government have a central location with gatekeeping capabilities to isolate sections of the Internet from each other to prevent worms from spreading to the entire Internet. I advocated against this because having a single (even if somewhat distributed) point of control/failure would make it an exceedingly attractive target. Sure, it could be made very secure. But with that big of a payoff for access it will be attacked by the best of the brightest of most nation states as well as those with common criminal intent. When the bad guys inevitably get access, those who intended to make the Internet more secure will be responsible for enabling a catastrophe.

I suspect most large companies are in a similar situation and/or are inadvertently working toward one. At my company most of our security monitoring is being migrated into the cloud. I can’t imagine a major corporation not using Office 365. Which depends on Azure. And I’m sure many other critical or nearly critical products are could based in every company. I used to work at Microsoft and trust Microsoft to do a good job with their security/reliability/etc.. Amazon and Google do as well or better than Microsoft, but the payoff for breaching one of these cloud providers is so great that I find it difficult to imagine it won’t someday be breached/shutdown in some form.

Of course, the same goes for any highly used system. CrowdStrike probably wasn’t breached. But it was a single point of failure for a large section of the planet. And the consequences of this accident probably cost billions. And I shouldn’t have to remind anyone about the SolarWinds hack and how many companies that affected.

And if you want to get really concerned, think of what happened in the TV series Battlestar Galactica. The enemy robots compromised all the computerized systems of human civilization and used that to hide their nuclear strike and suppress the defenses. We now have AI built into our computer security. Enemy robots don’t even have to break and enter. They just need to convince their AI cousins to switch sides.

I don’t know that there is a practical solution. I know what I advocated for in the DHS proposal. I advocated for independent solutions providing diversity and redundancy of the Internet. Even if you postulate an infinitely benign government, government control of everything is a single point of failure.

Having diverse hardware, software, processes, and people (hardware and software are not the only things which can be hacked and/or broken) is very expensive to implement, operate, and maintain. And redundancy is a surprisingly difficult task. As a Boeing Reliability Engineer once told me, “It doesn’t much matter how many backup systems you have. What matters is, how independent they are.” Having the ability to land safely with three out of four engines shutdown doesn’t matter if someone contaminated the fuel in the supply truck.

Perhaps there isn’t a practical solution. But people should at least be aware and hence they may be able to mitigate risks in some instances.

Spoofed Journalists?

Quote of the Day

Crowdstrike is aware of reports of crashes on Windows 4 related to the Falcon sensor. Please monitor the status via the tech alert on our customer support portal.

A message on the Crowdstrike technical help line
July 19, 2024
CrowdStrike outage sparks global chaos with airline, bank and other disruptions | WMAY – 92.7 WMAY

There was a Windows 4. Better known as Windows NT 4. Which, of course, is something like 20 years past end of life.

The above quote was on many major news sites. But as of late July 19th, 2024 a search for “Crowdstrike is aware of reports of crashes on Windows 4 related to the Falcon sensor” will yield lots of hits. But clicking through, some of them do not have that quote.

I suspect someone managed to spoof a bunch of “journalists”.

Yet another data point demonstrating you cannot trust the media.

On Emperors

Quote of the Day

We should be thanking the stupid commie bastards. We just wanted to elect him as president.

Shit like that will make him a f–k’in emperor.

MTHead
July 15, 2024
Comment to Call for Calm

As I am not a fan of emperors I won’t be thanking anyone about this.

That said, I did think this was rather funny. I really like sick humor…

The Odds of Civil War Just Increased

Remember what I said last October:

Another “interesting” scenario, made more likely by the current high emotions on both sides of the political fence, are that the candidate for one party or another is assassinated. Then, before the election, the other major candidate is assassinated.

Today:

Former President Donald Trump was wounded on a Pennsylvania campaign stage by a sniper’s bullet Saturday night in an apparent assassination attempt that nearly claimed his life, law enforcement sources told The Post.

image

The pictures from some angles look like a bullet hole through the upper right ear.

If you look at this flag you can see there was a fair amount of wind:

image

The linked articles says, “Law enforcement sources said that the bullet may have been deflected by glass before Trump was struck in the face.” I would like to throw my hypothesis into the pot and say the sniper misread the wind.

As I told daughter Jaime after she sent me a text message about the attempt:

It will take at least two days for the rumors to fade and something resembling the truth comes out.

The conspiracy theories will last for decades.

An assassination does prevent the target from obtaining office. A failed assassination attempt probably increases the chances the target will obtain office.

Attempted or successful, it increases the odds of more political violence. The odds of civil war just increased.

I want my underground bunker in Idaho.

BRICS Gold-Backed Currency to Launch at 2024 Summit?

Game changer:

BRICS aims to launch a new currency that will be backed by gold as a counter to the US dollar. A common currency will make the alliance usher into a new financial era and become a cornerstone for further developments. The upcoming summit in 2024 will shed more light on the policies that are aimed to topple the US dollar.

We live in interesting times.

Russia Versus America and NATO

I think I found this on X or Gab. I’m just not sure where:

A Russian wife turned to her husband and asked, “What’s this special military operation our glorious leader keeps talking about?” Her husband replied, “It’s a war to stop America and NATO.” “Oh, right” she says “How’s it going?”

“Well” he replied “so far we have lost over 20 generals, 100,000 troops killed, countless injured, 3000 tanks, 300 aircraft, hundreds of helicopters, countless armoured vehicles, artillery and trucks, our flagship along with other naval ships, our army is being defeated in most areas and we have had to resort to conscripting 500,000 Russians including murders and rapists to replace our losses”.

“Wow” replied the wife “what about America and NATO”?

“They haven’t turned up yet”

While not entirely true, there is probably a little too much truth to be funny to the top Russian politicians and the military.

Gold Price Rally is a Complete Mystery

Quote of the Day

The rally is defying a lot of normal thinking, especially when it comes to still-elevated rates. I think the narrative is changing towards sticky inflation and perhaps a hard landing, spiced with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty and de-globalization driving central bank demand.

Ole Hansen
Head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS
April 7, 2024
Gold price rally to record highs is a complete mystery | Fortune

I’m concerned it is not actually a mystery. I suspect it is a reality nearly everyone does not want to believe.