Election predictions

There is an election coming up, so I thought I’d update my
last prediction.

You can create your own scenario here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html

As I write this, at RealClear FL, NC, VA, CO, NV, IA, WI,
MI, OH, PA, and NH are considered “Toss-up”, and Obama has a solid 201 Electoral
College votes, Romney a solid 191.

I think that the polling data showing a MAJOR shift in party
self-identification from D to R (shifting from about a 5 point D advantage in
2008 to about a 2 point R advantage now), a shift in independent support toward
Romney now giving him a double-digit percentage lead (52% to 39%), greater R
enthusiasm / fear-of-consequences, and the persistently underwater job approval
numbers on Obama will all lead to Romney coming out ahead, beyond the
margin-of-fraud, in FL, NC, VA, CO, NH, and IA, for 267 (two shy of a tie). I think he’ll most likely
also take OH, WI, and NV, giving Romney 301 EC votes. That also means Romney could
afford to lose or have contested any one of those, even for FL, or Ohio AND Wisconsin,
and still have 270+.

If the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy suppresses voting in
Philly significantly, or the Benghazi thing blows up further in the DMC
(Democrat-Media-Complex, aka ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, etc), he may get PA and MI,
too, for 337 EC votes. I consider this only about one chance in five.

If Benghazi goes politically nuclear in the popular press,
and the political rights’ worst fears are realized and popularized prior to the
election (slim chance, but theoretically possible), then the O implosion loses
OR, MN, and ME2, because so many Dems stayed home rather than vote for their former
hero, giving Romney 355, almost as many as Obama did – which would also mean
that the Rs get a solid lead in the Senate, and keep the House. Maybe as much as a 5% chance, here.

If a lot of Dems stay home in disgust because of the national scene, then McKenna wins in WA state as Gov, but Cant(vote)Well will still win re-election in the Senate, because the R party can’t put forth any good candidates in WA, and the Libs in WA are still clueless as to the importance of senators and Cantwell’s ineffectiveness. If party “turnout” is normal, then it’s too close to call, but I’m afraid Insley will have enough friends counting votes that he’ll pull it out.

Pumpkins for Peterson

As per request from my previous post on this topic we now have video of the pumpkins we blew up for Joan Peterson, board member of the Brady Campaign:

Joan Peterson, and the entire Brady Campaign organization, should just get used to the idea that they cannot win this fight. We outnumber them by hundreds to one. We make people happy. They wallow in the pain, misery, and suffering of victims. We will spend hundreds of dollars, and countless hours mocking her and her kind.

You are on the wrong side of history Joan, give it up.

Priceless

Barron made another video for Brady Campaign board member Joan Peterson. Read his blog post for the complete story with this as the dessert. It’s dessert because it is sweet (even if Barb L. says it can’t be dessert because there is no chocolate):

I’m working on a video of my own from last weekend. It will have a different focus but it still should give Peterson heartburn. Some people don’t like just desserts.

Quote of the day—NYPD Officer

When I came into this police force I wanted to help people, but the civilian population, they’re being hunted. Instead of being protected by us they’re being hunted and we’re being hated.

NYPD Officer
On the Department’s Feudal “Stop and Frisk” Policy.
From 11:28 in the following video:

[H/T Tyler Durden and Michael Krieger.

Also of interest is, from 2:11, “I had this captain who walked into the precinct and gave a speech about harassing the public. His words were, ‘We’re going to go out there and were going to violate some rights’.”

The police should realize this will not be tolerated for long. If legal recourse fails to get them in compliance then they should expect ‘game on.’ With no rules.—Joe]

About voting fraud

Since the left is convinced that you cannot be trusted with a gun, cannot be trusted to educate your own kids, feed your own kids, feed yourself, deal directly with your medical care providers, chose the vehicle you want, run your own business without being told how to do it, hire the right people, chose your own light bulbs, chose the energy sources you want, or keep your own money, et al, why on Earth would it trust you to vote?  Why should it?


If the very future of the planet itself is in jeopardy, as is claimed, well then; the left would be “out of its mind” so to speak, to allow any election to go the wrong way if there were anything that could be done, by any means necessary, to fix it.


If we want to go further with this line of thought, we could make the same case.  If we’re headed for the cliff due to socialist creep, and there is very little time to make a correction, and since the constitution is no longer a functional barrier to socialist creep, since we’re now a de facto pure democracy seemingly bent on self destruction, then what are OUR options?


No; we don’t need election fraud.  The left needs it.  All we need is the truth, the light of day, and to find a way to begin restoring and enforcing the constitution.  We know that the Republican Party as constituted today will not do that, so we’ve refined the context of the question, but not answered it.  What are our options?


