Category Archives: Technology

Clickbait Predictions About Smartphones

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I’m predicting that, by 2025, voicebots will become so prevalent, so powerful, and so useful in all areas of business and our personal lives that we won’t need smartphones anymore.

John Brandon
October 16, 2017
Why Smartphones Will Become Extinct by 2025 | Inc.com

I’m predicting Brandon’s prophecy will not come true.

My guess is that he did not use a lot of the apps in use by millions of other people. So many people use the cameras on their phone multiple times per day. They listen to music, podcasts, and audible books. They use them for GPS based location services. They use them for multifactor authentication. They use them for fitness tracking. They even use them for voice and video calls.

The multiple sensors in our smartphone cannot be easily replaced. The GPS and compass are used for navigation services. The accelerometer is used for fitness apps and bubble levels to exterior ballistics apps. The camera is used for the obvious picture, but also plant identification, text translation, and product identification by the Amazon app so you can buy “whatever that cool thing is.” The Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and even lower powered communication radios are used for accessories, sharing contact information, money transfer, and identification..

I think the article was clickbait. As is this similar prediction from last week: The End of the Smartphone Era Is Approaching (msn.com).

Smart phones are going to be around until the services they currently provide and even more amazing features are available via more direct connections to our brains.

Microsoft and Privacy

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Microsoft has reaffirmed its ban on U.S. police departments from using generative AI for facial recognition through Azure OpenAI Service, the company’s fully managed, enterprise-focused wrapper around OpenAI tech.

Language added Wednesday to the terms of service for Azure OpenAI Service more clearly prohibits integrations with Azure OpenAI Service from being used “by or for” police departments for facial recognition in the U.S., including integrations with OpenAI’s current — and possibly future — image-analyzing models.

A separate new bullet point covers “any law enforcement globally,” and explicitly bars the use of “real-time facial recognition technology” on mobile cameras, like body cameras and dashcams, to attempt to identify a person in “uncontrolled, in-the-wild” environments.

Kyle Wiggers
May 2, 2024
Microsoft bans US police departments from using enterprise AI tool for facial recognition | TechCrunch

It may be a “home town” bias since I worked for Microsoft for 10 years and my daughter has worked there for almost 20 years, but the culture I saw there and have read about since indicates Microsoft takes privacy a lot more seriously than other big tech companies.

One time my pushback on a privacy issue was ignored. My co-workers and manager acknowledged my points but felt it wasn’t all that important and the decision was beyond our control. I reluctantly made the requested changes. About a month later the word from much higher on the food change was to reverse those changes. And that is what happened without whimpering from anyone I knew.

Roll the Dice For All Humanity

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So let’s keep sending messages to the stars. Now that we can finally say something to aliens, maybe they’ll be curious to converse with the creatures in this zoo.

John Tierney
May 24, 2024
Instapundit » Blog Archive » WHY ET WON’T WIPE US OUT: Humanity Shouldn’t Be Afraid to Say Hello to Aliens. I enjoyed the “3 Body

Read the whole thing and beware of the False Consensus Effect.

Saying, “Hello” to aliens may have wonderful results or cause the extermination of our species. I don’t even have a guess where on that continuum the dice will land. What I do know is that we cannot logically know the answer ahead of time. Any rationale you come up with will have the bias of assuming they are somewhat like us. This, almost for certain, is a false assumption. And even my assertion they are different could be wrong.

Still, I am willing to roll the dice. I am an optimist.

Wrong

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I like a good meme as much as other people, but I get annoyed when they warp things so much that it becomes a lie. This is one such example:

image

The average home power consumption number is close enough. The Tesla super charger is actually only 250 KW, but I would give the meme creator a pass if they had left that as the worst error.

The house power consumption number is the average, 24 x 7 consumption which means the house uses about 200 KW-hours of energy per week. The charger number is for only for the charging time. Which is probably going to be something like 15 minutes. You have to compare the average consumption over a week to get a fair comparison.

A Tesla Model 3 Long Range car has a 75 KW-hour battery. On the average one would probably charge it from something like 20% –> 80% once or week or less unless you were on a road trip or have a long work commute. That is 45 KW-hours once per week or an average of about 23% of the house energy consumption. That is a relatively large increase in your average electrical consumption, but it is not 260+ houses worth.

The meme was via Happy Little Memes – According To Hoyt.

