Category Archives: Politics

Useless Idiots

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Quote of the Day

Being out of actual new ideas, they’ve spent the last quarter century or so simply reflexively opposing anything a Republican President does. Bush and the Gulf War set them on the path of taking the side of the Muslim world.

And once they got on that tiger they had no choice but to keep riding it. Hope you are sitting down, but I’ll say that even Joe Biden must have been repulsed by the atrocities of October 7th. But by then he needed the Electoral Votes of Michigan more than he needed to have a soul.

Lost ’em both anyway.

Tacitus
October 18, 2025
The New Old Fashioned Hate – Chicago Boyz

I think I have posted something similar to this claim before. Democrats in this country reflexively opposes anything the Republicans say or do. This makes them vulnerable to manipulation and the current administration has been utilizing the vulnerability. It is not quite this simple but it illustrates the point, if President Trump says the sky is blue the Democrats feel morally obligated to claim it something other than blue.

This has led to President Trump claiming reasonable positions in the middle ground, such as trans women should not be competing with biological women in sports. And the Democrats lose several percentage points in the polls because they are compelled to oppose this position.

And what was the point of the “No Kings” protest? Did they think President Trump would change his behavior because of street protests? He got 312 electoral and 77,303,568 popular votes last year. Those are all that are important to him. The Democrats express all the emotional energy they can muster, and he just trolls them to urges them to even greater heights. Democrats believe they have accomplished something profound. Trump and his supporters get stomach aches from laughing so hard.

They are saying aliens in the country illegally are not criminals. They are shutting down the government to give free and/or subsidized healthcare to illegal aliens. Are they aware of the U.S. debt is approaching $38,000,000,000,000? Can’t they cut aid to criminals to help reduce that debt? More and more people are coming to believe they are deliberately trying to destroy this country.

I wish they would engage in a constructive debate. If they really tried, they probably could contribute some decent ideas and/or tweaks to the administration agenda that would be good for the country. But they cannot allow themselves to “collaborate with the enemy.”

It is no wonder they are polling at the lowest approval rating in decades. They have earned and continue to demonstrate their worthlessness nearly every day.

Sometimes I think they do not rise to the level of useful idiots. Perhaps, even, they cannot rise to that level. They are stuck at the level of useless idiots.

Alternate Framings/Realities

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It is amazing to me how reframing things makes such a huge difference in not just the point of view, but in the conclusions about reality. Here is one such example (via Sarah A. Hoyt):

I spent nearly four decades in a relationship with a woman who had problems with depression. When she got depressed any evidence of her/our situation would be rationalized into justification for the hopelessness of things.

For example, if we were tight on money because of an unexpected car repair or some such thing my pointing out that we both had steady jobs and would be back to normal in a month or two. But she could not see “the light at the end of the tunnel.” It was a catastrophe. If a depressive episode occurred when things well going well, she had rationalizations to justify her depression “This is just temporary. It will get worse tomorrow.” “It is all downhill from here. This is the best it will ever be.”

This affected even the most ordinary of things in her daily life. And the really sad part was the self-fulfilling prophecy of it. This literally happened more times than I could count… She would be driving down a street free of traffic with a green light ahead. She would start slowing down as she approached the light. She did this because she was afraid the light would turn red, and she would have to stop. Of course, this increased the chances the light would turn red, and her concern would be justified.

I could see the future as awesome with a “clear road ahead”. She could only see the bridge ahead being taken out by a meteor.

Or another reframing, after your wife has just had sex with another man:

Sloppy seconds always feel amazing

570_kinkycouple @5Kinkycouple

With the following comments:

Agreed!

Sex Club Diary @SexClubDiary

Yes they are love it 👅👅👅👅🔥

Tony @Tony38967281

With most men, assuming the wife didn’t get killed, it would mean a divorce. Yet, another set of men think this is awesome and something to be enjoyed. How can these two framings be compatible with the same data? Yet, they are. These are alternate, very real, realities.

From the engineering world one of my favorites is to tell people to solve tough problems by looking for a different point of view. Imagine never having seen a wheel before and viewing a heavily loaded cart from a distance moving straight away from you pulled by a single horse. How can that be? That just can’t work! But if you look at the cart from a 90 degree again to its direction of motion it is incredibly simple.

Politics are filled with examples. One of my favorite examples is destroying the “right” versus “left” view of politics. People tend to believe that if you are opposed to a few of the left-wing policies that you must be in favor of all of the right-wing polices. In essence, many people will shout, “There are only two choices!”

