An End to Tiresome Speculation?

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Via Andy Ngo:

Charlie Kirk Assassin Suspect Appears to Have Killed for Antifa, Confirmed Rifle Cartridge Messages Show

At a Friday morning press conference announcing the arrest of 22-year-old Tyler Robinson in the assassination of Charlie Kirk, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox revealed new details about evidence collected at the scene of the shooting.

There had been confusion after the New York Times cited an unnamed law enforcement source countering reporting by The Wall Street Journal and Steven Crowder (via his ATF source) about Antifa and trans phrases on rifle cartridges. Gov. Cox’s remarks now confirm that Antifa phrases were indeed found.

According to Cox, one cartridge was inscribed with: “Hey fascist! Catch!” Another read: “Oh bella ciao, bella ciao, bella ciao, ciao, ciao.”

…

The governor noted that other casings read: “If you read this you are gay lmao” and “Notices, bulges OWO what’s this?” The latter appears to be a reference to a furry online meme.

Cox’s clarification narrows the speculation: the casings bear clear Antifa references but, at this stage, do not appear to contain any direct mention of trans ideology.

Via MSN:

Tyler Robinson, 22, facing capital murder and weapons charges: Details emerge about alleged Charlie Kirk assassin

A suspect in the assassination of conservative activist and close Trump ally Charlie Kirk has been identified as 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox announced on Friday.

“We got him,” Cox said at a news conference to announce the arrest of Robinson who was taken into custody Thursday on suspicion of capital murder, weapons and obstruction offenses.

…

The suspect is said to be listed as politically “unaffiliated,” although both his parents are believed to be Republicans.

Cox said the suspect arrived on the campus of Utah Valley University on Wednesday at 8:29 a.m. in a gray Dodge Challenger. He was wearing a plain maroon t-shirt, light shorts, and a black hat with a white logo, as seen in surveillance videos. He wore the same clothes when he was arrested on Thursday night.

Robinson was not a student at the Utah Valley University, where the shooting happened.

“He was living, and had lived for a long time, with his family in Washington County,” Cox said.

Utah voting information seen by The Independent shows his voter status is “inactive,” meaning he has not voted in the last two general elections or responded to notices sent by a county clerk. His party affiliation is listed as “unaffiliated.”

However, family members said Robinson had become “more political in recent years,” expressed negative views of Kirk and told family members he believed the Turning Point USA founder was “full of hate and spreading hate,” Cox said.

He revealed that the family member told investigators that at a recent family dinner, Robinson had mentioned Kirk’s upcoming Utah Valley event, and “they talked about why they didn’t like him and the viewpoints that he had.”

After the shooting, Cox said Robinson’s father recognized his son in photos that law enforcement released and reached out to a family friend, who happened to be a minster, to encourage Robinson to turn himself in.

My hope is this will end the tiresome speculation I have been reading in various places. It was obvious to me there was far too little information to make nearly all the conclusions asserted.

Years ago, I decided I did not have the time to correct everyone on the Internet, or even in the comments to my blog, that is wrong. Yes, many speculations were decent hypothesis, but as one of my physics professors once said, “We need lots of data with narrow error bands or else the theorists will drive trucks through them.” Decades later I still remember the three data points with error bands on the blackboard and the set of squiggly lines he drew through them.

We now have many more data points with much tighter error bands. The set of squiggly lines than can be fit through those error bands just became far fewer in number and significantly less squiggly.

But, as I have come to discover, people will vehemently believe what they want to believe. Or, as Paul Simon sang:

All lies and jest, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

<heavy sigh>

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38 thoughts on “An End to Tiresome Speculation?”

  1. I’ve had this feeling that a lot of these AntiFa assholes are on someone’s payroll. Isn’t ActBlue shelling out millions of dollars for leftwing activists to show up at their bidding?
    If he was being paid by ActBlue that would make for some interesting times on the House and Senate floors of the Capitol.

    • It should be relatively easy for law enforcement to find out if there were financial connections to sponsors.

      I expect the present administration has the motivation to track down and respond appropriately to that hypothesis.

      • You assume that law enforcement has any interest in the truth.
        You know that government officials lie, Joe. You KNOW.
        What makes this believable and accurate with a high level of confidence?

        Of course it’s totally coincidental that Turning Point USA, an org founded by Charlie Kirk (who was a solid Christian, who favored strong borders and was starting to chill on Israel), will now be headed by Ben Shapiro (a Jew who favors open borders). I’m sure nothing will change, right?