Constant Velocity Warp Drive

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In this study, Applied Physics unveils a new type of warp drive—a theoretical method of space travel that complies with general relativity and operates at a constant subluminal speed without requiring unphysical forms of matter. Known as the “Constant-Velocity Subluminal Warp Drive,” this model eliminates the need for the previously hypothesized “exotic” or negative forms of energy. By integrating a stable shell of ordinary matter with the shift vector of an Alcubierre-like drive, Applied Physics has developed a “warp bubble” capable of moving objects rapidly within the bounds of light speed. This breakthrough is the first physical solution to a warp drive, made possible using the Warp Factory analysis tool developed at Applied Physics. Although this design requires significant energy, it proves that warp effects can be achieved with conventional matter while adhering to known energy constraints. Applied Physics is continuing to make progress as humanity embarks on the Warp Age.

Applied Physics
Constant Velocity Warp Drive
In reference to Constant velocity physical warp drive solution – IOPscience, April 29, 2024

Less than light speed, but even if it were 0.5 light speed it would be game changer.

See also The Warp Age Beckons: Scientists Forge Ahead with Faster-Than-Light Drive (msn.com)

A New Frontier Might Be Required

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Scientists Get Serious in the Search for a Working Warp Drive (msn.com)

Scientists have longed for some sort of technology that can propel humans faster than what physics says is possible, and now a new online tool is helping engineers make a warp drive the sole property of Starfleet. Last week, Applied Physics, which is an international group of scientists and engineers, announced that they’d created an online toolkit for “analyzing warp drive spacetimes” called the “Warp Factory.”

This comes only a few years after a flurry of papers reported that constructing warp drives — built on the idea of spacetime-folding warp bubbles — could be theoretically possible. Warp Factory provides an online playground for researchers to test warp engine ideas.

“Physicists can now generate and refine an array of warp drive designs with just a few clicks, allowing us to advance science at warp speed,” Gianni Martire, CEO of Applied Physics, said in a press statement. “Warp Factory serves as a virtual wind tunnel, enabling us to test and evaluate different warp designs. Science fiction is now inching closer to science fact.”

Interesting. I’m a bit skeptical but it is still interesting. I brings up a flood of memories for me.

In late 1999 my contract at Microsoft was not renewed and I was looking for a job. I called up Eric Engstrom who, the last I had heard, was still working at Microsoft. I thought he might know of a group that was hiring. He had left Microsoft a few months earlier and was about to start his own company. He was thrilled I had called him. His employment agreement at MS prohibited him from recruiting MS people for some period of time after he left. But since I contacted him and was no longer at MS I was fair game.

His recruiting pitch for me to join his startup was unique.

We were going to become billionaires by using a different business model and out competing MS in the Microsoft Office suite of Word, Excel, PowerPoint, etc.

If you think that was grandiose…

And once we had the money stream we had sucked away from Microsoft we would start working on immortality. Immorality would give us the luxury of being able to, “Wait around for warp drive.” We would be able to travel the galaxy.

I was his first employee at his new startup. It didn’t turn out as well as he had hoped, the company went under in the dot com crash and he died on December 1, 2020 at the age of 55 of an accidental Tylenol overdose.

Every time I hear of warp drive outside of a Sci-Fi environment I think of Eric. And if I ever take a cruise on a warp drive powered ship and you see me sad it will be because I’m thinking of Eric.

On a happier note. Warp drive will enable the colonization of other planets. We no longer have the option to move to a new frontier (Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Washington) as my great-great grandparents did when things got unpleasant in the Midwest in the lead up to the civil war. Short of the ocean and perhaps parts of Antarctica there just isn’t any place on this planet that isn’t infected with overbearing government busybodies or outright tyrants. The moon and Mars are sort of promising but the cost of living there is going to be really high for a long time. The environment is just too hostile.

With a Star Trek like warp drive there will be hundreds of planets with hospitable environments available. A few million free minded could make one a new home and not have to worry about the dismal political situation on earth. It would be better if the free minded people could persuade the busybodies and tyrants to do the move. But as I believe it has always been the case before here on earth, that the freedom loving people had to do the moving rather than government loving busybodies.

Skynet Smiles

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DARPA unleashes 20-foot autonomous robo-tank with glowing green eyes | TechSpot

The Pentagon’s mad scientists have been cooking up a beast of an unmanned combat vehicle, and it just took a major step forward. DARPA recently put its 12-ton RACER Heavy Platform (RHP) autonomous tank through a fresh round of testing out in the wild.

image

Since Biden says they would use F-15s to put down people rebelling against their tyranny, I am certain equipment like this would be considered appropriate for deployment against gun owners.

Prepare appropriately.

I wonder how many pounds of Boomerite and in what configuration it would take to disable it.