<heavy sigh>

No. There are many ways to view the political world. A simplistic way of understanding my view political ideal is, “Free markets, free minds.” With this point of view, you see people on both the right and left as incoherent and something to be opposed. Both “wings” want some things controlled by the government and other things free from government interference. They just want government oppression for different things.

And on a whimsical note, there are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary and those who do not.

If you look for these alternate framings/realities, you will soon see them everywhere. And in doing so, just as with the wheel example, you will find better solutions to problems of all types. Psychology, sex, engineering, politics, almost anything can be seen from different viewpoints. And finding better solutions to problems in all domains makes the world a better place.

Looting, Throwing Bombs, and Beating People

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A few days ago I posted about the irony of Antifa claiming they were “true Americans”. When John Schussler then asked, “What looting, bombings, or beatings are you referring to?”, I was shocked. I thought everyone was up to speed on those activities. Apparently, there are some information bubbles that sufficiently insulate people from reality.

The data is so overwhelming that I can’t imagine the legacy media does not know the truth. They are blatantly lying if they say Antifa is peaceful or does not exist as an organization. The people who believe the lies are, at best, willfully ignorance.

Here are some of the evidence links I found:

I highly recommend Andy Ngo’s book, Unmasked.

See also what Jonathon Turley has to say about them.

Turley has also written a book on them which I was not aware of until today.

I gave the listed links above to Copilot and asked for a blog post with citations supporting my assertion. This is the result:

Documented Criminal Acts Attributed to Antifa: A Summary of Reported Incidents

In recent years, Antifa-affiliated individuals and cells have been implicated in a range of criminal activities across the United States, including looting, bombings, assaults, and attacks on law enforcement. While Antifa is not a centralized organization, its decentralized networks and ideological cohesion have led to coordinated actions that, in several cases, escalated into violence. Below is a summary of documented incidents drawn from news reports, federal indictments, and investigative journalism.

1. Firebomb Ambush on Police in Atlanta

On March 5, 2023, a group of masked Antifa militants launched a coordinated ambush on police officers at the construction site of the Atlanta Public Safety Training Center. According to journalist Andy Ngo, the attackers used explosives, firebombs, and rocks, injuring officers and setting construction equipment ablaze. The incident was widely reported and documented with video evidence on social media platforms.

2. Looting in Austin, Texas

Three individuals identified as Antifa members were arrested for looting a Target store in Austin during a protest. The Travis County District Attorney’s office confirmed their affiliation and charged them with burglary and theft. Fox 7 Austin reported that the suspects were part of a broader protest that devolved into property destruction and theft.

3. Attack on ICE Facility in Texas

In a federal indictment unsealed in 2023, the Department of Justice charged two men affiliated with a North Texas Antifa cell for attacking an ICE facility. The indictment alleges that the men used incendiary devices and coordinated the attack as part of a broader anti-government agenda. The case underscores the federal government’s concern over violent extremism linked to Antifa ideology.

4. Assaults on Federal Officers in Portland

During the height of the 2020 protests in Portland, Oregon, four individuals were charged with assaulting federal law enforcement officers. The Justice Department detailed how the defendants used projectiles, including explosives and rocks, to breach federal property and injure officers. These incidents were part of a series of nightly confrontations that often involved self-identified Antifa participants.

5. Explosives and Riots at ICE Building in Portland

Fox News reported that rioters breached an ICE building in Portland using explosives and rocks, injuring officers and causing significant property damage. The report noted that many of the participants wore Antifa insignia and coordinated their actions through encrypted messaging platforms.

6. Investigative Reporting and Firsthand Documentation

Independent journalists such as Andy Ngo and Wiretap Media have extensively documented Antifa-related violence through firsthand footage, interviews, and social media posts. Ngo’s book Unmasked: Inside Antifa’s Radical Plan to Destroy Democracy compiles years of investigative work, detailing incidents of beatings, arson, and organized attacks on government institutions.

Conclusion

While Antifa is often described as a loosely organized movement, the documented incidents above suggest that its adherents have, in multiple cases, engaged in coordinated criminal violence. These actions have targeted law enforcement, government facilities, and private property, often under the guise of protest. The evidence presented here underscores the need for continued scrutiny and legal accountability for violent extremism, regardless of political affiliation.