As little help as it may be, I can answer that in the negative; One option that we do NOT have is that of trying to make everyone like us.  We’ll have to tell it like it is, with malice toward none (and that’s a challenge, isn’t it?) and let the chips fall where they may.  Pandering and beating around the bush, being afraid of the bare truth, is what got us in this mess, and it is what defines the Republican Party today.

Quote of the day—Charles Woods

I want to honor my son, Ty Woods, who responded to the cries for help and voluntarily sacrificed his life to protect the lives of other Americans. In the last few days it has become public knowledge that within minutes of the first bullet being fired the White House knew these heroes would be slaughtered if immediate air support was denied. Apparently, C-130s were ready to respond immediately. In less than an hour, the perimeters could have been secured and American lives could have been saved. After seven hours fighting numerically superior forces, my son’s life was sacrificed because of the White House’s decision. This has nothing to do with politics, this has to do with integrity and honor. My son was a true American hero. We need more heroes today. My son showed moral courage. This is an opportunity for the person or persons who made the decision to sacrifice my son’s life to stand up.

Charles Woods
Father of Tyrone Woods one of the former Navy SEALs killed in the terrorist attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi.
October 25, 2012
Joe Biden to Father of Former Navy SEAL Killed in Benghazi: ‘Did Your Son Always Have Balls the Size of Cue Balls?’
[The entire attitude of this administration toward the family of the dead is extremely troubling.

That doesn’t even address what Hillary Clinton said. She said they would “make sure that the person who made that film is arrested and prosecuted.” Yet we now know the Whitehouse had a live video feed of the attack and could not have seriously believed it was a riot rather than a planned attacked with mortars. The wounds that killed the SEALs were from mortar shrapnel!

I’m reminded of a book I recently finished, How Do You Kill 11 Million People?: Why the Truth Matters More Than You Think.

Take your blood pressure medication then read the whole thing.—Joe]

Atlas Shrugged II

Barb L. and I saw the movie Atlas Shrugged II Tuesday night. There were only a few people in the theater. And after the movie I ended up spending a few minutes explaining bits of it to Barb and the three guys who sat behind us. None of them had read the book.

I liked the casting better than what they did for part 1. I liked that many scenes were essentially directly from the book. But I can see that it fails to get across the points essential to appreciating Rand’s message. And reading the book just doesn’t work for many people. I know several people that just couldn’t “get into it”. Whereas son James and I were spellbound by the book. It resonated with us like few books ever have.

Because the movie doesn’t resonate as well as I wish it did I almost think the movie would be better described as a documentary of our future with the script published in 1957. Judged from that standpoint it does amazingly well.

This is sad considering (from here) “Atlas Shrugged is the ‘second most influential book for Americans today’ after the Bible, according to a joint survey conducted by the Library of Congress and the Book of the Month Club.”

Overheard

Minor changes were made to give additional context.

B: I can’t keep my balance in them so you won’t ever find me wearing high heels.

Me: That’s fine with me. You are nearly 6′ 1″ in your bare feet. Why would I want you to wear high heels?

B: Okay. I’m just letting you know.

Me: Thanks. And I’m just letting you know you won’t ever find me wearing high heels either.

Random thought of the day

Another data point to indicate we are winning the gun owner rights battle is that in the 2000 election George Bush was saying, apparently reluctantly, he would sign a permanent ban on “assault weapons” if it was put on his desk and his opponent, Al Gore, wanted the AWB as well as restrictions and licensing of ordinary handguns.

In this election President Obama, apparently reluctantly, said he would like to see an AWB passed and his opponent, Mitt Romney says he doesn’t want any more restrictions on firearms.

Hence today we have the more repressive candidate for President of the United States taking the position of the least repressive candidate of 12 years ago.

Yes, I can see an analogy being made to dungeon prisoners celebrating their ration of gruel being increased by 10%. But it is a measurable improvement and the trend for the foreseeable future continues to be favorable.

Where is Billy Beck?

His site has been “suspended”.  Maybe I didn’t get the memo, but I’m instantly worried about him.  He’s not off in Beck’s Gulch is he?

The importance of judges

Sebastian reported a new gun blog and I poked around some. The author, Nicholas J. Johnson, is a Professor of Law specializing in firearm regulation. I found this post of his fascinating.

The following, in particular, caught my attention:

Both the majority and the dissent acknowledge that the AR-15 is a gun in common use. How they proceed from there is illuminating. The dissent treats common use as a solid liberty-protecting standard. Guns in common use cannot be banned.

