Quote of the Day
I am convinced that war will begin and Iran will be at the center of that war. The problem is that Iran is much stronger than Ukraine or Palestine, and therefore a proxy war against Iran will have unpredictable consequences. Among these, the least unpredictable is the generalization of the war when China concludes that, with the defeat of Iran (which is very likely), it will no longer have access to the energy resources essential for its expansion. It should be borne in mind that China has just suffered a huge defeat in Venezuela and that Latin American countries are to China what Middle Eastern countries are to the US. Their loyalty stems from convenience and, moreover, they are under increasing US pressure to reduce their relations with China.
It is therefore very likely that World War III will begin. As I said, the signs are evident, but that does not mean it will not come as a surprise. Just as Cuba is the same as Gaza, but without bombs, World War III could begin with any weak link in US-EU-Israel imperialism. I suspect that this weak link is the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The war begins with the loss of economic power on a global scale and escalates with the collapse of dollar-based financial capital. Bombs can be used as causes or as consequences. The only way this will not happen is if the gold reserves that countries have been frantically accumulating prevent it. I highly doubt it.
Boaventura de Sousa Santos
March 2, 2026
World War III is about to begin
I quote Santos here not because I think he has something profoundly correct to say, but because I believe it to be profoundly false. Yes, there is a nonzero possibility of WWIII breaking out. But with the major military support lining up on one side of the current fight, I do not expect it to spread worldwide or major players to take what is almost certainly going to be the losing side. Sure, the U.S. having control over China’s oil supply will be a problem for them. But I don’t see China thinking that is justifiable cause for war. I expect the U.S. will use it for bargaining power in trade deals, not for the destruction of China. I expect Iranian oil to be flowing again in a few weeks to any country that is reasonably friendly to the West. Venezuelan oil is also going to be available to reasonably friendly countries. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and to a certain extent the addition of oil on the world market will be bad for U.S. oil producers. Expect prices to drop in a few months as the conflict settles and the supply lines are reestablished.
As further evidence of Santos being out of touch here is his recipe for avoidance of WWIII:
Is there nothing we can do to prevent World War III?
Yes, there is.
1- An international petition asking UN Secretary-General António Guterres to resign immediately in view of the high probability of war and the UN’s inability to prevent it.
2- Take to the streets in defense of Cuba and Iran as we did in defense of Palestine.
3- Organize protests in front of the US and Israeli embassies and EU representations.
4- Considering that the most repugnant (though not the weakest) link in the US-EU-Israel triad is Israel, boycott Israel through the BDS movement.
He thinks protests change things. No, protests are for virtue signaling. Trade (or lack of it), diplomacy and physical force change things.
ISRAEL is the “most repugnant” and we need to SAVE Iran. What a disgusting, evil person.
Also, that list of actions is… toddler-tantrum level of silliness in terms of actually changing anything.
Sure, the U.S. having control over China’s oil supply will be a problem for them. But I don’t see China thinking that is justifiable cause for war.
I hope so. And it helps that China’s senior military leadership seems to be in a state of chaos, due to Xi’s Stalin-like purges.
But this exact situation is why Japan decided to start a war in 1941.
+1
It would be a stupid move to back any peer nation into a corner.
In 1941, the U.S. severed all trade with Japan and was providing support to China, which Japan had invaded. Those are important differences.
I had to go to Grokipedia to find this clown’s bio. Superannuated Euro Marxist who got pushed out academia (his entire working life) because of multiple sexual harassment accusations. So, a typical Lib.
Of course he would recommend 100% performative actions with zero actual impact.
Barring Chinese or Russian intervention, there is nothing that can happen in the ME that will lead to WW3. And they seem inclined to strong statements. Not really sure what either could do short of preemptive nuking or perhaps trying to take advantage of US being occupied like invading Taiwan or Estonia. As already noted, China is occupied with a massive purge of the military and Russia is tied down in Ukraine.
I think minted gold and silver and other precious metals are the only Constitutionally sound money. I think the current fractional reserve banking system is an abomination that will crash and burn and cause unimaginable horror sometime in the future. Having said that, recent world events and the US military’s demonstrations of effectiveness and unparalleled superiority beyond any rival lend great credence to “full faith…” in the dollar as THE world’s currency.
The dollar used to be backed by gold. That was the standard throughout much of history. It has several good points to it… and a few bad. It is pretty well known.
The dollar is no longer backed by gold. It is now backed by “dudes with guns who will come take your stuff if you don’t use it to pay your taxes”. This is a very new standard, on the historical scale, and for at least the first while, it was coasting along on generations of habit in use of money.
We do not yet know the good things and bad things about this standard, but one thing that seems pretty well known about it already is the it is driven in MUCH larger part than the previous standard by the public’s confidence in… I don’t know, stability? Not sure what to put here, but “strength of government” is part of it, but also “how much trust we have in the government to not abuse that power” seems to also matter.
Interesting stuff. I would enjoy that interesting-ness much more if I weren’t part of the experiment….
Yes, the gold standard was abandoned in 1913, when the Federal Reserve was created supposedly to stop boom/bust cycles. Of course that didn’t work. One has to wonder whether it ever actually was the goal, or merely the public excuse.