Sources

  1. Antifa Launch Ambush Firebomb Attack on Atlanta Police
  2. Travis County DA: Three Members of Antifa Arrested for Looting Austin Target Store
  3. DOJ: North Texas Antifa Cell Attacked ICE Facility
  4. Four Defendants Charged with Assaulting Federal Law Enforcement Officers
  5. Officers Injured as Portland Rioters Breach ICE Building
  6. Unmasked: Inside Antifa’s Radical Plan to Destroy Democracy

The Way to Victory is to Talk About Price

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Quote of the Day

The way to victory is to talk about price. You could talk about the planetary emergency and mitigation and adaptation, and you could throw in some environmental justice rhetoric, and by the time you’re done talking, people think you don’t care about them.

Brian Schatz
U.S. Senator from Hawaii
September 2025
Democrats Aren’t Talking Climate Any More

It is very telling that it is all about “victory”, not what is good for the people or the country.

I find it amusing that after decades of pushing what they admitted were higher priced ways of generating electricity they are now claiming “clean energy” is actually cheaper (from the same article):

“Sometimes our messaging in the Democratic Party — not great,” Sherrill said in a March interview. “For years we’ve said, ‘We need to move into clean power.’ And there’s almost been this understanding, ‘It’s going to cost you an arm and a leg, but if you’re a good person, you’ll do it.’ So now that we’re actually in that place that we promised — it was going to be cheaper than any other source of power — people are skeptical.”

They have this weird belief that if they say something is true then it is. They literally believe their own B.S.

Constitutional Rights Cannot be Redefined by Agency Decree

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Quote of the Day

The injunction is significant—not only for its immediate protection of NRA members but also for the precedent it sets in reining in agency overreach. Beyond striking down a single rule, the ruling reasserts a fundamental principle: that the power to make or change laws lies with Congress, not unelected bureaucrats.

For the firearm community, Butler v. Bondi is more than a courtroom win. It is a reaffirmation that the boundaries of federal power must be respected, and that constitutional rights cannot be redefined by agency decree.

Susanne Edward
October 13, 2025
Judges Rule Against Another Biden-Era Policy | An Official Journal Of The NRA

This is good, but it reminds me of something else I want the gun rights organizations to work on… How does anyone believe the 2nd Amendment allows restrictions on interstate sales of firearms? Why can’t someone in California legally buy a gun in Oregon or Nevada without it being shipped to a California FFL?

It is not that I think the interstate sales restrictions should be a higher priority than semi-auto rifle bans, standard capacity magazine bans, and the “sensitive places” B.S. But it should be on the radar.

Also, in an era of President Trump pushing the envelope with executive orders, this precedent will be interesting in its application to recent events.

Right Wing? Left Wing? I Don’t Care

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They have a lot of things in common:

When the political left claims their opponents are Nazis fascists there is more than a little projection.

Right-wing and left-wing labels do not matter. What matters is, do the policies violate individual rights? If so, then those policies should be opposed.

Freedom is Incompatible with Equal

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Via The Atlas Society @TheAtlasSociety:

People demanding equality are demanding you give up your freedom.

Believe the Science

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Quote of the Day

The Left is admitting in surveys that they’re more politically violent. In Cygnal’s October national poll, 60% of young liberals said breaking the law is OK if you disagree with the government. And 41% of all liberals concurred. Only 14% of conservatives held this belief.

Brent Buchanan
Cygnal founder and pollster
October 16, 2025
Left greenlights political violence on eve of ‘No Kings’ revolts

It is in their nature (see also here).

I want my underground bunker in Idaho to be finished.

Power Over Principle

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Quote of the Day

They see this as a fight about how Democrats can start winning again, which makes it not merely tactical but also existential: Party officials, strategists, and activists have spent a year sifting through the wreckage of an election that was calamitous to the Democrats’ governing plans as well as their very understanding of themselves. And there is no shepherd to guide them. The party’s erstwhile leader, Joe Biden, is widely scorned. Harris, its would-be standard-bearer, is busy promoting a backward-looking volume of grievances.

Elaine Godfrey
October 14, 2025
The Democrats’ Heterodoxy Problem

As a libertarian/constitutionalist I’m always somewhat amused by a political party changing its policies. And here we have members of the Democrat party considering all policies up for revision as long as they can regain power:

“Permissive” isn’t a word you would use to describe Democrats over the past few years. The party has suffered from a perception that it has become intolerant of different perspectives and preoccupied with identity politics and language policing. Litmus tests aren’t just applied to gun policy, but to policies on LGBT rights, immigration enforcement, policing, and other matters.

But losing power has a way of shaking up party canon. And there are some signs that Democrats are ready to move past this era of ideological purity and rigidity.