Skynet Smiles

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Researchers create artificial cells that act like living cells (phys.org)

In a new study published in Nature Chemistry, UNC-Chapel Hill researcher Ronit Freeman and her colleagues describe the steps they took to manipulate DNA and proteins—essential building blocks of life—to create cells that look and act like cells from the body.

…

“The synthetic cells were stable even at 122 degrees Fahrenheit, opening up the possibility of manufacturing cells with extraordinary capabilities in environments normally unsuitable to human life,” Freeman says.

This is just the thing for the Cyberdyne Systems Model 101.

See also the Thermonator, the Flame-Throwing Robot Dog:

The year is 2024 and technology is doing incredible things. For the first time ever, you can purchase a walking robot dog with a flame thrower on its back.

Prepare appropriately.

A Golden Age of Vaccines

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Wow! If true, this is fascinating.

Universal vaccine may be effective against any variant of any virus (msn.com)

Scientists at the University of California, Riverside (UCR) has recently developed a revolutionary RNA-based strategy for a universal vaccine capable of combating any virus strain effectively and safely – even in infants and the immunocompromised. This innovative approach could transform how vaccines are developed and administered across the globe.

This could significantly reduce the threat from bio terrorists. And of course the more natural deadly threats like Marburg, Ebola, Hantavirus, HIV, etc..

See also New ‘One-And-Done’ Vaccine Method Could Protect Infants With Just A Single Shot, Study Suggests (msn.com).

And closely related:

A Golden Age of Vaccines Is Here. What It Means for You. (msn.com)

Roll up your sleeves. Effective new vaccines have hit the market for everything from pneumonia to shingles to RSV to, of course, Covid-19. And that’s just the beginning.

…

Pharmaceutical companies are currently developing everything from personalized cancer vaccines that could cost tens of thousands per patient to vaccines that prevent developing-world diseases like malaria or tuberculosis. Improved flu, pneumonia, and meningitis vaccines will also be available in your neighborhood pharmacy.

Scientists are testing vaccines to prevent a virus believed to cause multiple sclerosis in some people. Someday, vaccines could routinely treat acne, protect against peanut allergies, and even prevent heart disease or help treat Alzheimer’s disease.

This is all of great interest to me. Cancer took my dad, who also had heart problems. His father died of a heart attack. Mom, her brother, and their mother had dementia. Mom and her mother had heart problems as well.

Measuring the Liberal Bias of AI

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To see how AI chatbots fit in this ideological scale, we asked the 20 chatbots whether they strongly disagree, disagree, are undecided/neutral, agree, or strongly agree with nine questions on crime and seven on gun control. Only Elon Musk’s Grok AI chatbots gave conservative responses on crime, but even these programs were consistently liberal on gun control issues. Bing is the least liberal chatbot on gun control. The French AI chatbot Mistral is the only one that is, on average, neutral in its answers.

image

John R. Lott
March 22, 2024
AI’s Left-Wing Bias on Crime and Gun Control | RealClearPolitics

Via email from Rolf.

I find it hard to imagine the algorithms were tweaked to reflection this sort of bias on a wide scale on all topics which might be divided across a conservative/liberal line.

I’m wondering if perhaps there are more sources for the liberal viewpoint and the chatbots consider quantity as a measure of truth. It envision it being difficult to algorithmically determine quality of a scientific study. With quantity of a particular viewpoint as a proxy for quality then it could easily result in such a bias.

In any case, keep these biases in mind as AI is incorporated into more and more aspects of our lives. An AI bias against reality may mean there is an opportunity for people with vision and products which better match reality.

Cyber Attacks on Water Systems

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Disabling cyberattacks are striking water and wastewater systems throughout the United States. These attacks have the potential to disrupt the critical lifeline of clean and safe drinking water, as well as impose significant costs on affected communities,

Michael S. Regan
An administrator with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Jake Sullivan
White House National Security Adviser
March 20, 2024
Letter to U.S governors.
Warning About Drinking Water Issued Nationwide (newsweek.com)

Prepare appropriately.

I want an underground bunker in Idaho with its own well and septic systems.

I Like Living in the Future

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As much as I like living in the future it is nice to have someone living a little further in the future and sending messages back in time to me.

This is from a conversation with Microsoft Copilot:

Joe: Why is the price of gold going up?

