Krugman Test

Quote of the Day

One shouldn’t exaggerate the economic fallout from this war. But it isn’t occurring in isolation: There are many stresses on our economy, and this could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back — a straw that becomes heavier the longer the war goes on. Furthermore, if Trump is this erratic now, what will he do as the midterms get even closer?

Paul Krugman
March 04, 2026
Reality Sets In on Trump’s New War – Paul Krugman

My general rule of thumb is if Krugman makes a prediction, then bet against whatever he said. Let this post be a marker to test my rule of thumb. I’ll add a post to go live in six months to see how his prediction turned out.

Great News

Via CCRKBA HAILS D.C. APPEALS COURT RULING STRIKING DISTRICT MAG BAN | Citizens Committee For The Right To Keep And Bear Arms:

Benson v US et al 23-CV-0541 FINAL.pdf

We reverse and vacate Benson’s convictions for possession of a “large capacity ammunition feeding device,” possession of an unregistered firearm, carrying a pistol without a license, and unlawful possession of ammunition.

One has to wonder if the anti-gunners will appeal this decision to SCOTUS as they did the Heller decision. It would make me laugh if they did.

This is great news in a number of ways. The obvious is the win for standard capacity magazines at the appeals court level. But an even bigger reason to celebrate is the circuit split it creates. This pretty much assures SCOTUS will accept an appeal from someone.

Persuasive Writing

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Scrolling through the internet, people remain really fucking stupid, are totally incapable of critical thinking, and they’re completely divorced from any sense of history.

So… Iran’s been fucking with us since I was born, has funded, trained, and enabled some of the most heinous assholes of the last several decades, destabilized an entire region of the Earth, and generally been total pricks.

Previous administrations going back to Jimmy Carter have had problems with the Iranians being total pricks who routinely do evil shit. Each of them did a little something, or nothing, or went full quisling sucked up and bribed them, but mostly they kicked the can down the road to be someone else’s problem for political expediency. Because due to the situation at those times there’d be no overthrowing the fanatics without getting into a protracted ground war that would result in lots of American casualties.

But today, due to a cascading series of current events, the situation has evolved and the American president most likely to say Fuck It YOLO, was presented the opportunity to dog walk this regime without invading. That hadn’t really been an option before.

This was all caused because one of Iran’s many proxy bands of terrorist dickheads flew their waxy terrorist wings too close to the sun and got their dicks blown off by pagers. As that escalated Iran decided to launch a shit ton of missiles which weren’t nearly as impressive as everyone was scared they would be, so then they lost a whole bunch of their leading boss assholes, and the whole world saw that Iranian air defenses were wishful thinking when some B2s buttfucked their impenetrable super bunker.

So then the populace of Iran got really uppity, because they’re sick of these religious fanatic death cultists too. Their asshole government then provided a demonstration of why we’re never ever giving up the 2nd Amendment here.

Except the FAFO president told them not to massacre all those people, and he was sick of their shit. This is the same guy who has made a rather impressive list of military operations that get in, fuck shit up, and then get out fast with minimal American casualties. This man is not George Bush. He does not have a Colin “You Break It You Buy It” Powell. Trump apparently does not seem to give a fuck about “nation building”, which works out because the American people do not want another twenty years of bullshit like Afghanistan or Iraq.

When given the opportunity to kill a ton of bad people, allowing the Iranian people to do the rest, and this opportunity has never come along before, of course Trump is going to go for it. And despite the screaming from the schizophrenic podcaster crowd of the griftosphere, most conservative Americans are very much of the attitude fuck Iran.

(of course libs are gonna lib, so get ready for a bunch of rainbow dipshits to march with Iranian flags next week)

Larry Correia
February 28, 2026
(20+) Larry Correia – Scrolling through the internet, people remain… | Facebook

Correia is an excellent writer and can be very persuasive. When confronted with someone with extraordinary persuasion skills I am immediately on guard. Is it reality they are explaining with exceptional clarity or are they selling a fiction?

After spending a fair about of time thinking about it, I’m inclined to believe Correia is correct as far as he goes. These clowns deserve every ton of high explosive persuasion they get.

I do have some concerns about what things are going to look like a year from now. Are the Iranian people going to be able to clean up the mess after the bombs and missiles stop raining? Will they try and then get machine gunned into hamburger as the military takes control? Will China see this as the most opportune time for “reunification”?