I have my differences with Republicans, but the Democrats have been the sworn enemy of the Second Amendment for 60 years. To see them struggle with relevance, self-doubt, and even identity, invokes a fair amount of schadenfreude.

German National Socialist Workers Party

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I have often seen the National Socialist Workers Party of the 1920 to 1945 era in Germany described as “right wing”. But, with socialist right there in the name it is obviously deserves the “left wing” label. Correct?

Well… perhaps not. I asked Copilot and Grok about this. They agreed with each other, but Grok described it best:

The National Socialist German Workers’ Party (NSDAP, or Nazi Party) included “socialist” and “workers'” in its name as a deliberate propaganda tactic to appeal to disaffected working-class Germans during the economic turmoil of the Weimar Republic in the 1920s. The party’s precursor, the German Workers’ Party (DAP), was renamed in 1920 to attract voters away from actual left-wing parties like the Social Democrats (SPD) or Communists (KPD). Early party programs, such as the 1920 25-Point Program, included some anti-capitalist rhetoric—like calls for profit-sharing in large industries or nationalization of trusts—to sound revolutionary and worker-friendly.

However, this “socialism” was redefined in nationalist terms, rejecting core Marxist elements like class struggle, international worker solidarity, and the abolition of private property. Adolf Hitler explicitly distinguished it from Marxism, stating in 1930 that “Our adopted term ‘Socialist’ has nothing to do with Marxist Socialism. Marxism is anti-property; true Socialism is not.” Instead, Nazi “socialism” meant subordinating economic activity to the state’s national goals, preserving private enterprise as long as it served the “Aryan” race and the regime’s militaristic aims. The economy under Nazism was a mixed system with heavy state direction (e.g., for rearmament and public works like the Autobahn), but it involved privatization of public services, alliances with big business (such as IG Farben and Krupp), and suppression of independent trade unions in favor of the state-controlled German Labor Front. This corporatist approach aligned more with fascist economics than left-wing collectivism.

Personally, I reject the left/right labels as far too simple. While probably still too simplistic I find the Political Quiz | Political Typology Test a big improvement over “left vs. right” labeling.

Your mileage may vary.

The Peace of the Dead

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Quote of the Day

Dozens have been killed in Gaza during violent fighting Sunday and within hours of the expected release of hostages in the war-torn region, according to local reports.

…

According to reports via Israeli outlet Ynet, the violence erupted when Hamas militants raided the neighborhood of Sabra in Gaza City, home to a clan called Doghmush, also known as the Al Doghmush family militia.

The report said the Hamas Interior Ministry had accused a militia of attacking its forces, while members of the Doghmush clan said Hamas had exploited the ceasefire to target them over alleged cooperation with Israel.

…

In total, Ynet reported 52 members of the Doghmush clan were killed and 12 Hamas militants were killed.

Emma Bussey, Efrat Lachter
October 12, 2025
Dozens killed in Gaza as violence erupts between Hamas and armed clans

One has to wonder, “Do these people know how to do anything other than kill people?”

This is from the “religion of peace.” I suspect the only peace they will ever see is the peace of the dead.

True Americans

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Quote of the Day

The true AMERICANS of Antifa, the justice warriors, are working hard to keep America SAFE from “nazis”. One Molotov cocktail and busted out storefront at a time. Today, they don’t wear all black. Today is the EMERGENCY Naked Bike Ride in PDX. Today, many an “anti-fascist” shows their ass.

Literally.

Lisa Carr
October 12, 2025
Antifa Thinks They Are The True Americans – Victory Girls Blog.

It is good to know that looting stores, throwing bombs, and beating people are the acts of “True Americans.” When someone takes their stuff, returns a Molotov cocktail, or beats the crap out of them for looting, they will know they have met a kindred spirit.

Democrats Accept Reality and Choose to Pretend it Does Not Exist

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Quote of the Day

In her recently released book about her presidential candidacy, former Vice President Kamala Harris admits that she, too, shares concerns: “I agree with the concerns expressed by parents and players that we have to take into account biological factors such as muscle mass and unfair student athletic advantage when we determine who plays on which teams, especially in contact sports.”

But she added, “There was no way I was going to go against my very nature and turn on transgender people.”

And there it is. Tension unmasked. When reality collides with allegiance, the Democrats choose allegiance.

Macy Petty
October 10, 2025
High-ranking Democrats admit to knowingly abandoning women

Determining what is real is tough. Accepting reality can be almost as tough. Ignoring reality after you have determined what is real and accepting that it is real is insane and/or evil. In this case I am going with “and”.