For the majority, acknowledging the AR-15 as a gun in common use is just a rhetorical lead-in to the burgeoning two stage standard of review. The court found that the D.C. law did in fact burden a core Second Amendment concern. But at stage two it determined that the ban does not “substantially burden” the right to self-defense (people could still have handguns and many other long guns).

This reasoning is not derived from Heller and it is interesting to speculate what else would pass muster under this approach. Pushed hard, it would seem to allow very broad gun bans as long as some core self-defense guns remained legal.

In Heller it was said that guns “in common use” are protected from prohibition by the 2nd Amendment. But some judges are ignoring that. This is essentially a repeat of what happened in Miller where it was said that to be protected by the 2nd Amendment a gun had to “has some reasonable relationship to the preservation or efficiency of a well regulated militia.” Yet many courts ignored that statement and instead substituted a twisted version of the actual wording of the Miller decision and said the individual wanting to own or bear a firearm had to be in a militia.

Mike B., a lawyer friend of mine, once told me engineers make poor lawyers because they believe the law means what the law says and it doesn’t. The law actually means whatever the judges want it to mean. This is another data point supporting that claim. And this is another reason why getting people who follow the law as written as our judges is vital to the preservation of our rights.

Or perhaps expressed better is the comment to the post by Brett Bellmore (Oct 06, 2012 @ 09:13:19):

In the end, there’s no substitute for staffing the judiciary with people who aren’t hostile to this liberty. They have too many ways to destroy liberties they don’t like, to afford enemies there.

Keep that in mind each and every time you vote.

Quote of the day—Ride Fast

If Tamara shows up at a SnarkFest, we’re all out numbered.

Ride Fast
November 12, 2008
Comment to A job for the Queen of Snark.
[It wouldn’t just be “out numbered”. It would be “outgunned”, “outclassed”, and “out of our league” as well.—Joe]

Appeasement versus standing your ground

The buses that I have taken to and from work are generally, but not always, drama free. But at some of the bus stops I walk by in the Seattle area make me uncomfortable even when I’m fully tooled up for defensive action. That I frequently see small groups of cops hanging out at some of the stops only adds to my concerns about the frequency of drama at these locations.


The Seattle Police department reports some drama at a transit center that occurred Monday evening:



The 31-year-old suspect’s bout of bad behavior all started around 7:45 pm when he began harassing a woman sitting at a bus stop.


When another man at the bus stop tried to get the suspect to leave the woman alone, the suspect turned on the man and started following him through the Transit Center. The suspect then grabbed the man from behind, shoved him, and demanded money. The man then handed his wallet over to the suspect.


A second man saw the suspect robbing the first man, and stepped in to confront the suspect. The suspect then turned on the second man, punching him in the face and kicking him in the leg.


Already on quite a roll, the suspect then began harassing two other women at the transit center, offering them a graphic and unsolicited description of his genitalia.


Apparently appeasement doesn’t work all that well. If you are going to confront someone about their anti-social behavior it would appear you need to be able to stand your ground should the behavior escalate instead of subside.



As somewhat of a side note I find it interesting that I frequently get “a nod” from one or more of the cops at the bus stops. Sort of like an acknowledgement of “I recognize you as one of my kind” or “I recognize you as a good guy, carry on”. At least that is the way I interpret it.


On Monday evening a cop even stopped to chat with me while I was waiting at a bus stop. He asked about my Unorganized Militia Propaganda patch and what my opinion on open carry was. I told him I had a gun blog and that in most cases I regarded open carry as a political statement (the context is Washington State where concealed carry license are very easy to get) and it needed to be handled carefully. In some locations it was very helpful. In others it could be detrimental. He said he was all for people carrying guns and being able to defend themselves.

Shelley Rae: On Target with ESS Boomershoot Vol. 3

This is the third in the series of ESS Boomershoot videos. At about 1:30 in the video watch the trace from the bullet arc into the boomer for a detonation. Very cool.

From the YouTube page for this video:

Boomershoot: In the high Palouse of northern Idaho for one long weekend in April, the ground heaves with explosions and precision rifle and AR enthusiasts put their aim to the test.

That’s a good description. Perhaps “rumbles with explosions” or “vibrates with explosions” would be better than “heaves” but there is some ground heaving too.

There is also Volume 1 and Volume 2 in the series.

As I have said before ESS makes good stuff. They gave me a couple pair of their glasses and I use them whenever I need eye protection or even sunglasses.

Barron also has some comments on the video.

Quote of the day—Kris R

Of all the things I have been able to do while in the United States of America, celebrating Halloween by shooting a pumpkin filled with Joe’s special blend is one of the things I will treasure the most.

