Gradually, Then Suddenly

If the 159 countries number is true, this could be interesting.

159 Countries Set to Adopt BRICS New Payment System (watcher.guru)

Amid the alliance’s continued efforts to create a SWIFT alternative, the economic alliance has sought to create its very own BRICS payment system. It will play a major role in the alliance trade dealings. Specifically, allowing unilateral settlement to be done without the need for the US dollar.

The move is poised to be vital for the bloc and participating nations, and it appears there will be a lot of them. According to one Russian official, there are already 159 countries seeking to adopt the system currently. With a potential launch coming in October, it could have massive global market ramifications.

I’m not an economist, I have never even taken a class on economics. So maybe my concerns are imaginary, but I could see a large number of those dollars being used by other countries returned to the U.S. How many dollars?

Currency in Circulation | U.S. Currency Education Program (uscurrency.gov)

As much as one-half of the value of U.S. currency is estimated to be circulating abroad.

As of December 31, 2020, there was $2,040.7 billion in circulation, totaling 50.3 billion notes in volume.

From that same source we find that in 2022 there was $2,259.3 trillion in circulation. Using a bit of extrapolation and rounding we end up with about $1.2 trillion outside the U.S. in 2024. So, what happens if a substantial number of those dollars come back to the U.S.? It would seem to me that just one or two percent ($12 to $24 billion) would cause noticeable inflation. And then what? More people/countries would want to get rid of their dollars before they lose value due to inflation. It is a run on U.S. goods and property (land) to get something for those dollars. It is the dump of $1.2 trillion dollars all wanting something for their rapidly decreasing in value dollars. The GDP of the U.S. in 2023 was over $27 trillion. But GDP:

aggregates all private and public consumption, investment, government outlays and net exports.

The export portion of our GDP is about 10% of our total GDP, or $2.7 trillion. Not all of that $1.2 trillion would go into exporting of goods, but half or more into the export market would make for “interesting times.” And it would happen, as Ernest Hemingway famously said about bankruptcy, “Gradually, then suddenly.”

Prepare appropriately.

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10 thoughts on “Gradually, Then Suddenly

  1. Well, the source is Russian, so apply the usual spoonfull of salt you would apply to any communist “news”. And three of the countries involved are communist (in reality if not in name).
    If this thing were adopted by some countries (150 is highly implausible) then that would mean those countries would start to exchange their dollar holdings. I don’t think that amounts to “dumping” the dollars; those dollars have value so they would be used to purchase something else, perhaps currency exchanging, perhaps other things.

      • Ya, imagine that. America going down that road after watching what happened everywhere else it’s been tried?
        Like Lavrov said; “We couldn’t afford Swiss cheese, so we learned how to make it ourselves.”
        Russia has truly pulled themselves up by their bootstraps.

    • They will be used to puchase things in the US, because the US is not actively engaged in dumping them. They’ll buy US farms, water rights, etc.

      In short, those dollars are all coming home. When they get here, they’ll stay here. The money supply will double, just as the supply of goods and services is crashing…. then the *real* communists will light the fuse with price controls.

  2. Costco still sells gold and silver. If you don’t already have some stacked, you should change that. Chickens (weaponizing the dollar for 70 years) meet roost (collapse of the fiat dollar system)

  3. Seems to me the biggest problem is what we export. All transactions in currency are for the carry value of trade.
    If currency A your using is devaluing greater than the currency B. And what you want to buy over a given time period can be purchased in B.
    Then why use A?
    About the only thing we export is dollars. BRICS on the other hand is being put up by countries that produce and sale products.
    Your country needs oil and cheap crap products? Why not trade in the currency of the countries your buying from?
    Instead of adding on the price of inflationary vig by using dollars for your purchases?
    Everyone setting themselves up to use Bitcoin, gold & silver, canned goods and ammo, instinctively understands that.
    Now, would I trust China and Russia to run a fair game? Not as far as I could throw them.
    But having lived with American bankers all my life?
    I don’t blame anyone for wanting to do something different. Even though it looks more like a hostile take-over.
    And if your an outsider taking a hard look at, Trump or Harris?
    Who doesn’t want out?

    • It is a hostile takeover which is the traditional response to dysfunctional management. De-dollarization would be very painful in the short run but if there is another way to get the economic crazies under control, I don’t know it. So bring it on.

      • Agreed, But I’m not sure getting the crazies under control is the objective. (They seem to be running things?)
        Over restarting the cycle of theft and murder that is part and parcel of Keynesian economics?
        Wars, famine, and a host of moronic government policies help us forget who the real enemy is.
        And through it all, the super-rich somehow manage to stay super-rich.
        Don’t seem to me the crazies are going anywhere.
        Ya, see you on the beach, brother.

  4. A mere $2 trillion? The government creates that and more as fiat currency every year now.

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