From xkcd, of course. The title is “Conditional Risk” which is a morphing of “Conditional Probability” into the current situation.
I love watching lightening storms. But the most adventuresome I get while doing that is setting on my front step.
Author Archives: Joe
Quote of the day—NRA-ILA
Henigan may be confused about American history, since no one of his political orientation traces his lineage back to anyone associated with the founding of this country. But when it comes to losers, Henigan ought to know better than most. In District of Columbia v. Heller (2008), the Supreme Court put his two theories about the Second Amendment–that it protected a right of a state to have a militia, or that it protected a right of a person to be armed in a state militia–in the “recycling bin” and clicked on “empty.”
NRA-ILA
September 17, 2010
Don’t File Those Fingernails, Boys
[That isn’t the only thing Half-Truth Henigan is “confused” about.—Joe]
I think I have some work to do
It is claimed that women who marry young become more in touch with their needs as they get older. Typically this awareness occurs by about age 30. Those needs are:
- Feel special and appreciated
- Feel a deep emotional connection
- Feel feminine, beautiful, and sexy
- Get hot passionate sex
If they don’t get all of their needs met with their husband they will get those particular needs met with someone else.
Barb and I were married fairly young. Perhaps I should work harder on some of those items before she reaches 30.
Fun with statistics
I can’t say why I needed to know but lets just say I have been a little distracted recently as I have been working on a problem. It turns out I could map my problem into the German tank problem.
I had actually kind of pulled an equation out of the air and proclaimed (to myself), “this looks and feels right”. But I needed something more than my gut telling me that. It turns out for a uniform distribution (which, for the most part, my problem is) the best estimate of the true population size based on a limited sample of the population numbers is:
N = m + m/k – 1
Where ‘N’ is the population estimate, ‘m’ is the largest serial number of the samples you have and ‘k’ is the number of samples you have.
This could be used, presuming the serial numbers are sequential, to estimate the number of iPhones or Androids sold. This is far, far, from my application but still a fun application of statistics.
In my application I could substitute in an expression for ‘m’ which made my problem identical to the German tank problem. After rearranging the resulting equation I came up with the exact equation I had, essentially, pulled out of the air!
I’m still marveling at the implications of that result. In a few days I have a meeting with people who may or may not be thrilled to know that much of the work they have done for the past couple of years is bogus and that I have the solution to make it all better.
Been there, saw that
As Caleb suggests, I recognize the airplane in the following video. This is my first post with pictures of the plane. And here are some more I took of that same plane:
And being the nit-picky engineer that I am I would like to point out that not only were there no flashing lights in the cockpit, there were no lights.
Obama popularity still high
Via Roberta I discovered Obama’s popularity is still quite high—in China.
Click on the first picture to see the text “The revolution isn’t success comrades, we must continue to be studious.”
In that last picture I had to look up “RMB”. It refers to the Chinese currency.
I find it “interesting” that under the Obama administration many Chinese believe U.S.A. stands for “United Socialists All”.
Obama and his friends should be aware there are such things as counter-revolutionaries. And the body counts (via Alan) might end up a little different if the gulags, famine, and torture start being implemented in this country.
I know that the members of the Gun Club at Microsoft picked up over 100,000 rounds of ammunition just yesterday. And how many of those rounds do you think went to capitalistic freedom loving people? And I wonder how many the Socialists at Microsoft picked up.
I would like for the Socialists to do the math before they engage in a purge. Math lessons can be “difficult”.
Quote of the day—Say Uncle
Blacks should have been disarmed for their own good.
Say Uncle
September 17, 2010
Still racist after all these years
[[sarcasm]And women—women should be disarmed for their own good too. We can’t let those uppity blacks OR women have guns. We need to keep them in their place so we can keep them safe.[/sarcasm]—Joe]
Quote of the day—Marcus Porcius Cato (The Elder)
Those who steal from private individuals spend their lives in stocks and chains; those who steal from the public treasure go dressed in gold and purple.
Marcus Porcius Cato (The Elder)
Roman statesman (234-149 B.C.)
From The Great Thoughts (link is to the 2nd Edition, mine is the 1st Edition–1985)
[At least this part of politics has not changed much in the last 2200 years or so.—Joe]
Open house NRA-ILA event
Via email from the Apex of the Triangle of Death:
Alright guys, just got confirmation from Wholesale Sports Outdoor Outfitters in Federal Way that we are cleared to run another open house up there this weekend. Our hours are going to be Saturday from 9-8 and Sunday from 10-6; if you’re free to help out recruit volunteers and get the word out, please let me know by replying to this email! Also, feel free to tell friends and anyone you know to stop by on Sat-Sun; feel free to post this to forums, blogs, wherever you like.
