Fix Your Statistics

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Some simple things that could be done to reform Earth science from its present disaster state:

– Discard the idea of ‘p-values’ and ‘statistically significant’ data. Report likelihood functions and as much raw data as possible; have an epistemology in which different effect sizes are different hypotheses (since they make the data differently likely). A large experiment that suggests an effect size of 0.05 has *failed* to replicate a small experiment with an effect size of 0.2.

– This will also make “meta-analyses” much easier; point up when different hidden experimental conditions are producing different effect sizes and naively implying incompatible states of reality; reduce positive bias in reporting experimental results by averting the idea that an ‘insignificant’ result is a failure; etc etc. A lot of the problems in modern science really are just the result of using epistemically awful math!

Eliezer Yudkowsky @ESYudkowsky
Tweeted on April 24, 2023

This applies to more than statistics for Earth science.

Of course, I could be biased. I like working with likelihood ratios/functions.

Read the whole thing for suggestions beyond just the math.

You are Not Paranoid

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The Federal Bureau of Investigation continues to tarnish its own reputation by vastly downplaying — by a factor of more than 10 — the number of incidents in which armed Americans stop spree killers. According to the FBI, the same people who can find no evidence of crime on Hunter Biden’s laptop, only 4.4% of these incidents were stopped by a good guy “civilian” with a gun. Analysis by the Crime Prevention Research Center shows the actual number is closer to 50% or more in some instances.

John Boch
October 7, 2022
FBI Massively Understates Shooting Statistics: Analysis Show Armed Americans Stop About Half of Active Killer Attacks

When I read things like this I frequently think, “You are not paranoid if they really are out to get you.”

Their Case is SO Weak

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Are you compensating for something?

William Wallace @bwoll1219
Tweeted on January 24, 2023

It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

It’s sometimes amazing how quickly they fall back to middle-school insults. This shows just how weak their case is.

This Should be a Clue

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When more than half of your residents would leave if they could it should be a clue to the public servants that they are doing something wrong:

Fifty-one percent of those surveyed said they would move to another state if they could, compared with 39% who said the quality of life in Washington is worth the cost. The remaining 10% said they didn’t know.

I didn’t read this until a few minutes ago but Barb and I talked about this on our walk this morning. It is very expensive to live here, but the “Bellevue Bubble” has its benefits.

The Second Amendment is Nonsense

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For years, an element of the gun-owning community has been belligerently defensive without ever acknowledging this problem. They certainly have not proposed any real, viable solution.

So I would say that the rest of us need to stop mollifying them. Forget all that nonsense about the Second Amendment…

If others won’t say it, I will: We do not need 400 million guns in our society — and there are very strong reasons to get rid of almost all of them.

Russ Baker
April 24, 2023
Why Nearly All of America’s 400 Million Guns Have Got To Go

Stack up buttercup.

Don’t ever let someone get away with telling you no one wants to take your guns.

Happy Preliminary Injunction Day, Illinois!

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The Supreme Court in
Bruen and Heller held that citizens have a constitutional right to own and possess
firearms and may use them for self-defense. PICA seems to be written in spite of the clear directives in Bruen and Heller, not in conformity with them. Whether well-intentioned, brilliant, or arrogant, no state may enact a law that denies its citizens
rights that the Constitution guarantees them. Even legislation that may enjoy the
support of a majority of its citizens must fail if it violates the constitutional rights of fellow citizens. For the reasons fully set out below, the overly broad reach of PICA
commands that the injunctive relief requested by Plaintiffs be granted.

Stephen P. McGlynn
April 28, 2023
Harrel v. Raoul

It is a nice ruling but it is at the district level. I don’t think the appeals court will be as friendly.

Via Miles in the comments. The title of this post was stolen from him.

See also SAF Wins Preliminary Injunction Against Illinois Semi-Auto Ban. The FPC was also involved in this. I donate thousands of dollars to them each year. It is money well spent. Please consider donating as well.

The decision has already been appealed.

Self Defense Is Murder

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NOBODY deserves to be fucking MURDERED, fucking SHOT in the head, just because they’re trying to break into your home with a fucking crowbar. Stop perpetuating gun violence.

Neily Dan @neily_dan
Tweeted on April 25, 2023

Defense of your home from someone forcibly entering your home with a lethal weapon is murder. I’ll have to think about that….

Hmmm… No. And I’ll just keep saying no until I run out of ammo.

My Guns Must Be Malfunctioning

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These weapons of war, assault weapons, have no reason other than mass murder. Their only purpose is to kill humans as rapidly as possible in large numbers.

Jay Inslee
April 25, 2023
Washington Is Now the 10th State With a Logically and Constitutionally Dubious ‘Assault Weapon’ Ban

If they really where “weapons of war” then that means they are protected by the Miller decision.

If their “only purpose really is to kill humans as rapidly as possible” then all my AR-15s must be malfunctioning because I have probably fired 10,000 rounds through them without killing anyone.