There are always tradeoffs and risk in whatever path chosen. I see the military action as morally justified. I don’t think it really should have been our responsibility to do it, but Israel couldn’t really do it on its own and no one else was stepping up to help them.

As is usual when violence is the correct course of action it is not a good thing. It is merely the least bad option available. I hope the U.S. made the correct tradeoffs.

The Dogs Not Barking

I do not have nearly the context and intel that people who study the Mid-East professionally do. I also do not have any contacts with recent intel in the area. It finally occurred to me that there is a public proxy of sorts that could give us a better-informed take on the situation.

As I cannot recall hearing condemation of the U.S. and Israel strikes by Iranian neighbors, I asked Grok this question:

Which, if any other than Iran, Middle East countries have spoken out against the U.S./Israel strikes against Iran?

This is the response:

Most Middle Eastern countries (particularly Gulf/Arab states) have not spoken out against the U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran. Instead, many have condemned Iran’s retaliatory attacks on their territories or U.S. interests there, often issuing joint statements emphasizing sovereignty violations and their right to self-defense.

Key examples from reports:

  • Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Oman (Gulf states plus Jordan) condemned Iran’s strikes on their soil or U.S. bases/assets in the region. They issued statements (sometimes joint with the U.S.) denouncing Iran’s actions as “reckless,” “indiscriminate,” and a threat to stability.
  • The Arab League (representing 22 nations) called Iran’s retaliatory attacks a “blatant violation of sovereignty” of peaceful countries.
  • Even Syria (historically an Iranian ally) condemned Iran in statements, amid its government’s shift toward better ties with the U.S. and Gulf states.

Some limited criticism of the U.S./Israeli strikes exists:

  • Lebanon’s Hezbollah (an Iranian proxy) condemned the U.S.-Israeli attacks as violations of international law.
  • The League of Arab States expressed “deep concern” over the broader situation and urged de-escalation, but this appears more balanced/general rather than direct condemnation of the initial strikes.
  • One report mentions a joint statement from 21 Arab and Muslim countries (led by Egypt) condemning Israel’s airstrikes on Iran and calling for de-escalation/nuclear disarmament without selectivity—but this contrasts with the broader pattern of Gulf states aligning against Iran’s retaliation.

Overall, no major Middle Eastern governments (beyond Iran itself) have prominently or consistently spoken out against the U.S./Israeli strikes. The dominant regional response has been silence on the initial strikes or criticism of Iran’s subsequent actions, with some Gulf frustration directed at the U.S. for perceived prioritization of Israel’s defense over theirs during the escalation.

Countries like Turkey, Iraq, Egypt, and others have not been prominently reported as condemning the U.S./Israeli actions in available sources—many stayed silent on the initial strikes or focused on condemning Iran’s follow-up attacks. Russia and China (non-Middle Eastern) have condemned the U.S./Israeli strikes.

This reminds “the dog that didn’t bark” clue from the Sherlock Holmes story, Silver Blaze. This tells me either these other countries are getting pressure from U.S./Israel to be supportive or be quiet, or they actually support the attacking of Iran. My guess is they support it or at least have mixed feelings about and are not actively opposed.

Good to know.

An Appropriate Conclusion

Quote of the Day

HAPPENING NOW! Israel bombed the building hosting the voting for the Iranian leadership succession AS THEY WERE VOTING! I guess that means they won’t be having any leadership for a while.

Who is the wise person who thought of all meeting in one place?

Houman David Hemmati, MD, PhD @houmanhemmati
Posted on X, March 3, 2026

If there were wise people in the group, they would not have a theocratic death cult for the leadership of a country. But the death cult getting put to death is appropriate conclusive end to situation. Will it be the end? Perhaps not. But it is going to make it more difficult to find hard line leadership. After all, how many levels of decapitation does it take before no one wants to be the head?

Via email from Paul K. who referenced BREAKING: Iran Supreme Council Bombed While Gathering to Choose New Leadership.

Which Way is the Wind Blowing?

