Quote of the Day
The Australian government has spent the last decade introducing steep tax hikes to curb smoking, and, as a result, the country has the most expensive cigarettes in the world. The average price of mainstream cigarettes is 54.99 Australian dollars per pack (about $40). But the eyewatering prices have driven people to the black market.
The Australian government has spent the last decade introducing steep tax hikes to curb smoking, and, as a result, the country has the most expensive cigarettes in the world. The average price of mainstream cigarettes is 54.99 Australian dollars per pack (about $40). But the eyewatering prices have driven people to the black market.
…
between 2016 and 2025, the price of legal cigarettes nearly tripled while tobacco duty revenue more than halved. As a result, the Australian Treasury has downgraded tobacco excise revenue by $8 billion over the next five years in the latest federal budget.
Lower tax revenue is hardly something to mourn, but Australia’s collapsing legal tobacco market has come with a far darker consequence: a severe wave of gang violence, including firebombings and shootings. Since 2023, organized crime groups linked to Australia’s illicit tobacco and vape market have been tied to “more than 200 firebombings,” “at least 3 homicides,” and “multiple other non-fatal violent attacks,” according to the Australian Intelligence Commission.
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Australia is yet another cautionary tale of what happens when the government polices the personal choices of adults and opens up a new front in the war on drugs. Even if the Australian government were to now reverse course and reduce tobacco taxes, illegal purchase has become normalized. It will be far more difficult to move customers out of the thriving black market that the taxes have created than it would have been in the first place.
Reem Ibrahim
June 5, 2026
Australia Tried To Tax Smoking Out of Existence. Now 80% of Tobacco Aussies Consume Is From the Black Market.
“This is no surprise!”, you might say. And, of course, many people recognize the pattern from the alcohol prohibition era in the U.S. and the current recreational drug market. Some will even predict a similar pattern will happen with firearm bans in the U.S. Yet, here is the part that just baffles me. Yeah, I know, it is irrational to assume people will be rational. Some of those same people will absolutely insist that “Big Phara”, “Big Oil”, or even “The Jews” can control some market.
When I hear someone claim that there is some cheap cure of cancer, some other disease or a dramatic life extension, or a gadget that can dramatically increase your gas mileage, or some other too good to be true claim, but the pharmaceutical/oil/whatever companies are suppressing it, I roll my eyes. If that were true then why when government attempt to dramatically increase the tax like with cigarettes in Australia or even completely ban alcohol other recreational drugs, and prostitution, the market still finds a way to deliver the product?
If a complete government ban on something does not prevent just about any room temperature high school dropout from obtaining the product, then how can the cure for cancer, old age, and the creation of 100 MPG 1970 Ford Galaxies be suppressed? And furthermore, as in the case of the dimwitted high school age kids, why doesn’t “everyone” know where to get a miracle cure for cancer and a 250 MPG gasoline powered Toyota Corolla?
Why can’t they understand that there is overwhelming evidence that the market always find a way?
It is easy to state the obvious, “People are just stupid.” But I don’t think that explains it. Many of the people believing this crap are not stupid in the general sense. I think it is a more subtle psychological issue in involving one or more of the following things and probably others:
- People hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest.
- Some people get great pleasure believing they know something other people do not know–to the point of “knowing” outrageous things because of the feelings they get from their delusions.
- Many people don’t understand how markets work and even the world in general. In their bafflement they imagine things to explain things which are mysterious to them. Witches, ghosts, and demons are just a different manifestation of the same mental deficiency.
- Some people grew up in a family or even an entire culture of these beliefs.
For me, I keep reminding myself, “It is not rational to expect people to be rational.” But I really just want to retire to my underground bunker in Idaho and let the rest of the world rot in their delusions.
We had a great example of this exact phenomenon right here on in your comments section just a month or two ago, with a certain commenter absolutely sure that the only reason we drill for oil rather than growing stuff and converting it to gasoline or some equivalent was “Big Oil” and such.
It was kinda sad, actually, the level of obvious fail in that.
But I do honestly suspect that there is at least one such “Big X” keeping at least one such thing under wraps… I don’t know which one, but there are certainly people that TRY all the time, so it seems plausible that one of them has succeeded. The accusation against most of the “Big X” people is only wrong in capability, not willingness.
In fact, I can actually think of one that DID succeed for quite a long time and is only weakened but not actually gone today – in the spirit of the conspiracy theorist, I shall refer to them as “Big Diamond”. They actually did manage to artificially inflate the market price of diamonds for a long time, to the point that the weakening they have experienced is largely due to the technological breakthrough of man-made diamonds.
So it’s not truly *impossible*…
Yeah, “Big Diamond” (De Beers) managed to create and hold onto a worldwide source monopoly. It also did things like buy and store diamonds when there were more diamonds than market demand. It also created demand with advertising and creating a culture where diamond engagement rings were expected (“A diamond is forever.”)
They started losing it in the 1990s not only to synthetic diamonds but also to sources they were unable to control in Russia, Australia, Canada, etc.). Producers also started marketing their own diamonds. So, ultimately, the market did find a way.
Yes, but it took 100+ years. People were born, lived a full life, and died while that was in effect.
So, as I said, it’s not truly impossible… just extraordinarily difficult.
It does help that most of the people who try are not even close to capable of it. The difficulty is underestimated, even by people like you who say it’s impossible.
But this single example is enough to prove it is possible.
Agreed.
Now do the “ethical diamonds “
we can look at the cigarette business in New York to find a market closer to home like the one in Australia. Cigarettes are smuggled in and sold under the counter, so to speak in the hopes that the Cigarette police won’t notice. Other means of beating the high costs of cigarettes by the pack was seen recently in 2014 when Eric Garner was arrested for selling them by the single cigarette, what are called “Loosies.” He died in a chokehold “administered” to subdue him during his arrest.
Selling untaxed anything can be deadly.
Now that California prohibits the mailorder purchase of ammunition, I wonder how long until a non-gang member will be killed while resisting arrest for the possession of untaxed ammunition.
There is a common theme to all those things, actually.
The short, pithy version of it is “Evil.”
TPTB seek death, destruction, chaos, and power for the common man. They want to keep the common man as demoralized debt-slaves, fearful of disease, fearful of job loss, fearful of the dark, of climate change, of gangs, etc. The “elites” are a small group, but seek to asset-strip though expensive energy, expensive health care, expensive regulations, expensive everything, to remove freedoms and options from the commoner.
First they want money, then they have more than they can use, and it’s not enough.
Then they want economic/commercial power, but eventually it’s not enough.
Then they want the political power, but it’s not enough.
Then they want the power of life and death, but it’s not enough.
Then they want to revel in our misery, flaunting their power and wealth and rubbing our nose in it.
Then to want to degrade us, make us feel helpless, and know we can’t do anything about us.
They want to be like gods, ruling everything.
You might think that my speedo-brand tinfoil hat is a bit tight… but it fits the pattern. That’s why they hate Christians and Christianity so much.
Maybe right, maybe not, but you yourself admit you don’t know why it happens, and have not posited a better answer.
What is it the libertarians (“BIG L” or “small l”) always say?
“You can’t repeal the law of supply and demand.”