Let me know if you’re free to help, even if it’s just for an hour!
Regards,
Caleb N Giddings
NRA ILA Campaign Field Rep
317-445-9332
Federal Way is a few miles south of Seattle and north of Tacoma. The address of Wholesale Sports 1405 S 348th St, Federal Way.
Update: As noted in the comments, Federal Way is a city, not a street. Outsiders might be confused by that name. Other common confusions of outsiders exist over the pronunciation of several of the local cities rivers and mountains. All this is provides a great deal of amusement for the locals. Locations of particular note include Issaquah, Nisqually, Puyallup, and Snohomish (not to be confused with Sammamish or Stillaguamish).
Not planned for Boomershoot any time soon
Via Mad Rocket Scientist I found some pictures of much more awesome fireballs than what we do at Boomershoot.
Although we have no plans for anything like that in the immediate future I really haven’t looked into it that much. There are certain regulatory hurdles that appear to be sufficiently high that it makes compliance unlikely in the near future.
We would need to use a different range and I suspect the entry fee would have to be prohibitively high too. All and all it just doesn’t seem like its going to happen any time soon no matter how cool it would be.
Quote of the day—Paxton Quigley
I once went to Paulden, Arizona, where you can “open carry.” You could go to the market, or gas up, wearing your holster. It felt like the good old Wild West. It was kind of a neat feeling.
Paxton Quigley
September 2010
Do Girls Need Guns?
[Link via Say Uncle.
I remember the first time I openly carried in a restaurant. It was a neat feeling. Kind of like the first time I went skinny dipping. A very free and natural feeling.—Joe]
Quote of the day—Thomas Jefferson
Perhaps an editor might begin a reformation in some such way as this. Divide his paper into four chapters, heading the 1st, Truths. 2d, Probabilities. 3d Possibilities. 4th, Lies. The first chapter would be very short.
Thomas Jefferson
June 11, 1807
To John Norvell.
From The Great Thoughts (link is to the 2nd Edition, mine is the 1st Edition–1985)
[In regards to the truthfulness of the mass media not a lot has changed in the last 200 years. But what has changed is the ability of people to easily invalidate such news sources and render them far less powerful than what they once were.—Joe]
Brady Campaign intern duties
I have more information on the duties of the intern the Brady Campaign would like to have work for them for free:
Description of Internship
Interns with the Research Department choose a specific research project to complete during the course of the internship in addition to pitching in on administrative tasks related to research, public affairs, or fundraising.
The following are examples of research projects currently on our docket, and new research projects come up all the time:
Short reports (2-3 pages) that are part of our “Gun Laws Work” series, e. g. explaining the success of gun control laws in California, New York City, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada.
Fact sheet summarizing the research on the lethality of guns relative to other weapons and suicide methods
Fact sheet summarizing the research on the offensive vs. defensive use of guns
Updating and expanding the data for our God Bless America poster comparing gun homicide counts and rates for the U. S. and other countries.
Since I know people from the Brady Campaign frequently read my blog I would like to suggest they also have the intern explain why gun and ammunition sales are way, WAY up, gun bans are being struck down, more people are carrying guns in public and yet the crime rate keeps dropping.
If that task is too tough perhaps they could do a little warm up exercise by defining the universe and give three examples and defend the claim that double entry bookkeeping is a bad idea.
Back when I was a boy growing up on the farm
Via an email from Ry I just watched a video made up of clips from a farm on the Palouse (this particular farm was near Colton Washington) in the late 1940s.
I grew up about 40 miles directly east of there. Many of the pieces of equipment were very similar to what we had on the farm about 10 years later. We still have the old pull type combine parked behind the barn. Ours was a John-Deere model 35 instead of the one with the red paint on it. I still remember riding on it. And the D-4 Caterpillar tractor we used to pull it is still in use today. It was nearly identical to the one shown in the video at the time of the pull combine days. It the mid 1960s Dad put on a bigger fuel tank, a wider seat, and the dozer blade. We still use it several times a year even though it is coming up on 70 years old. I use it to move dirt for the Boomershoot site and my brothers use it for other things as well such as clearing snow out of the driveway during the winter. During harvest the tracks would become so clean and polished by the grain stubble that you could barely look at them if the sun was shining.