From Eight Countries Have Now Joined the U.S.-Led War Effort Against Iran:

Iranian ballistic missile strikes have been responded to with intense missile defence operations by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which have employed their own air defence systems to protect U.S. bases and other targets from Iranian strikes, making them direct participants in the war effort. The possibility of Gulf states deploying their air forces, which include some of the region’s most sophisticated fighter types, to launch retaliatory strikes on Iran, has been speculated by analysts. Alongside the United States, Israel, and the five aforementioned Gulf states, the United Kingdom has also announced its participation in the war effort, with Defence Secretary John Healey referring to the Iranian government as “abhorrent,” in line with the broader consensus in the Western world regarding the need for attacks to ensure its destruction. Royal Air Force Eurofighters which were pre-positioned in Qatar in January are reported to have been scrambled to support air defence efforts.audi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

From Qatar downs two Iranian fighter jets as conflict widens | Israel-Iran conflict News | Al Jazeera:

The Qatari Defence Ministry said in a statement on Monday that the air force downed two SU-24 aircraft while seven ballistic missiles and five drones fired by Iran were also intercepted.

From British Royal Air Force F-35 stealth fighter jets just scored their first-ever combat kill:

British F-35s shot down drones over Jordan, marking the first time that one of the Royal Air Force’s stealth fighter jets has destroyed a target in combat, the UK defense ministry said on Tuesday.

British bases have also been hit in this conflict, in which the UK is not offensively involved.

Via Copilot:

Iran has retaliated not only against the U.S. and Israel but also against multiple Gulf nations, drawing them into active defensive combat roles. According to CNBC, Iran has launched strikes against several Gulf states as part of its response.

Countries now engaged in defensive or counter‑strike operations include:

  • Saudi Arabia — responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks.
  • United Arab Emirates — participating in defensive actions and regional coordination.
  • Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar — involved in defensive measures, airspace control, and regional security operations.

While some of these states frame their involvement as defensive only, the practical effect is active participation in the conflict.

Several European nations have mobilized forces in response to the widening conflict, particularly to protect Cyprus and maintain regional stability.

  • France — engaged in defensive operations and regional force mobilization.
  • Greece — participating in protective deployments around Cyprus.
  • United Kingdom — operating from its sovereign bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia, which have become strategically important staging points.

These countries are not leading offensive strikes on Iran but are actively involved in combat‑adjacent operations and regional defense.

Although politically complex, both Iraq and the Kurdistan Region appear on the list of belligerents aligned against Iran in the current conflict. Their involvement includes defensive actions, airspace control, and responses to Iranian‑aligned militias operating within their borders.

Jordan is participating in defensive operations, including intercepting Iranian projectiles and coordinating with U.S. and Gulf partners to maintain airspace security.

Via Grok:

Iran’s retaliation—via ballistic missiles, drones, and other projectiles—has targeted U.S. bases, Israeli territory, and sites in neighboring states. This has pulled several countries into active combat, primarily through defensive actions like intercepting incoming threats, but some have escalated to direct engagements:

  • Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait — These Gulf states host U.S. military bases and have actively used their air defense systems (including Patriot and THAAD) to intercept Iranian missiles and drones aimed at those installations and their own territory. Strikes have hit civilian and energy infrastructure in some cases (e.g., airports, ports, and high-rises), prompting strong condemnations and defensive operations. Reports indicate these nations are now direct participants in the war effort, with speculation about potential offensive contributions from their advanced air forces.
  • United Kingdom — Announced participation, with RAF Eurofighters (pre-positioned in Qatar) scrambled for air defense support against Iranian threats.
  • Jordan — Intercepted Iranian projectiles targeting its airspace or U.S. interests.
  • Qatar — Notably shot down Iranian Su-24 bombers, marking direct air-to-air combat.

Other nations like France, Greece, and Oman appear in defensive roles or have been affected, but their involvement is more limited or supportive.

The involvement of so many Middle Eastern countries being against Iran (note that I’m not saying they are pro American or Israel) makes me believe we will soon see more support from European politicians. Many people are easily driven by which way the wind is blowing. With the primary direction of the wind against Iran, more people will join in to be on “the winning side.”

The System Absorbed the Hit, Now What?

Quote of the Day

Khamenei is dead. Good.

But I have family in Iran. My dad is there right now. And I’m not celebrating yet. Here’s why.

Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment. Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don’t need orders from Tehran to act.

As you read this, there is already a new Supreme Leader. We just don’t know who.