        • Yes. The government frequently lies. And legacy media lies. But they lie about different things. The legacy media supports the lies of a left-wing government, and it creates lies about right-wing administrations. And the more people involved in a lie the more likely it is that the truth will come out. The current set of circumstances make it very unlikely there will be a coherent lie dominant.

          Do you think it is a lie that Robinson’s father participated in turning in his own son after hearing what amounted to a confession? The media is interviewing neighbors. They are reviewing social media. They are talking to former classmates. Unless Robinson pleads guilty to avoid the death penalty, the trial will be public. Law enforcement has palm, arm and shoe prints. If Robinson is “Jack Ruby’d” then I might consider the dominant story evolving will go astray. It is nearly impossible to imagine a lie of the magnitude you imply surviving more than a few days.

          Do you still want to hold on to, “It was 99% like a professional hit by DS / intelligence agencies.”? Or are you mostly settled into something like Jewish mind control now?

          Oh, and you didn’t see the object he jumped off the roof with? It looked big enough to be a rifle in a large duffle bag to me.

          • Only vids I saw of him leaving the roof looked to me like had a small day-pack sized item, not a full-sized rife case, but none had anything like a quality zoom in. Got a link?

    • Nancy Mace was tweeting “bring back the death penalty!” when she thought the shooter was a liberal. Now that it looks like he’s a Groyper and follower of Nick Fuentes and shot Kirk because he wasn’t extreme *enough*, Mace is tweeting about mental heath and bringing him back to Jesus. “Justice for me, but not for thee.” I do love a good double standard.

      Gonna be fun times watching the Repubs walk this one back….

      • No, he’s not a hard-right white nationalist who thought Kirk wasn’t extreme enough. He was a leftie.

        Lefties keep killing people, then call for calm, unity, and dialog, and then do it again when Charlie Kirk’s main schtick is that we have to talk and exchange ideas and understand one another, because when talking ends then violence starts…. yet the left are the ones who resort to violence far more often than the right.

      • On the subject of walking things back, and as long as I’m at 38000 feet over Borneo with nothing else to do and the wifi is working:

        Re-evaluated any associations, today, John?

        You know, were any of your acquaintances gleefully blood-dancing like psychopaths in celebration of the assassination of the father of two young children?

        So while you’re desperately trying to flog a false-flag narrative (did you get it from the Atlantic this time, or a different revcom cheer squad?), what you can’t wash away is the death-joy of the cowards that don’t have the stones to do it themselves, but they’re happy to let the next one know he/she/they will be feted and celebrated by all the beautiful people.

        And there will be another one. They’ve made sure of it. There’s a bit of a psychopath gap between the read-Marx-and-didn’t-get-the-joke side and the family-job-responsibilities-and-leave-me-be side, and psychopaths with inferior weapons have a offensive edge over the people that are considering their superior arms as tools for self defense.

        • No, nobody I know is celebrating his death. At the same time, they’re not mourning it either, since this is a guy who said gays should be stoned to death and that he didn’t trust black people to fly airplanes. Should he have been killed for expressing those ideas? Of course not. But when a guy who tells gay people they should be brutally murdered dies himself in a murder, it’s not hard to understand a lack of sympathy for him from the people he hated. You can have sympathy for his kids, but that’s about it.

          Back to the data point: The idea that Robinson said something about trans people turns out to have been investigators seeing “TRN” stamped on the cartridge case not not realizing that was the maker of the cartridge and had nothing to do with anything political.

          So going back to the OP, we don’t know why he did anything, it’s all just speculation at this point, but the fact that conservatives like Nancy Mace are publicly backing away from their initial hot takes tells me there’s lots of more data to had that we don’t yet have, and that things like his Groyper association have to also be considered. I disagree with Joe that the error bands have gotten tighter, it looks to me like they’re just as big as they were a couple days ago, and it’ll be weeks or months before they get any tighter, if they ever do.

          • Thanks for letting us know that the act of political murder is of no particular concern to you if the deceased has been described to you in sufficiently horrible, if entirely fabricated and/or hyperbolically misconstrued, terms. After all, you know that someone is a fascist because they are being punched in the face, since that is what one does to people you’re told are fascist.

            You have adequately signaled your progressive virtue as a caveat to your capacity for humanity. You will not be eaten by your fellow travelers… today.