Ideological Purity Only Works if Strongly Correlated with Reality

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Quote of the Day

Rapidly transforming the American public’s beliefs is a daunting task—all the more so if you dismiss their current values as unacceptable. The Democratic Party’s pragmatic wing has been pleading to broaden the tent, ideally before the Trump administration stamps out all opposition. The party’s progressives seem determined to reeducate the public rather than compromise for their votes. This is a seductive approach if the goal is ideological purity. It is a problem only if the party hopes to win elections.

Jonathan Chait
October 6, 2025
Democrats Still Have No Idea What Went Wrong

Ideological purity only works if the ideas have a strong correlation with reality. The problem Marxists have is that Marx’s ideas were found to be at odds with reality within a few years of him articulating them. His central concept, the labor theory of value, was rejected along with the incoherent fluff built upon that. He was a nobody until Lenin came along and concluded the incoherent fluff was actually genius.

Lenin brought Marx’s theories back from the dead, where they belonged, and laid the groundwork for the deaths of tens of millions in the Russia and U.S.S.R. As the Marxist infection spread worldwide over 100 million were murdered by their own governments. There have been hundreds of attempts to tweak the implementation of Marxist theory to create the promised utopia. While some of been far less deadly than others, the bottom line has always been that free markets and free minds outperform the Marx model of government.

Yet, 150 years after Marx’s ideas were first dropped into the dustbin, we have a major political party still trying to claim they have relevance. If they want to win elections (gain power) then they need to be at least somewhat content will a little power rather than a lot of power. They need to give up the authoritarian model of government. I suspect this is unacceptable to them and they would rather destroy the evidence they are wrong than accept the truth and exercise power within the confines of reality. The current government shutdown is only the most recent data point supporting this hypothesis.

Prepare appropriately.

Socialist’s Unquenchable Thirst for Power

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Quote of the Day

This is a painful lesson that a lot of us in the Palestine solidarity movement have been learning is that we don’t have power… what we don’t have is power… the question I’m asking myself, and I’m asking you to ask yourself, ‘is where can I actually build power?”

Eman Abdelhadi
Associate Professor of the University of Chicago’s Department of Comparative Human Development
At Socialism 2025, July 5, 2025
Far-left University of Chicago professor charged with violent felonies during anti-ICE riots in Broadview

As if you didn’t already know, socialists have an unquenchable thirst for power. And, of course, all Marxists know that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.

I leave the remainder of this lesson as an exercise for the reader.

Please prepare appropriately.

Can Someone Explain This to Me?

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I have seen the phrase “politically motivated” ever since I can remember. The most recent is here:

New York Attorney General Letitia James has been indicted on charges of bank fraud and false statements by a federal grand jury in Virginia. The indictment follows allegations related to a 2023 mortgage application and comes amid accusations of political retribution by President Donald Trump’s administration, which has faced criticism for targeting political opponents. James, who previously won a high-profile civil fraud case against Trump, denies the charges and claims they are part of a politically motivated campaign.

I get it, as Copilot pointed out to me:

if someone committed a crime, prosecution should follow. But the claim of political motivation isn’t always about denying the act—it’s about challenging the fairness, consistency, or intent behind the prosecution. In democracies, that challenge is part of the system’s self-correction mechanism.

But that isn’t the way I see it being used. It is used as an absolute defense. As in if the investigation or prosecution generates political advantage for some person in power, then there is nothing further to discuss. The investigation/prosecution should be halted.

Do people really believe that? Am I misreading the implications of its use? Is it just a “hail Mary” type of play when they are desperate to avoid the consequences of their crimes?

And, for the record, I am of the opinion that all government employees should be investigated and prosecuted for every hint of criminal or civil wrongdoing. They should be held to a much higher standard than people in private life.

Running on Fumes

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Quote of the Day

They’re [Democrats] not succeeding in persuading the American people that they’re up to a leadership role, which is why, after me being a Democrat for 60 or more years, I am now going to campaign very hard for the Republicans to maintain control of the House and the Senate. Not because I love the Republican agenda. It’s because I’m totally frightened if the Democrats were to gain control of either House. Who they would appoint as chair people? Who they would put in the position of inquisitors, and how they would deny rights to people, and how they would introduce a kind of McCarthyism that we haven’t seen since I was a college student in the 1950s?