This isn’t Maduro. The government didn’t get overthrown. The system absorbed the hit. That’s what it was designed to do.

Every credible intel assessment says the same thing: a post-Khamenei Iran is more likely to get harder, not softer. More IRGC. More dangerous. Potentially worse for the Iranian people than Khamenei himself.

Don’t breathe yet. There’s a long way to go.

Iman Jalali @Stealx
Posted on X, February 28, 2026

Yes, with a death cult in control of Iran and knowing they are in an existential fight they are unlikely to give up easily. But that is not all there is to this story.

With posts like this indicating internal support for crushing the Iranian theocracy, three Gulf states preparing for combat against Iran, and verbal support from France, Germany, and the U.K. it would seem that Iran will be inclined to fold more quickly than some had anticipated. If true it will also narrow the opportunity window and reduce U.S. military munitions drain. This is important if we are to have credible support for Taiwan against action by China.

It is Good to Have Clarity

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As an Islamic theocracy, Iran serves as a role model for the Islamic world. And as a role model, we cannot capitulate.

Hamid Reza Taraghi
February 28, 2026
Why Iran resists giving up its nuclear program, even as Trump threatens strikes

The sponsor of terrorist activities for many decades considers itself the role model for the Islamic world? And that is ignoring the whole theocracy thing, the treatment of women, death to Jews, taxing of non-believers, death to protesters, mistreatment of women, and forced sexual transitions (or death) to homosexuals.

If they really are considered a role model in the Islamic world then that does not bode well for a civil relationship between the non-Islamic world and Islam. That makes certain decisions much easier.

Thank you Taraghi. It is good to have clarity.

Holiday Attacks are Part of our Culture

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A number of calendar events could play a role in the timing of an attack. The Winter Olympics — traditionally a moment of global unity — conclude on Sunday; some European officials said they believed no strike would occur before then. Meanwhile, Ramadan began Wednesday; some officials from US allies in the Middle East — which have lobbied against an attack, fearing regional destabilization — said an attack during the Muslim holy month would convey American disrespect.

Kristen Holmes and Kevin Liptak
February 18, 2026
US military prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend, but Trump has yet to make a final call, sources say | CNN Politics

“… convey American disrespect”? I would have thought exploding 100 tons of bombs on their infrastructure would be considered “disrespectful” during any month.

And don’t forget this nation was forged by showing up in the camp of the British in middle of the night on Christmas and butchering them. I would say holiday attacks are part of our culture.

Translating the Iran Negotiation Request

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The swift expansion of US military forces in the Middle East has reached a stage where President Trump could authorize military strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, according to administration and Pentagon officials, The New York Times reported. The development presents the White House with critical decisions about whether to move forward with diplomatic efforts or shift toward armed conflict. There is no “confirmation” from Trump about how to proceed, but efforts to build a military force able to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile arsenal, and related launch sites have continued this week, even as second round of negotiations took place on Tuesday. During those talks, Iran requested two weeks to return with more detailed proposals aimed at reaching a diplomatic solution.

Express Global Desk
February 19, 2026
US-Iran Tensions Live Updates: Geneva Nuclear Talks, USA-Iran Tensions Trump & Khamenei Statements February 18 Latest News

Translation: Iran requested two weeks to prepare for the attack and a counter strike against the U.S. I could also see them using the time attempting to get commitments from Russia for assistance. After all, Iran has been supplying Russia with war materials for several years now. Isn’t it time for Russia to help them?

I’m glad my underground bunker in Idaho is habitable. It is not finished and it needs to be stocked, but it is a far better place to be than in the Puget Sound area in the case of things getting really spicy.

If only that were a Promise

Via Planet Of Memes @PlanetOfMemes

I know it would not be consistent with other memes with the same format, but if someone were to tell me this, my response would be, “Don’t make any promises you can’t keep.” Or perhaps, “Make it 90% and we have a deal.”

Lawful but Tragic

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The Renee Good case was clear-cut self-defense. Objectively, she hit the accelerator when her tires were pointed directly at the officer. If the officer had complete omnipotence he would still have been justified in using deadly force.