            • Thanks for letting us know you only argue with straw men. If you read what I said, you’ll see that I didn’t say it was “of no particular concern” but that I understood why many don’t mourn him. There’s a difference.

              But it appears you’d rather argue with a caricature of me than the actual person and what I’m saying, so have fun.

          • It’s not speculation any longer.
            Charlie Kirk was an open book when it comes to wanting to discuss ideas politely.
            And he was murdered because no one could win against his arguments.
            How you feel about his murder just tells us who you are.
            And how you view open and honest debate.
            And more to the point, how we should view what it is you have to say.
            Your useful idiot deflection from that point aside.

          • So, you just said that the only reason to show mercy and forbearance is if the criminal is on “Your” side of the political spectrum.
            ———– !!!
            You most certainly did.
            You conclude, with the same zero evidence you point to elsewhere in this tragedy, that “the fact that conservatives like Nancy Mace are publicly backing away from their initial hot takes [capital punishment, in favor of a mental health approach] tells me [you] there’s lots of more data to [be] had.”

            Perhaps, instead, she bases her more restrained opinion now on the “tender years doctrine.”
            And I agree that while some of the error bands are getting tighter, not all of them are, and not to the same degree. There is still lots to know.

          • No, HE DID NOT say that he thinks gays should be stoned to death. You are falling into the trap of believing what those who hate him and misrepresent what he said. Go to the source, watch HIM and what he said. If you think he did say then, then go get the clip and post the link of him saying it to prove he said it.

            Maybe you personally are not celebrating Kirk’s murder, but the murderer is one of your guys. There ARE people on your side celebrating his murder. Own it. https://gellerreport.com/2025/09/tyler-robinson-was-really-leftist.html/

          • Well John;
            “No, nobody I know is celebrating his death. At the same time, they’re not mourning it either, since this is a guy who said gays should be stoned to death and that he didn’t trust black people to fly airplanes.”
            And that’s not a “straw man” or made-up argument?
            What makes you slimely is you take some communist lie and repeat it like it was gospel truth.
            Oh it’s not me, it’s on CNN. Here’s the link.
            No, it’s your faggy lying argument john.
            “Look in the mirror and accuse the other guy of what your doing” is what you do. It’s what all commies are doing today.
            Pure communist crap.
            One would get more honesty out of a homicide-bomber jahidi than you.

            • So to summarize:

              You value Kirk because you think he “discuss[ed] ideas politely”, while you yourself call me “faggy” “communist” “moron”.

              I mean, if that makes you feel better, fine, knock yourself out, but at least own your hypocrisy. (Don’t worry, I’m not holding my breath on that one.)

              Isn’t it interesting how Trump ordered flags to half staff for Kirk, but not for Rep. Melissa Hortman and her family? Almost like he saw no reason to mourn them.

              Funny how that works.

              Hypocrisy. It’s the flavor of the year.

              • Well, I ain’t Charlie Kirk.
                And like I said, you’all just murdered the last guy that wanted to discuss your condition politely.
                I’ve admitted to my hypocrisy many times to you.
                You ever feel like apologizing for your own?
                Your communist deflections on matters of the day?
                Still going with same BS that the murderer was a conservative?
                I on the other hand understand people like yourself for being the murderous, faggy, communist, morons that you are. Or at least someone that doesn’t mind that type.
                And likes defending their actions.
                That’s not hypocrisy, that’s reality. Go look in the mirror.
                The problems in this country are because everyone is afraid to call you out, and piss you off. And stand ready to back up their big mouth.
                Not me. Anytime.

          • You need to re-calibrate your aural and/or your reading comprehension system. Kirk used a passage in the Old Testament to show how dangerous it is to cherry pick your justification, especially without context. As for Blacks piloting aircraft, his point was that DEI did not, by its own objectives, guarantee that the best able & capable would be the ones flying aircraft.

            • Ok, perhaps this is more clear?

              “Black women do not have brain processing power to be taken seriously. You have to go steal a white person’s slot.” – Charlie Kirk

              • I read the full context quote recently. Not only is the context important, but the original words are different.

                • He was referring to a small set of black women, not all black women in general, who he believed were in their positions because of their skin color and sex.

                • Fair enough. But it’s just one of many such statements from him:

                  “If I see a black pilot, I’m going to be like, boy, I hope he’s qualified.”

                  – The Charlie Kirk Show, January 23rd, 2024

                  “If you’re a WNBA, pot-smoking, black lesbian, do you get treated better than a United States marine?”