Kris R
October 23, 2012
Comment to I agree with Joan Peterson.
[It’s nice to have such an event be remembered so fondly.

I wonder if the anti-gun people get reports like that for their events. No, I don’t think so either.—Joe]

You think you’re a gunsmith?

THIS is a gunsmith.  Watch all of them.  There are a bunch of vids all in a row detailing the handcrafting of an American longrifle.  They hand hammer a barrel around a mandrel and hammer weld it.  Awesome.  No “machine tools” of any kind.  The closest to a machine tool is the barrel drilling jig, which is hand powered and hand fed, using hand-made cutting tools, and having a wooden spiral jig for determining the rifle twist.


Hat tip; castboolits.gunloads.com


We are extremely pampered today by comparison, having rolled bar and seamless tubing of precise alloy to work with.  I once “restored” (though the word is abused in this case) a hand-made, lavishly hand engraved and gold plated trumpet that was made in the very early 20th century– for its original owner, who was over 80 years old at the time.  He had bought it as a kid and played it the whole time.  All of the tubing was wrapped over mandrels and soldered, including the piston valves– every tubular part had a lengthwise seam therefore, and some of the silver solder had corroded out, resulting in leaks.  I had to re-solder some of them, but others were too far gone and I replaced them with extruded, seamless tubing.  The curved tubing was made back then by filling the straight pieces with lead and bending them  by hand over a bending jig, then hammering out any wrinkles.  Now they are bent using an ice composition and then hydro-formed in molds.  Some curved tubular parts are now built up entirely through electrolysis over investment cores.  And they didn’t use a buffing machine back then, but instead hand-burnished every square millimeter of the instrument prior to plating it– you could still see all the tiny facets on that trumpet– one for each stroke of the burnishing tool.  But that all that was still short of the skills used in rifle making in the 18th and early 19th centuries, and I didn’t do any engraving, carving or inletting in my instrument repair career.


An instrument (or rifle) with that sort of craftsmanship today would cost you well in excess of fifteen thousand dollars (you find fine rifles for well over a hundred thousand) though we can get good ones, made by modern methods, for under one thousand.  But no one makes musical instruments like that anymore, so far as I know.


When I first started in musical instrument work, the most expensive saxophone, the Selmer Mark VI, was under a thousand dollars, or right around a thousand, and it was imported from France, but the much simpler concert flute could be found costing several times that much, made in America.  You know why?


Because a flute can be made by hand in a person’s basement, whereas it takes a rather large shop, with a tons of specialized tooling, to make a saxophone, that’s why.  There were exquisite hand-made flutes, but no hand-made saxophones.  You can’t hand build a large-scale integrated microchip in your basement.  It may cost millions to set up for making them but you can buy one for a dollar.

I agree with Joan Peterson

It’s a rare thing but this time I (partially) agree with Joan Peterson on this issue (H/T to Sebastian). She says, “Don’t carve pumpkins with guns”.

I took two almost new shooters to Idaho this weekend to do a little pumpkin “carving” at the Boomershoot site.

First we prepared some chemicals:

IMG_2968_2012Web

Then we mixed them. Yes, she was a little apprehensive at first. This whole Kitchen Aid mixer making Boomerite is a little “different”. Six weeks ago had you told her she was going to be traveling to Idaho, making explosives to “carve” pumpkins, and shooting a rifle before Halloween she would have said, “No way!”

IMG_2964_2012Web

Here are some sample pictures of the pumpkins being “carved” (thanks to Barron for bringing them to the party):

IMG_3167_2012Web

The picture below was taken a fraction of a second after the picture above. Notice that the pumpkin pieces have slowed and are further from the origin. I wonder what the BC of a pumpkin seed is.
IMG_3168_2012Web
IMG_3244_2012Web
IMG_3259_2012Web
IMG_3213_2012Web
IMG_3279_2012Web
The picture above almost duplicates a picture Ry took a few years ago. Here is a cropped version of the same picture:
IMG_3279_2112WebCropped
IMG_3307_2012Web

There are hazards to pumpkin “carving” with Boomerite. Max wasn’t really “entertainingly close” by some peoples standards but it was close enough that he sometimes turned away to avoid getting hit in the face with pieces of pumpkin. I was extremely pleased that his finger came off the trigger and he kept the gun pointed in a safe direction:
IMG_3264_2012Web

I’m sure Ms. Peterson will be pleased to know we didn’t use guns as our primary tool for carving the pumpkins. It was just the remote detonator for the explosives. And these new shooters will share their experience and pictures with friends and family which will add to the set of people who recognize modern sporting rifles in common use are not “assault weapons” which should be banned. But instead many of them will desire their own and to share in the fun of the gun and Boomershoot culture. And what does Ms. Peterson and the Brady Campaign have to counter this?