The Pretti case is different. It still looks like lawful self-defense, but in this case, if the officers were omnipotent, they would NOT have fired. But from the perception of the individual officer in the moment, all they know is that they are dealing with an agitator who has 1) aggressively confronted a federal law enforcement officer 2) unlawfully interfered in an arrest of a third party and 3) violently resisted arrest. And then the officer hears “gun gun gun.” We don’t know exactly what that officer was seeing at the time; maybe the body cam video will be probative, maybe not. But the officer is allowed to rely on the perceptions of his colleagues combined with his own, so if he heard “gun gun gun” and saw Pretti reach for his waist that’s a lawful shoot even if the officer was mistaken.

Will Chamberlain @willchamberlain
Posted on X, January 26, 2026

He meant “omniscient”, not “omnipotent”.

There is at least one video I have seen that appears to show the officer who took Petti’s gun had an AD with it as he was walking away. This, as you might expect, appears to have initiated the shooting of Petti.

If true, it will almost certainly result in it being a lawful, tragic shooting.

Deliberate Deception

Via The Redheaded libertarian @TRHLofficial, who wrote:

It appears MSNBC gave Alex Pretti a tan, a stronger jawline, better teeth, shorter forehead, and a nose job to make him look hotter for the AWFLs. They broadened his shoulders, thickened his neck, and gave him biceps.

Since they engaged in this deliberate deception you can be sure there are other deceptions in their reporting of their narrative.

Legacy Media Liars.

AI makes deception so much easier. The videos being produced are of amazing quality. Reality was already tough to discern. The current technology could make it nearly impossible to determine truth from falsity. It would require security certificates from source to viewer, a chain of custody, for recording devices with images and/or sound to come close having a chance of being actually true.

This is very scary stuff.

It’s Too Much to Expect People to be Responsible

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In every clip I’ve seen of Noem today, she’s saying something she can’t know or that is a lie. She also undercuts 2A to say carrying ammo is a problem on its face. I know it’s too much to expect people to be responsible, but this is opposite of a grown-up doing the job.

Mary Katherine Ham @mkhammer
Posted on X, January 24, 2026

It is way beyond having hope of most people to be responsible. Things are more chaotic than I think I have ever seen them. Emotions are running very high. Most people cannot even determine what is reality. Part of the problem is the media lies, selective reporting, and deliberate distortion. Part of it is that many people don’t even believe in the existence of an objective reality. And part of it is that reality is a really tough problem. We are left with people blinded by emotion, without knowledge of how to determine a reality they don’t even believe exists, with deliberate lies as the basis to make decisions on how to interact with the rest of the world.

The dollar is worth less than 1/5000th of an ounce of gold and will buy less than 1/100th of an ounce of silver. The nation debt is nearly $40 trillion.

I just want my underground bunker in Idaho to be finished and stocked before things go really sour.

How Do You Determine Truth from Falsity?

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A vast number of humans, probably a majority, aren’t people.

They are large language models.

I’m not saying this as a generality, as a clever or funny way of saying, “they are stupid”.

No. I mean something very concrete and specific, and there are a lot of people who appear very intelligent, maybe even win awards for writing good poetry or something, who are nevertheless not people, not fully sapient, just a large language model walking around in a human body.

First, you have to understand what a large language model is.

It’s a computer (organic or inorganic), which has been trained on a data set consisting solely of language (written or spoken), and rewarded for producing language that sounds like the data set, and is relevant to a prompt.

That’s all there is in there.

This is why ChatGPT and Grok lie to you constantly.

It’s not because they are somehow just indifferent to the truth — they actually do not understand the concept of “truth” at all.

For something to be a “lie”, or an “inaccuracy”, there has to be a mismatch between the meaning of words, and the state of reality.

And there’s the critical difference. You see, in order to identify a mismatch between the state of reality, and the meaning of a sentence, you have to have a model of reality.

Not just one model, of language.

This is why Grok and ChatGPT hallucinate and tell you lies. Because, for them, everything is language, and there is no reality.

So when I say someone is a large language model, I do not mean he is “stupid”. He might be very facile at processing language. He might, in fact, be eloquent enough to give great speeches, get elected president, win the Nobel Peace Prize, and so on.

What I mean is that humans who are large language models do not have a robust world-object model to counterweight their language model. They are able to manipulate symbols, sometimes adroitly, but they are on far shakier ground when trying imagine the objects those symbols represent.

Which brings us to this woman.

