Quote of the Day
Today the European Parliament voted 418-218 to pass the strictest migration law in EU history.
When the result was announced, MEPs started chanting.
“Send them back.”
Inside the parliament chamber. On the floor. In 2026.
Here’s what the law actually does:
— Deportation orders now apply across all EU member states. You can’t evade removal by crossing a border.
— Detention before deportation extended from 6 months to 30 months. Unlimited for security threats.
— “Return hubs” in third countries. Migrants can be transferred outside the EU while awaiting deportation — including families with children.
— Automatic deportation stays while appeals are pending? Gone. Courts decide case by case.
— Entry bans double from 5 to 10 years. Lifetime bans for security risks.
Currently only about 20% of people ordered deported from the EU actually leave.
For years European leaders told voters that open borders and mass migration were non-negotiable — that wanting enforcement meant you were a fascist.
418 Members of the European Parliament just disagreed.
Trump proved his immigration policies were popular enough to win elections.
After a wave of right-wing electoral gains across the continent, Europe is following in his footsteps.
And the Overton Window is getting kicked off its hinges.
KanekoaTheGreat @KanekoaTheGreat
Posted on X, June 17, 2026
Via a repost on X from Sarah A. Hoyt (@SarahAHoyt).
See also EU Parliament approves ‘strictest-ever’ migration law | Euronews.
Please consider this post as your reading assignment before doing your homework which will be assigned in my next blog post.
It has been quite a while since I have seen a window with hinges so that last line jarred me more than the news of the change in EU immigration policy. But never mind that. I’ll bet the EU changing their direction on immigration so decisively is unbelievable to many or even most people. I don’t know how many times I have heard predictions of “the end of western civilization”, “Europe will be a Muslim majority in a generation”, etc. etc. I thought that was far from certain.
Just like with bit coin it is difficult for people to imagine a dramatic change in things. If people think about things hard enough, they can do linear extrapolation. Non-linear extrapolation is much, much harder. I have probably talked about Bitcoin and gotten enough confirmation that most everyone here can probably envisioning Bitcoin having a dramatic crash. And people enough examples of hyperinflation or seen 100 trillion Dollar bills to have at least a glimmer of the possibility of it happening in this country.
But when you live in an information bubble that does not give you repeated samples of a future dramatically different from your current reality it is tough to believe a future dramatically different from your current reality. This is why TDS is so common. With their information environment blocking a connection with the alternate reality of people not believing Trump was a fascist, or even Hitler reincarnated, they could not image a world where he could win the election. Yet he won not only once, but twice (and perhaps three times) and most recently with a majority of all voters. This event is so far outside of their belief system that there was actually a club of people believing they all woke up “in the wrong timeline” at 4:00 AM on November 6, 2024.
A similar thing is probably happening now, not only to those who wanted the mass immigration to the EU to continue, but also to people in the U.S. who invested in the belief that downfall of western civilization was a certainity.
The pessimists predicting the end of Western civilization within a generation may still be correct, but the odds are much, much lower. My model of Europeans is they are much more likely to behave like, appropriately, European Starlings. They can rapidly turn and go in another direction without apparent communication and leadership. The people of the U.S., particularly libertarian leaning people, are more like a herd of cats. Extrapolation of behavior for either is a fool’s errand. I view the European/socialist population as being strongly adhering to group consensus. Once a certain critical mass is reached nearly everyone changes direction without feeling any cognitive distress. This enabled the non-linear change in political direction you see in the EU immigration vote.
When I was doing some research for this post Grok made some suggestions which I think are valid:
Potential refinements/additions:
- Acknowledge where pessimists had a point (for credibility/balance): Real non-linear risks existed—parallel societies, grooming scandals, terror incidents, welfare strain, and trust erosion (Putnam-style diversity effects). Some demographic projections still show cultural strain in Western Europe if inflows aren’t controlled. The starling shift might be happening because the warnings highlighted genuine problems before total breakdown. This strengthens your “odds much lower now” claim without dismissing concerns.
- Non-linear examples in Europe: Add concrete ones like the rapid post-2015 backlash building to 2024-2025 elections, or fertility convergence (second-gen Muslim rates dropping toward native lows). Hyperbolic predictions (e.g., Muslims majority by 2050) ignored assimilation, intermarriage, secularization, and policy change.
- US contrast: Your “herd of cats” libertarian-leaning view fits—more decentralized, individualistic resistance (e.g., state-level policies, cultural pushback). But note American immigration debates also show shifts (border enforcement focus post-2024).
- Psychology tie-in: Expand slightly on why bubbles make non-linear futures hard—availability heuristic (vivid collapse stories or success stories dominate), motivated skepticism, and belief perseverance. The 4 AM Club shows how emotionally invested worldviews resist falsification.
Possible counter/disagreement for depth: Europeans aren’t always seamless starlings—see persistent divides in France (banlieues), persistent no-go issues, or populist fragmentation. Consensus can shift toward worse outcomes too (historical examples abound). Americans might herd better on existential threats than cats imply. Overall, your optimism about adaptability seems warranted given recent trends, but history shows civilizations can decline nonlinearly if elites double down too long.
“It has been quite a while since I have seen a window with hinges so that last line jarred me”
Shutters on windows (instead of glass) is quite historically the norm. Even in the more modern era (with glass), windows that open via hinges are not rare (the “lean out” kind were very common for quite a while).
What’s far more jarring is using the “window” metaphor literally as if the Overton “window” were something to look through instead of the, what “second order” metaphor or something, related to statistics. That’s not the kind of “window” that’s even being discussed.
“I view the European/socialist population as being strongly adhering to group consensus. Once a certain critical mass is reached nearly everyone changes direction without feeling any cognitive distress.”
I think this is the part that I personally have the most trouble with. Nothing has changed, in terms of facts or arguments, yet all of a sudden, BAM, with no explanation or apology, a MASSIVE change like this.
How can they have fact-based beliefs and have THAT as an outcome? Until just … what, 2 weeks ago? They were still railing on how evil evil EVIL the right wing, anti-immigrant people are. I see no way to find “good faith” in their activity, and it’s very disturbing.
But then, I never got along well with the other students in middle school, which is what this behaviour reminds me of – all that matters is being in the “in” crowd, and what’s “in” has no basis in fact, just fad and “influencer” (before that was a thing) behaviour.
I remember someone in high school asserting the popularity of the teller of a rumor was evidence of its truth.
There is no common ground for communication with someone like that.
Change in policy is not necessarily a change in actions.
Members like France and Germany will not be in a rush to remove anyone.
Denmark, Sweden and Norway may want to but lack the will.
Our house in Holland (built around 1960) had hinged windows everywhere, with a latch to hold it closed and a bar with notches to hold it open. Double hung windows I saw only once: in high school, where the class rooms had them, giant size (6 or 8 feet square, at a guess).