We even had an old Willy’s Jeep similar to the one in the video.
Mom and Dad have some old video of some of their farming too. We used to watch the videos once or twice a year when we were growing up. I should get that digitized before it falls apart.
Quote of the day—wheresjack
There are only two reasons to own a hand gun, one is to shoot at a target and the other is to shoot at a person. The Liberal Party is committed to banning hand guns in Canada and I will make sure they stick to that commitment. For the target shooters that are serious about owning a hand gun, I will ask for legislation that permits ownership under strict guidelines and keeps the guns under lock and key at the accredited range of their choice. Transporting the gun would require a security service to take it from one approved location to another.
wheresjack
September 14, 2010
Where’s Jack on Gun Control?
[Wrong! Those aren’t the only reasons. And even if it were true what’s the problem? Sometimes some people need to be shot. That is the reason the police carry their guns. I carry a gun with me because I can’t carry a policeman.
The right to keep and bear arms is a basic human right. Any person, any political party, or any government opposed to such a basic human right cannot be trusted in a position of power and should be forever banned from positions of public trust if not jailed. We need to put pressure on these admitted violators of human rights in other countries.—Joe]
Another bigotry example
Suppose the law said companies were not allowed discriminate in their hiring or firing based on the prospective employee being in an interracial marriage. But then fires someone because, while on company business, gives their spouse of a different race a quick hug. The company claims they are not violating the law because the law doesn’t cover public displays of interracial affection while on company business. The public outcry would be, and justifiably so, huge.
There should be a similar public outcry in this case as well:
A metro Atlanta woman is asking a judge to strike down a Gwinnett County company’s gun policy.
Jamie Lunsford said the company violated her rights by firing her after they discovered she had a gun in her car while on business. Lunsford said the company violated her right to carry a permitted, concealed weapon in her car.
Her employer was a subsidiary of Iron Mountain, Inc. They are based in Boston Massachusetts. That might explain their anti-gun bigotry. Just as if the rules 70 years ago of a company based in Jackson Mississippi would reflect on their attitudes toward interracial marriage.
I understand the property rights argument and the right of the employer to set the terms of employment. You will notice I didn’t say the courts should force her former employer to rehire her. But I do think the public should let them know they don’t care for their bigotry and address this injustice via complaints and boycotts. Bigotry should not go unnoticed or tolerated even if it is, and should be, legal.
Yellow cake uranium from Iraq
This isn’t current news in any way shape or form. I just want it documented for my easy reference. I thought I had but I can’t find it.
I keep running into people that claim “there were no WMD found in Iraq”. Well, maybe in some strict sense that is true. The chemical weapons had already been used on his own people with the remainder smuggled to Syria prior to the 2003 invasion. And the yellow cake uranium was already known from the U.N. inspectors before the invasion.
Yellow cake uranium? Isn’t that what everyone said Bush lied about? There couldn’t have been any of that found or it would have been big news that all those people that said Bush lied would have been wrong!
But yes, there was yellow cake uranium found in Iraq. Some news media did report on it but it didn’t get wide circulation. It made the news when Canada bought it and it was all safely out of Iraq in July of 2008.
Here are some details from the AP:
The last major remnant of Saddam Hussein’s nuclear program — a huge stockpile of concentrated natural uranium — reached a Canadian port Saturday to complete a secret U.S. operation that included a two-week airlift from Baghdad and a ship voyage crossing two oceans.
The removal of 550 metric tons of “yellowcake” — the seed material for higher-grade nuclear enrichment — was a significant step toward closing the books on Saddam’s nuclear legacy.
550 metric tons isn’t just some samples for experiments at your local nuclear physics classes. It’s many, many nuclear bombs worth of material.
Here’s a story you may have missed over the long holiday weekend: 550 metric tons of yellowcake uranium worth tens of millions of dollars were shipped out of Iraq to Canada. The material was transported in 37 military flights in 3,500 secure barrels, according to the Associated Press.
There hasn’t been much of a fuss about this material because it had been discovered already by United Nations inspectors after the first Gulf War. But it took a second American war in Iraq to move the material out of the Middle East. For all the talk about America’s failure to discover Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, this is a big deal. We’ve reported on claims by top Israeli officials speaking on the record that Iraq smuggled its chemical weapons to Syria before America invaded in 2003.