Most conservatives understand her behavior in terms of concepts like “suicidal empathy”, or “brainwashing”, or an “information bubble”, interpreted as reasons why she is delusional, but the truth is far worse than that.

To delusional is to have an object model of the world that is deeply and profoundly wrong. But to have an object model of the world that is deeply and profoundly wrong… you have to have one in the first place.

To sapient humans, words are symbols, grounded in object model of reality, that we use to communicate ideas about that reality. We need those words because we don’t come equipped with a hologram projector, or telepathic powers.

But for another type of human, that object model isn’t very large or robust at all. It consists only of a grass hut or two with a few sticks of furniture, and it can never be matched up with the palaces in the air which she weaves out of words.

And so, to her, there is no reality. Or at least very little.

Reality consists only of her and her immediate surroundings in time and space, and words referring to anything bigger or more complicated are not descriptions of reality… they are magic spells which will make other humans drop loot or give her social approval.

You cannot correct her worldview with contradictory evidence, because there is no worldview to correct.

You cannot confront her with the logical inconsistencies in her worldview, because her object model doesn’t actually have any, it’s not complex enough for that.

The relevant parts of her world-object model can be summed up as follows:

“If I say Goodthing, I get headpats and cookies from all the people like me.”

That model is simply not big or complicated enough to contain notions like self-defense or vehicular assault. She has no theory of mind for a man whose job includes violence. She cannot explain or predict his behavior.

It is too far away from her daily experience to fit into her reality at all.

And if she can’t imagine things like these, how can she possibly imagine concrete meanings for vast and complex ideas like demographic replacement, culture shift, and western civilization?

This is not about intelligence or lack of it. This is about what her brain is trained to do.

Her upbringing, education, and life did not force, or even encourage, her to develop a robust world-object model. It wasn’t necessary for her to get safety, approval, or cookies. She just had to be glib.

So it really didn’t matter if she had an IQ of 125, or whatever, because if she did, then she was just an IQ-125-large-language-model, and only used that brain capacity for writing clever poetry, and saying things that aligned her to her local social matrix.

She couldn’t actually understand the world no matter how smart she was, because her brain was trained up wrong.

I don’t know if this is correctable, or if there was some critical developmental phase that was missed, but it doesn’t matter, because once the LLM-humans are adults, they won’t sit still for corrective therapy, percussive or not.

What’s important is that they can’t be taught things. They can be programmed to repeat stuff, and if you win a culture war, you can even program them to say the sensible stuff. But even then, they will just be saying it for headpats and cookies. They will never truly understand the sense of what they are repeating, because they don’t understand things.

They are just Large Language Models.

And we have to figure out some way to take the vote away from them.

Devon Eriksen @Devon_Eriksen_
Posted on X, January 8, 2026

In case you can’t immediately make the connection, this is about Renee Good (Who was Renee Nicole Good, the woman killed by ICE?).

Wow! This is awesome. It is another model to incorporate into my understanding of people.

If you read about Ms. Good you will discover she was an award-winning poet, and an English major.

This reminds me of Peterson Syndrome.

They do not have a process for determining truth from falsity. When asked how they determine truth from falsity they look at you like that is a crazy question. They speak of “My truth”, and “My lived experience.” The concept of a court ruling on basis of the law instead of justice (of course it is their “justice”) is nonsensical to them. They cannot imagine why their opinion on an event they did not see is not just as valid as someone who studied multiple videos from various angles frame by frame.

It reminds me of someone who I once asked, “How do you determine truth from falsity?” Their answer, in all seriousness, was, “It depends on how I feel.”

I do not have a common basis in reality to functionally communicate with these people.

If You’ve Never Watched Socialism Destroy Everything Around You

Quote of the Day

I’m going to say this once, and I don’t care if it makes people uncomfortable.

If you have never lived in Venezuela
If you did not grow up there
If you did not watch your country collapse in real time
If you did not stand in food lines
If you did not watch your parents lose everything they built
If you did not have to leave your home with nothing

Then shut the fuck up.

You do not have an opinion.
Your opinion does not matter.
And you don’t get to lecture anyone about what’s happening there.

I’m Venezuelan.
I lived there most of my life until my early twenties.
I watched my country go from a functioning democracy to full blown socialism right in front of my eyes.

This is not politics to me.
This is trauma.

