Quote of the Day
A recent news headline declared, “11,500 shootings occurred within 500 yards of US schools last year.” The obvious implication is that American school children are under daily fire on school campuses nationwide. But, as with most gun control narratives in national media written by reporters who mostly don’t understand the basics of firearms or criminal gun use, that narrative collapses under the slightest scrutiny.
The first glaring red flag in this story is that Hearst Television Data Visualization Journalist Susie Webb and the WCVB Get the Facts Data Team built their agenda-driven narrative by relying on gun control advocacy site The Trace’s “School-Adjacent Shootings” dataset, which tracks Gun Violence Archive (GVA) incidents that fell within 500 yards of a K-12 school. Even that dataset warns that each row is a shooting-to-school match and must be deduplicated before anyone totals up the incidents, deaths or injuries. However, that was not done before Webb and WVTM’s story went live on several news outlets, on social media, on Hearst Television’s YouTube channel and was even—unsurprisingly—picked up by MSN.
This blatant error is not a trivial methodological footnote. It is the difference between measuring school-related crime and measuring a broad circle on a map. It’s also a trick that’s been seen time and again from the likes of Everytown’s propagandist at The Trace and GVA.
The central problem is in the dataset’s own limitations. Each row is a “shooting-to-school match,” meaning one shooting can be linked to multiple schools if several campuses fall within the 500-yard range.
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The public hears “31 shootings a day near schools” and is encouraged to picture students dodging bullets at recess. But the GVA data are more often than not actually criminal and gang activity near or after school hours, accidental discharges, suicides, police interventions near a campus and/or juveniles getting caught with a firearm at school. This means the methodology sweeps in a much wider universe of incidents with duplication risk baked in.
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The result is predictable: bad facts drive bad policy. The issue here is not whether crime near schools is serious. The issue is whether the public is being told the truth. On that question, the answer is clear. The methodology does not support the headline, and the headline does not deserve the public’s trust. We all have a right to expect more from those who hold themselves out as objective journalists.
Salam Fatohi
April 9, 2026
‘31 Shootings a Day’ Media Narrative Collapses Under Easy Scrutiny • NSSF
Emphasis added.
The autho
The anti-gun people are deliberately deceptive and liars. It is fundamental to their culture. This is just one more example.
When the facts don’t support the case, then lies and deceptions to invoke an emotional response is all they have. As has been true of tyrants and authoritarians throughout history
IIRC, the “Gun Violence Archive” also uses news reports as sources, so multiple media reports of the same incident can appear as separate incidents.
And isn’t there a warning on the site that the data must be de-duplicated (i.e. duplicate entries removed) before it can be used for statistical purposes?
Even if there is such a warning, don’t expect the media to give it any heed or bother trying to clear duplicate events before running with their “sky is falling” reports.
That is correct. The article the quote comes from mentions this.
The focus on shootings 500 yards from schools is a perfect example of how numbers can be twisted to fit a narrative. If we’re truly concerned about school safety, we should focus on accurate data and look at incidents directly on campuses, not just in the surrounding areas.
More specifically, it should only count incidents:
1. directly on campuses,
2. during school hours, AND
3. involving students and/or staff.
All three should be true for it to be a true “school shooting.”
A shooting stemming from “drug deal gone wrong” that happens at midnight on a Saturday and/or in the middle of summer, between thugs in their 20s unaffiliated with the school, should not be counted as a “school shooting” even if it happens in the elementary school playground (or more likely, the high school parking lot). But you’ll find a bunch of incidents like that in the GVA dataset; school was not in session and no students or staff were involved — let alone harmed — and the only thing that makes it a “school shooting” was its location.
Extending that out to 500 yards (or 1000 yards, as some datasets do) from campus is just dumb.
I would further remove justified defensive shootings from the “school shooting” count.
Good call. I concur.
As an aside, my hometown was considering an ordinance prohibiting “gun stores” within 1000 meters of any “school” (defined as a public or private primary or secondary school, post-secondary college or university, church that runs a school in its building, or licensed daycare).
In response, I took a map, plotted out the locations of each “school” I could find, and drew and shaded a red circle with a radius representing 1000 meters.
There was one tiny triangle of land left uncovered, maybe 50 feet across … and it’s in the middle of an airfield; literally NO buildings within 1000 meters. And there’s enough overlap in the circles that if I reduced it to 500 meters instead of 1000, about 95% of the city’s “habitable” area (i.e. NOT in the middle of an airfield, river, or lake) would still be covered.
IOW, the “500 yard/meter rule” for “school shootings” would include almost every shooting anywhere in town; the only places not covered are ones where people can’t really spend any reasonable amount of time.
I strongly encourage anyone who lives in a city or town of any reasonable size — for example, large enough to have at least one or two high schools, each with its own base of “feeder” schools — do the same exercise. See how much land area is left after you cordon off 500 or 1000 yards or meters around every “school”. There probably won’t be much.
Gang shooting at 2 am Sunday morning 499 yards away from the school? SCHOOL SHOOTING!!!!!!!
Negligent discharge by the school police officer? SCHOOL SHOOTING!!!!!!!
80YO Vietnam vet commits suicide in his own home 3 blocks from the school? SCHOOL SHOOTING!!!!!!!
Yup. That is the only way they can get the response they want. These people are evil.
A gang shooting on the other side of a raised freeway right of way with the school backing up to the freeway on one side? Another School Shooting.
Hair on FIRE!!!!!
So if ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, The network formerly known as MSNBC. and any number of Network morning shows report this, the same two gang members who missed each other and hit the freeway embankment could be eight incidents statistically speaking.
The majority of homicides happen in large cities. In fact, 10 US cities are responsible for 20% of US homicides.
Guess what else is in large cities? Schools.
For example, 85% of New York City is within 500 yards of a school.
Therefore, so is 85% of the crime.
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