It is very clear Inslee is delusional or evil. And my bet is on evil.

SAF filed a lawsuit the same day as Inslee signed the bill into law.

I think there is a fair chance of getting a preliminary injunction. And I have a sliver of hope that someday we will get to see Inslee enjoy his trial.

Anti-gun Activist has Delusional Beliefs

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Those of us who are not gun fetishists are supposed to “keep our powder dry” on the subject, but it must be said: The Second Amendment is as antique as a muzzle-loaded long gun, and should be treated as a historical artifact.

…

The need for a well-regulated militia, crucial to the early history of the country, is no longer in play. We need to rewrite the amendment, dispensing with the oddball capitalization and punctuation, to fit the times:

The right of the people to serve in the armed services or the National Guard, or to serve as law enforcement officers if duly qualified, shall not be infringed.

Kirk Swearingen
April 23, 2023
The Second Amendment is a ludicrous historical antique: Time for it to go

It is as if he misses the entire point of the 2nd Amendment. It is for the people to preserve their free state by defending against a tyrannical government. It is not the right of the people to learn to shoot guns under the direction of government.

Reading the entire screed, I find it very telling that he ignores that in the Heller decision all nine Supreme Justices agree that the Second Amendment protects an individual right. They were not unanimous on the application to the particulars of the application of it to the D.C. law. But, they did all agree on the individual right aspect. Swearingen apparently believes he is a better constitutional scholar than all nine SCOTUS justices combined.

Lots of other “errors” could be pointed out but with that delusion, ignorance, or indicator of evil intent in your pocket you know you can confidently ignore anything further he has to say.

But don’t ever let someone get away with telling you that no one wants to take your guns.

Checkpoint WA-ID

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You can’t help but wonder how long before the border, for decades little more than a welcoming line on maps, becomes hardened somehow.

It already is, psychologically. It’s getting so you have to remind yourself that the two states are still part of the same country, with a common history and traditions. (The governors definitely need this counsel.) But when one side is threatening doctors in say, Coeur d’Alene, with a crime for even suggesting that citizens might travel to the other side — to Spokane, say — for their health care, wouldn’t a logical step at some point be to try to stop the citizens from going?

Same with buying assault weapons, except in the other direction?

I am not making a prediction that we will someday have a literal “Checkpoint Charlie” on the Idaho-Washington border.

But everything else written in this column sounds completely insane, yet it’s all true. So I’ve learned in this era of America fracturing — don’t shrug about the prospect that the crackup may be only just beginning.

Danny Westneat
April 22, 2023
The Cold War between WA and neighbor Idaho gets hotter

I have sometimes wondered about a similar checkpoint. Although I envisioned it at the line between King County (which contains Seattle) and anything east of there.

In any case, the difference in gun availability will be resolved in a year or two as the most oppressive of Washington gun laws will be struck down by the courts. I expect the abortion issue will remain for some time.

Back on the farm, we didn’t need weapons of war

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This is almost one of the fractally wrong articles. From the conclusion, the paragraphs, the sentences, on to the premises are wrong:

Back on the farm, we didn’t need weapons of war

The Second Amendment allows us to bear arms, and there are plenty of guns available to suit every instance necessary in a civilized society! What the Second Amendment doesn’t say is that everyone has the right to bear weapons of war — those that were designed to kill humans fast and with one bullet. Ordinary people do not need assault rifles with oversized magazines containing high velocity bullets.

I’ll just make one point and let you roll your eyes at the rest of his errors and/or lies.

The Second Amendment doesn’t “allow use to bear arms”. It guarantees the government will not infringe upon our right to bear arms. And, in the Miller decision SCOTUS said that means it protects the right to own firearms used by the militia. Hence, “weapons of war” are specifically protected.

Gun Owners are Fearful, Isolated, Rhetoric Filled Individuals

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Interesting claims:

“It’s the fearful, isolated, rhetoric filled individual that feels such a great need to defend themselves all the time and everywhere. And it’s hard to value another human when you’re not connected to them, even when your view of them comes from social media news and not the unbiased stuff that you and I grew up on that went away in 1987 when the FCC got rid of the fairness right, the fairness rules for media, the Fairness Doctrine. So what we did is what we look for in those,” he said, discussing the effect these sources have on people’s psyche.

“And the more you fill your head, your psyche, and the more you read and watch, the more you get disrupted, and you feel far more vulnerable. And now fear and anxiety and worry starts to make choices, including protecting yourself,” Dr. Gilliland continued, addressing how social media does not only impact adolescents negatively but adults as well.

Citation needed.

This is what they think of you.

I claim it is the fearful, bubble isolated rhetoric filled person who has never been to a gun range, match, or store who harbors such a dystopic view of our culture. Just watch the KING5 Evening Magazine video on Boomershoot or any of the other media coverage and you will see this guy is delusional and/or lying.