Before socialism, Venezuela was not perfect, but it worked.
There was trade.
There was money coming in.
There was investment from the US.
There were jobs.
There was food.
There was medicine.

My family had five businesses.
We had our home
We had investments.
We had a future.

Then the government started nationalizing everything.
Private companies were taken.
Foreign investors were pushed out.
Imports were blocked.
Price controls destroyed production.
Corruption exploded.

And everything died.

Not slowly.
Violently.

People didn’t suddenly become poor because of “capitalism” or “the US” or whatever bullshit slogan people like to repeat online.

They became poor because socialism destroyed incentives, destroyed production, destroyed trust, and destroyed hope.

People today in Venezuela are not debating ideology.
They are trying to survive.

They are trying to find food.
Trying to find medication.
Trying to keep their families alive.

So when I see people in the West posting from comfortable homes, full fridges, stable currencies, and safe streets talking about “imperialism” or “US bad” or “Trump this or that”

No.
It’s not complicated.
You’re just ignorant.

China is not rebuilding Venezuela.
Russia is not rebuilding Venezuela.
Cartels are not rebuilding Venezuela.

They are stealing.
They are extracting.
They are draining what’s left.

If the US comes in and reinvests
If refineries get rebuilt
If infrastructure gets restored
If imports open back up
If food, water, and medicine become accessible again
If people can work and earn with dignity

Then yes.
Let them take all the oil they want.

Because at least something gets built instead of destroyed.

This is something to celebrate.
Not because it’s perfect.
But because for the first time in a long time, there is hope.

Hope that families can eat.
Hope that people don’t have to flee their country.
Hope that Venezuela can function again.

If you’ve never lived through a country collapsing
If you’ve never watched socialism destroy everything around you
If you’ve never had to leave your home because staying meant starvation

Then again
Shut the fuck up.

This isn’t theory.
This isn’t politics.
This is lived experience.

Stephen Subero
Posted on Facebook, January 4, 2026

More food for thought on the topic.

Understanding of Current Events (Maybe)

In war, truth is the first casualty. Hence, it is going to be extremely difficult to know the truth of the current events in Iran and Venezuela. For now, I’m going with the content of these two videos as a first approximation of background material.

The Warmth Comes from the Fire of Gunpowder and/or Ovens

Quote of the Day

We will draw this city closer together. We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.

Zohran Mamdani
New York City Mayor
January 1, 2026
Bishop Barron rips Mamdani’s ‘warmth of collectivism’ remark: ‘For God’s sake’ | Fox News
Conservatives sound alarm over Zohran Mamdani’s ‘collectivism’ comment | Fox News

Spell checker wanted to correct Mamdani to “Madman”. I wonder if it there is some significance to that.

If you want an economic argument as to why Mamdani’s plans are a really, really, bad idea read The Road to Serfdom: Text and Documents-The Definitive Edition (The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, Volume 2): Hayek, F. A., Caldwell, Bruce, Caldwell, Bruce, Caldwell, Bruce: 9780226320557: Amazon.com: Books

If you want to read the detailed results of a real-world test case of this political philosophy read The Gulag Archipelago: An Experiment in Literary Investigation Complete 3 Volumes Collection (Volume 1, 2, 3): Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn: Amazon.com: Books.

I don’t want to read any more about it. I want my underground bunker in Idaho*.

If you follow the X post above, you will find the following means and many more:

The difference between the two:

Ricardo Gomes sums it up for me:


* The night of January 1st, 2026 was the first time I spend the night in my underground bunker in Idaho. It’s not really ready, but for this time of year, it is better than the camping trailer. While it will not be completed, I expect that within a month Barb and I would be comfortable here should the need occur. It is not a minute too soon.

Excellent Point

Via The Babylon Bee @TheBabylonBee:

If the whole situation were not such a tragic waste of money it would be funny.

My only hope is that the maximum amount of restitution is made by everyone criminally involved — down to the level of auctioning off all their salable body parts. An example needs to be made of these people which will be remembered for generations.

We Don’t Want to See That Happen

Quote of the Day

Things like this end up in third world wars. And I told that the other day, I said, ‘You know, everybody keeps playing games like this, you’ll end up in a third world war.’ And we don’t want to see that happen.

Donald Trump
U.S. President
December 26, 2025
Trump issues WWIII warning

I want my underground bunker in Idaho to be finished.