Quote of the day—Ry Jones

Vultures gotta eat, too.

Ry Jones
October 18, 2012
Comment to Engaging in capitalism warrants death
[While this is true the situations where I advocate increasing their food supply are rare.—Joe]

Fish sticks and politics

I’m trying to clean out the freezer a bit, so the next thing
on the menu for the next few weeks is whatever seems to be on the bottom, back,
or mysteriously wrapped. Last night I pulled out a long package of freezer
paper, and we had cod for dinner tonight. Now, the kids don’t really like fish
(they keep telling us), but they like fish-sticks,
so any time we have fish, regardless of preparation method or species, it’s cut
into fairly regular sized things that could arguably be called “sticks,” and
voila! “Fish-sticks,” we tell them.

Not being inspired particularly by all the words on the
first few recipes I looked at, I did the classic “throw some stuff that seems right
together, and follows the spirit of how to cook that thing.” Beat up two eggs
with some salt and pepper to dredge them in before breading. Dump roughly equal
parts Panko bread crumbs, Progresso garlic seasoned crumbs (finished off both
packages) and corn meal together in a bowl for breading. Put on a frying pan
with a bunch (I’d guess nearly a cup) of left-over French-fry oil, which was
made of roughly equal parts canola oil, peanut oil, and bacon grease, with some
small amount of butter. (They were not really deep fried, but it was definitely
NOT the “minimal fat” version of frying.) Cut the cod fillets into roughly
equal hunks (er, I mean, “sticks”), egged, breaded, fried in hot mixed oil until brown and crispy in
the breading and not quite an easy flake in the meat, flip, fry until brown
& crispy on side #2, and the flake is more white than clear. VERY good. The
bacon grease in the oil really makes a huge difference, and starting with the
fillets only barely thawed (still a bit stiff) meant the outside got a hot
enough to brown without the inside getting overcooked and dry. Fish-sticks. No
matter what’s actually inside, they just need to look a certain way for the kids. In this case, what was inside was every bit as good as they appeared.

So, cooking for kids is sort of like politics.
For a lot of people, what is going on inside, the details, are not important.
Just the outside impressions and appearance is what the decision is based on. I’m
hoping when the kids grow up they really understand that cod, wild sockeye salmon,
halibut, trout, tilapia, farmed Atlantic salmon, and mackerel are really VERY
different fish. I’m also hoping that when they grow up and vote it’s not what
the politician LOOKS like or SOUNDS like that makes a difference, but what the
effects of their POLICIES are and HOW they will be enacted and enforced that is
important. Details matter. As a kid,
I don’t expect them to really know or care that much about the details of their
fish-sticks. As an adult, I DO. I suppose there are some obvious jokes to make
here WRT political parties, but I’ll refrain.

Social and Political Pandering

…or “Chum in the Water”


Most of us are familiar with the dangers of pandering to dictators bent on world domination, of the Legacy of Neville Chamberlain, and so on.  It’s very simple.  Show the enemy that you’re a chump, that it can control you, and you get pounced.


I think that Mitt Romney is probably a very nice guy, trying to do the right things.  Doing the right things, and getting people to like you, are however very different, often contradictory, goals.


When he decided he needed to hire him some womens (you know, so people couldn’t accuse him of not hiring enough women, because hiring based on a person’s potential value to the company without regard to sex or race, would be….stupid?  Unfair?  It wouldn’t please the communists?) he apparently failed to understand that he was throwing chum in the water.  Condition white.  Sharks cannot resist a little chum.  When the feeding frenzy erupted last week then, no one has any excuse for not having predicted it.  Sharks have a habit of acting like sharks.


HE HAS BINDERS FULL OF WOMEN!!!!  HE HAS BINDERS FULL OF WOMEN!!!!  (“What kind of pervert is this guy!?” they don’t say).  I wonder if he has (GASP) BINDERS FULL OF BLACK PEOPLE TOO!  Oh, the horror– someone trying to hire black people.  RACIST!!!  He wants to put y’all in BINDERS!


No, Grasshopper; don’t pander to insanity.  That way insanity will have nothing on you.  You pander to it and it gets encouraged.  Evil will try to nudge you into doing stupid things.  You’ll want to do them to make it happy, to get along, to take some weight off your shoulders, but it’s always a trick.


So I’m making fun of the evil-crazy, right back, but the important thing is to be able to see it and watch it.  It can’t stand the light of day.