                  – The Charlie Kirk Show, December 8th, 2022

                  “Happening all the time in urban America, prowling blacks go around for fun to go target white people, that’s a fact. It’s happening more and more.”

                  – The Charlie Kirk Show, May 19th, 2023

                  “If I’m dealing with somebody in customer service who’s a moronic black woman, I wonder is she there because of her excellence, or is she there because affirmative action?”

                  – The Charlie Kirk Show, January 3rd, 2024

                  “If we would have said that Joy Reid and Michelle Obama and Sheila Jackson Lee and Ketanji Brown Jackson were affirmative action picks, we would have been called racists. Now they’re coming out and they’re saying it for us … You do not have the brain processing power to otherwise be taken really seriously. You had to go steal a white person’s slot to go be taken somewhat seriously.”

                  – The Charlie Kirk Show, July 13th, 2023

      • “Now that it looks like he’s a Groyper and follower of Nick Fuentes and shot Kirk because he wasn’t extreme *enough*,”
        John, of all the moronic useful idiot crap to run out of your commie flapping yap over the years?
        That one takes the cake. (Or in this case a shit-sandwich.)
        But thanks for proving Rolf correct..

  2. It would seem this assassin killed to further and support the agenda of ANTIFA etc. but I see no evidence that he had any support, help or even formal communication with anyone heading that organization. And that is a major issue we face. So many of these loony leftists are self starters…they hang out online in places like Reddit and other liberal leftist sites and become propagandized and indoctrinated to the point where they act….alone. No formal connections required. Makes dealing with the left a tough nut to crack as while they are in many ways much better organized than the conservative right their “shock troop” murderers are rarely part of an organized effort or group.

    • The probable cause statement makes a reference to messages to someone and recovered by LE talking about rifle retrieval. Cops found rifle first.

  4. What Charlie Kirk’s assassin proves is no longer speculation.
    Jesus told us we will know them by what they do.
    We all know the communists.
    And between the murders of Charlie and Iryna we can tell what stage the brainwashing has progressed to. It appears that metastasis has arrived.
    1) They will murder you for even questioning their ignorance. Or even wanting to discuss it politely.
    2) They will murder you for even looking like something they’ve been taught to hate.
    The only real question is to what level have we been brainwashed in excepting their depths of depravity? And continue in the dystopian believe one can talk them out of communism?
    It seems a new cadre of “SS” has been created. (Suicidal Satanists)

    • They don’t. The people who use that word the most understand it the least.
      The Blogger at View From the Porch, Tamara Keel, once reported a conversation she had with the Television.
      From the Television, “A public-private partnership.”
      From Tamara Keel, “Fascism, in other words.”
      Communism says everything is owned by the state. Fascism allows individuals to own anything they can scrape the money together to buy, but they regulate every little thing you can do with it. Once the Nazis took over the government the trains to Berlin were filled with lawyers going to some ministry or another to plead for an exception to some regulation that was paralyzing their client’s business. (“You Can’t Do Business With Hitler”, Douglas Miller, 1941)

  6. So the left kind of has two choices:
    Either they keep saying that Kirk’s shooter was a radicalized lone gunman and admit their hate-filled, heated rhetoric that calls everyone they disagree with Nazis, White Supremacists, bigots, and the worst people since Hitler (when they are not literally Hitler) drives their fringe elements to murder far too often because a lot of lefties are unstable and violent,
    or
    they admit that that the guy they captured was a patsy, and Kirk was assassinated by an organized hit squad sent by [your choice of CIA | MI6 | Mossad | Deep State | Israel | Russians |Drug Cartels | other cabal of control freaks] for some reason, and the world doesn’t really work the way it supposedly does.

    I don’t see a lot of other options being floated out there.

  7. I’m sure this is a completely random coincidence, and there is no possibility that Tyler Robinson was a patsy for something larger:

    The Jewish dude who created a distraction to try and help Charlie’s shooter escape, George Zinn, and who was in a 9/11 documentary blaming bin Ladin, also made a hoax bomb threat at the Boston Marathon, and once was trespassed at an RNC Convention.
    https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a20844576/utah-man-arrested-for-making-bomb-threat-to-marathon/

    Please don’t look into any of the obvious tin-foil-hat ideas at https://www.anonymousconservative.com/news-briefs-09-14-2025/ , either. It’s a totally cut-and-dried shooting, nothing more to see, keep moving…

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