The news was unbiased prior to 1987? Ouch! My sides hurt from laughing so hard.

As Expected they are Incoherent, Ignorant, Emotional, and Insulting

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Once again, you’re living in a fantasy world.

You couldn’t defend yourself against a rabid chipmunk.

Go take your flaccid penis and your micro ego and try posturing to someone else.

You are nothing to me, traitor.

If I saw you drowning I would give you a glass of water.

ANTIFA CHRIST * You are better than MAGA! @ClayMoore1966
Tweeted on January 22, 2022

It’s not only another Markley’s Law Monday, it is another science denier!

The entire thread is almost incoherent. But, what do you expect from anti-gun people?

Well, as we now know, we can expect ignorance, emotionalism, and childish insults.

Broken Hammer

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I don’t know how or when this happened but the gun has probably fired 100,000 rounds so that is a decent run for the one part. The replacement, from a different manufacturer, is on the left. The original is on the right.

image

Enemy of the State

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History is repeating. In today’s America, the rightists are those who don’t conform. They are labeled as the extremists, racists, the bigots, the white supremacists, domestic terrorists, haters..  in short, they are regarded as the enemy of the state.

Xi Van Fleet @XVanFleet
Chinese by birth; American by choice. Survivor of Mao’s Cultural Revolution. Defender of liberty.
Tweeted on April 21, 2023

First and Second Amendment Violation

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They are getting more and more blatant and need to be slapped down:

Jurors found an Orange Park business owner guilty on all counts in a federal trial about marketing thousands of illegal machine-gun conversion devices through a web-based company advertising on YouTube.

A Wisconsin gun dealer whose gun-centered YouTube channel has 180,000 subscribers was convicted of conspiracy with Auto Key Card owner Kristopher “Justin” Ervin as well as four counts of transferring the unregistered devices.

…

Ervin sold card-shaped strips of stainless steel etched with patterns for equipment colloquially called a “lightning link” that can convert a semiautomatic AR-15 rifle into a fully automatic machine gun that fires round upon round from a single trigger-pull.

Although a buyer would have to follow the etched lines with a cutting tool, prosecutors argued the cards qualified as conversion devices, which the federal government treats like machine guns that have to be registered and regulated under the National Firearms Act of 1934.

The YouTube guy was convicted of accepting advertising from the maker of the credit card shaped piece of metal with an outline of the shapes for “lightening links”. They looked like these:

image

Why isn’t this a violation of both the First and Second Amendments? Why isn’t the prosecuting team being disbarred and prosecuted for violation of civil rights?

Consistency

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Via The Redheaded libertarian (@TRHLofficial):

Them: Banning abortions won’t make them stop.
Me: okay but will banning guns stop mass shootings?
Them:
Me:
Them: f*** you.

When the debate response is an insult you know you have won. Markley’s Law is a case in point.

Data and concise arguments worked?

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The turnout was very good, overflowing into other rooms with about six to one against the ban. The witnesses laid out concise arguments with good data and delved into the actual causes of mass killings.

Shawn Herrin
April 19, 2023
Blue State Shoots Down Ban On So-Called ‘Assault Weapons’

I’m surprised! Data and arguments of any type are usually pointless in opposition to gun grabbers.

UR a Smart Ass, Carl @Ur_a_Smartass_C

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After I got shot, laying in my hospital bed, I said to myself. “There will never be another person standing over me with a gun, holding all the power to determine if I will live or die”

I have never supported gun control since. It’s not gun control, it’s the power to control the defenseless.

UR a Smart Ass, Carl @Ur_a_Smartass_C
Tweeted on March 31, 2023

A lot of people have stories to tell about why they are “gun nuts” of some flavor or another.

Barb has hypothesized that my abusive and sometimes brutal grade school experience contributed to my interest in guns and self defense. I told a coworker about one of my experiences and he said, “If that were to happen today it would make the national news.”

I suppose Barb could be right. But I did not get emotional involved and buy my first gun until the Ruby Ridge incident occurred. That was long after the time when I could have legally purchased a gun and my own children were in grade school.

The Everything Collapse

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The inevitable consequence of the current Global Debt Bubble will be the Bankruptcy of the financial system and many of its participants.

The one Swiss and three US banks that just went under is just a foretaste of what is to come.

As the US and European banking systems come under pressure, The Everything Collapse will cause a collapse in financial markets of a magnitude that has never before been seen in history. Since the global financial system is a mesh which reaches every financial player in the world, from sovereigns to private individuals, no-one will be able to escape the The Everything Collapse.

Egon von Greyerz
April 16, 2023
FIRST GRADUALLY THEN SUDDENLY – THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE

The author is trying to sell you gold. There is a strong potential for bias in the analysis and claims.

However, with the U.S. debt increasing by a trillion dollars per year it seems more plausible.