Alan Dershowitz
October 7, 2025
‘I’m Totally Frightened’: Lifelong Democrat Dershowitz Says He’ll ‘Campaign Very Hard For Republicans’ In Midterms

When the Democrats have lost Dershowtiz, you know they are running on fumes.

We live in interesting times.

A Hint of Good News in Europe

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It’s not “free markets and free minds”, but at least it is less of the “to everyone according to their need and from everyone according to their ability” nonsense.

The Death of the Left

Substitute/Shortcut Method Used to Determine Truth from Falsity

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Quote of the Day

Make no mistake; we have a year before this country becomes a full-on autocracy, and democracy completely leaves us. And we’re looking at the election in 2026, and Donald Trump knows that in a free and fair election, he will lose. He will lose the House, the House will flip and will become in Democratic hands. There will be committee chairs who will be able to hold meetings, and this is the last thing he wants.

…

Don’t be surprised when polling booths are surrounded by American military in the guise of making sure that the elections are fair and that nobody is tampering with anything.

And when you see violence breaking out, which there’ll be protests, there’ll be inciting violence, there’ll be some violence, and they’ll keep that. Then you’ll see the commandeering of voting machines, ballot boxes to make sure that that election is secure. Well, what that means is that he will then commandeer the election.

Rob Reiner
October 5, 2025
Rob Reiner warns US has one year before becoming ‘full-on autocracy’ | Fox News

If Reiner were sharing his opinion on directing or acting someone might be able to learn something from him. But if he is offering his opinion on engineering, heart surgery, or politics you can be certain his prophecy is of zero, or negative, value.

In a perverse sort of way I find the psychology interesting.

It was in high school someone I knew told me something I thought was unlikely to be true. In attempted to convince me they pointed out how popular her source for the information was. This was incredibly confusing to me. How did the popularity of someone affect the truthfulness of something?

Later I saw it all around me. Adults with no hint of sarcasm or insincerity believed things based on the popularity of the person making an actual or implied claim of truth. If a politician said the cause of some bad situation was corporate greed, racism, or government regulation, people would believe it without evidence. If a sports figure had their picture on a cereal package, people would believe the contents of the box were empowered with special characteristics they would not have claimed the day before the picture was featured on the box. Toothpaste quality was judged by the teeth of the actress holding the box rather than the contents of the tube. In reality, the opinion of the next-door neighbors was probably just as valid.

People apparently have a hardwired propensity to believe a well-known figure. Evidence tends to be a hard sell in their struggle to discern reality. I get it that reality is hard. But wow! The substitute/shortcut methods used to determine truth from falsity are mind boggling messed up.

Accepting Reality

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Are we accepting the reality that we might already be at war, or are we still believing we are in control? We are allowing higher and higher levels of escalation with no proper answers.

If that continues, we need to expect a Pearl Harbor day for Europe, when the escalation will be so impossible to ignore that it will bring about a Western reawakening.

…

Instead of asking will we risk starting World War Three, the question is: will we risk stopping it?

Gabrielius Landsbergis
Former Lithuanian foreign minister
October 5, 2025
Europe is facing its ‘Pearl Harbor moment’

Accepting reality is almost as difficult as determining what reality is. And keep in mind that in war, truth is the first causality. Furthermore, people have a very strong tendency to believe what they want to believe.

So where does that leave us? If Russia really is intent in rolling up Eastern Europe to recover its lost glory from the peak of the Soviet bloc, then Western Europe will delay longer than they should have. If Russia really only wants Ukraine, then a case can be made that the path of least human suffering (after you add in the human cost on all sides of Western Europe going to war with Russia) is to let them have it unopposed.

The dilemma is that letting Russia have the Ukraine with even moderate support from the West runs a high risk of telling Russia they can get away with the roll up. Hence, even if they did not originally intend to roll up Eastern Europe, they will be incentivized by the inaction of the west to do what they had not planned to do. If the west does crank of the temperature dial on WWIII to HOT, then history will forever haunt us with the deaths of millions that might have lived if only we had listened to the appeasers.*

It is very nearly a lose-lose situation.

I think predictions are extremely difficult. Especially about the future. Think of it this way, you want to “accepting reality?” The problem is, no matter what reality you “accept” you change the reality.

Prepare appropriately for me means an underground bunker in Idaho.

* I forget who I was talking to recently who asserted that Russia will not attack a NATO country. Russia is close to being number two when they are only up against Ukraine. NATO, he asserted, would have a busy week, but Russia would cease to exist. Hence, there is no real downside for non-Ukrainians to let them have Ukraine.