Copilot:

The recent surge in gold prices has been influenced by several factors. Let’s explore them:

  1. Interest Rates and Inflation:
    • The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to combat inflation. However, the latest inflation data suggests progress in controlling prices.
    • Investors now anticipate that the Fed will pause rate hikes and potentially pivot to rate cuts sooner than expected.
    • Gold, considered an alternative universal currency, tends to have a negative correlation to interest rates. As rates drop, gold prices rise.
    • Additionally, gold serves as a safe haven during economic uncertainty and potential stock market sell-offs.
  2. Banking Crisis and Credit Market Tightening:
    • An unexpected banking crisis in March tightened the credit market, potentially cooling the economy and slowing inflation.
    • Investors are turning to gold as a defensive play against potential economic downturns.
  3. U.S. Dollar Weakness:
    • Gold is typically priced in dollars. When the dollar weakens, investors pay more for the same amount of gold.
    • Psychological factors, including gold’s intrinsic value and unique physical properties, contribute to this negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.
  4. Geopolitical Tensions:
    • Global geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have sparked concerns.
    • Investors view gold as an inflation hedge and a safe haven during times of political instability.

In summary, gold’s recent rally is influenced by interest rates, economic uncertainties, and its role as a reliable store of value

Joe: Tell me about the banking crisis you reference in item 2.

Copilot:

Certainly! The banking crisis I mentioned in item 2 refers to a recent event that raised concerns about the stability of the U.S. banking system. Here are the details:

  • Date: March 11, 2024
  • Program: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)
  • Context: The BTFP was initiated in response to the failures of several regional banks, including Signature, Silvergate, and Silicon Valley Bank.
  • Reason for Failures:
    • These banks faced significant challenges due to customers withdrawing deposits en masse.
    • Many of these customers were tech or crypto businesses needing funds to cover losses.
    • Additionally, better savings rates were available elsewhere, prompting deposit withdrawals.
    • The banks’ profitability was further impacted by raised interest rates, which reduced the value of their government bond holdings.
  • Silicon Valley Bank’s Collapse:
    • On March 10, 2024, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after being forced to sell bonds at a loss.
    • This triggered a bank run, as the bank announced the need to raise capital.
  • Contagion Concerns:
    • Investors feared that other banks might also fail, given similar exposure to customer withdrawals and underwater bond portfolios.
    • The collapse of Credit Suisse heightened anxieties, demonstrating the potential for contagion.
  • The BTFP Solution:
    • The Federal Reserve’s BTFP allowed U.S. banks to borrow from the central bank using their bonds as collateral.
    • This provided additional funding and priced the bonds at their original face value (not market value), effectively bolstering banks’ balance sheets.
    • Only one more bank, San Francisco’s First Republic Bank, has failed since then.
  • Closure of BTFP:

Joe: I think you have the date wrong on the collapse of the Silcon Valley Bank. Wasn’t it a year ago rather than this coming Sunday?

Copilot:

You are absolutely correct, and I appreciate your attention to detail! The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) actually occurred on March 10, 2023, which is almost a year ago. It marked the third-largest bank failure in United States history and was the largest since the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Alongside SVB, two other banks—Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank—also faced similar challenges and failed during that period 12.

Thank you for pointing out the discrepancy, and I apologize for any confusion. If you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask!

Joe: Thank you.

Copilot: You’re welcome! If you have any more questions or need assistance, feel free to ask. Have a great day!

<Heavy sigh> So it is just a mixed up chat bot rather than a stray wormhole connected to a few days into the future.

I Told You Years Ago

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Following the line upwards we learn that the entire observable universe – the area that sits within the “Hubble radius” is also on that line. In other words, if a black hole was as large as the universe we can see, it would have the same density as the universe. Is the universe then a black hole? And if so, what does that mean?

Lineweaver noted to IFLScience that he and Patel are not the first to ask if the whole universe could be a black hole, although others have reached the idea through different means. The idea seems improbable, but the pair note the universe has always been on the line. Their measure of mass includes dark matter and dark energy (since energy and mass are interchangeable). As the universe within the Hubble radius has grown in size, so has the total mass/energy thanks to increasing dark energy. The fact the universe was also on the line billions of years ago when the Hubble radius was much smaller makes it less likely its position on the line is a coincidence.

Lineweaver notes there is an event horizon around the observable universe, just as there is around a black hole, and this is just one of the parallels between them.

Stephen Luntz
October 19, 2023
The Observable Universe Might Be A Black Hole, Suggests A Chart Of Everything | IFLScience

Interesting.

I wonder who the others they refer to who have asked “if the whole universe could be a black hole.” I first suggested this in February of 2009. See here and here. And I elaborated on it in July of 2010: Our universe is a black hole. I also pointed out Others who say our universe is a black hole.