The uranium issue is not a trivial one, because Iraq, sitting on vast oil reserves, has no peaceful need for nuclear power. Saddam Hussein had already invaded Kuwait, launched missiles into Israeli cities, and harbored a terrorist group, the PKK, hostile to America’s NATO ally, Turkey. To leave this nuclear material sitting around the Middle East in the hands of Saddam and the same corrupt United Nations that failed to stop the genocide in Darfur and was guilty of the oil-for-food scandal would have been too big a risk.
The United States secretly shipped out of Iraq more than 500 tons of low-grade uranium dating back to the Saddam Hussein era, the Pentagon said Monday.
The U.S. military spent $70 million ensuring the safe transportation of 550 metric tons of the uranium from Iraq to Canada, said Pentagon spokesman Brian Whitman.
The shipment, which until recently was kept secret, involved a U.S. truck convoy, 37 cargo flights out of Baghdad to a transitional location, and then a transoceanic voyage on board a U.S.-government-owned ship designed to carry troops to a war zone, he said.
Think about that the next time someone says, “What WMDs?” Or they say, “What media bias?”
We win because they screw up
Sebastian pointed me to this article by Brian Doherty who quotes Alan Gottlieb:
The invalidation of handgun bans throughout the country, accomplished in the space of two years, was sudden and surprising even to those who have spent decades laying the groundwork. Take Alan Gottlieb, founder and president of the Second Amendment Foundation, which began backing Gura’s various gun lawsuits after Heller. Since founding the SAF in 1974, Gottlieb has been hosting academic conferences, supporting legal scholars and historians, and filing carefully targeted lawsuits in defense of gun rights. Still, he says, “six years ago if you had said [the gun rights community would] see two cases get to the Supreme Court and two victories, I would have said, ‘Not in my lifetime. Maybe in someone else’s.’ ”
Gottlieb attributes the rapid turnaround in part to the brazen overconfidence of gun controllers. If Washington, D.C., had not challenged the March 2007 appeals court decision overturning its highly restrictive gun ban, the Supreme Court would not have had the opportunity to declare in Heller that the Second Amendment guarantees an individual right to arms. If Chicago had not insisted on maintaining its gun ban after the Heller decision, there would have been no McDonald, and the question of whether the Second Amendment binds states and cities would have remained unsettled. “We needed a little luck, and the other side gave us that luck,” says Gottlieb. “Our opponents are our biggest supporters.”
I had a long talk with Alan last November where he said essentially the same thing. My notes on that part of the conversation are:
We win because the other side screws up. All the big wins such as the 1997 I-676 in Washington state, Heller in D.C, and McDonald in Chicago could have been avoided if the other side “had been smart”. As soon as D.C. lost at the appeals court level they could have made a minor tweak in the law and we would have had to start over at ground zero and it would have decades, if ever because the court would have been stacked differently, before we could get it to the SC. Same thing in Chicago. I asked, “Do you really think they are stupid? If not then why are they screwing up?” “No. They aren’t really stupid”, he said. They have “true believers” who see things in black and white. He didn’t say it but I immediately thought of GOA on our side. “Politics is the art of the possible. Not the perfect”, he said. They haven’t been playing the game that way and they have been losing because of it. I didn’t ask but have been thinking that perhaps there is some way we can encourage them to keep screwing up.
Think about that.
They screw up and we win.
There are two lessons there. One is we need to encourage them to keep screwing up. And the other lesson is that we can screw up and lose. We can have too much overconfidence. We can be too aggressive. We can go for it all and they can win.
It’s sarcasm, right?
It has to be sarcasm:
If you teabaggers don’t like the president, you can always leave
America voted for socialism and if you hate big government, you hate America. Teaching kids about homosexuality, taxing the rich, abortion and gun control are American values now, if you don’t like it, fuck off. Redneck scum that you are.
At least Marxism and Nazism were beautiful.
Sure, lots of people think that. But they wouldn’t come out and say it. Would they?
Quote of the day—Beverly Ackerman
So that’s my response to the Dawson killings: No more guns. It’s as simple as that. Because no one can accurately predict who among us will become unhinged enough to explode in bloody slaughter, I believe that guns should be unavailable to the public.
Beverly Ackerman
September 13, 2010
The solution is simple: Canada needs MORE gun controls
[Using the same logic we can also demand guns be unavailable to the government. And of course pointy sticks and rocks should be unavailable to all as well. After all, no matter how much ammo you can carry you still run out of ammo eventually. But your pointy stick and rock never need to be reloaded. Think of them as infinite capacity assault weapons and you’ll understand just how dangerous they really are.—Joe]