Quote of the Day
This logic inevitably leads to the third world war. And if right now the further involvement of the West in the conflict in Ukraine is not stopped, then the full-fledged, “hot” war between Russia and NATO will become inevitable.
Moreover, due to the superiority of the United States and NATO in the field of conventional weapons, this war will certainly go to the nuclear level.
Dmitry Suslov
Senior member of the Moscow-based think tank Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, wrote about the suggestion in the Russian business magazine Profile
May 2024
War Footing: World on Edge as Russia is Told to ‘Demonstrate’ Nuclear Explosion to ‘Scare’ West (msn.com)
I want to be in my underground bunker in Idaho. My employer wants me to be in the office a minimum of four days a week.
Putin is a black belt in Judo. Judo is a style of fighting in that you trick your adversary into losing balance so he can be thrown down.
And this is most important in dealing with pier, or near -pier enemies.
One does not engage until you have a clear advantage. Or you have absolutely no choice.
Demonstrating nukes, and warning of nukes is that push in one direction just before you get jerked over and thrown in the opposite direction.
Everyone knows there will be no limit with nukes. It’s all or nothing.
(At which point even the surviving clown-world clowns will never set foot in the northern hemisphere again.)
This is a stall for time. As the importation of criminal aliens zeniths into the western banking reset.
At which point the USA, Euro, and NATO will collapse from their own stupidity and greed. And most everyone else in the world will side into recession-depression.
And Putin is going to be the big winner all around. The Russians can at least feed themselves. And keep the lights on. While the rest of the world, (even China), get their asses kicked by lack of resource/s management.
I wouldn’t worry about Putin and nukes. (If it goes nuke it’s over, period.)
Watch the border and banks. That’s going to be our fight.
All or nothing with nukes has been the official US doctrine. It is not the Soviet/Russian doctrine. This asymmetry is very dangerous which is one reason why all the proxy confrontations since Cuba have been far away from a vital interest of the nuclear powers. Cuba was the closest we have ever come to a nuclear war, until now.
Frankly,I doubt Russia’s nuclear arsenal is in any better condition than their conventional forces.
With as much regular maintenance and servicing that ICBMs require combined with the tendency for government materials and funds to be siphoned into personal pockets while reports get pencil whipped I’m actually not that worried. Odd thing for me to say,as a Cold War vet.
Might they get a few out of the silos? Perhaps.
Will they be enough to physically destroy the world? I doubt it.
Economic turmoil and disruption, yes.
Panic, yes.
A “The Day After”, scenario? Again, I doubt it.
Horrific in any area one might manage to hit, yes.
Then there is the question of our defenses, which look to be adequate….as long as TPTB don’t intentionally let anything through.
Of course little of what I’ve said would apply to weapons smuggled in a shipping container by sea and detonated in one of our ports.
I have been out of the Intel world for a decade now so take my theories with a large helping of salt. Things are always changing, but except for additions of glide bombs and a handful of hypersonic missiles and upgraded SA-11 derivatives, which are very effective, Russian armaments haven’t changed much in 10 years. As a retired analyst I would rate the possibility of Russia using several tactical nukes exclusively within Ukraine and the Black Sea as “high” if Russia is losing the conventional war, thus endangering Putin’s regime with a likely coupe. If that happens I don’t expect to see any nuclear detonations anywhere else unless NATO directly attacks Russia.
Considering Russia is winning, solidly and slowly with a steady “land-war-in-Asia” grind, but he is absolutely winning. There is no reason to escalate to a wild-card like nukes.
Clown-World, on the other hand, see the end-game fast approaching, and they don’t like the cards they are holding. There -is- an incentive for them to escalate.
US nuke planning policy is insane:
That’s the thing, though.
Because there is an incentive for one side to escalate to nukes, that creates an incentive for the other side to preemptively go nuclear, to show that they mean business.
Not sure how to game that one out, quite. Normally in a nuclear war, you would want to launch everything you’ve got first, in the hope that you cripple them before they can respond.
Not sure this “limited” nuke exchange stuff plays out, but I don’t like it.
Only way I can see a “limited” deployment working is if there is a strike to level London/Brussels/DC (or Moscow/Beijing/Tehran), to show they mean business, and then everyone says “ok, message received” and then does not escalate. Fat chance.
Launch first, launch ‘em all, duck, cover, and hope for the best.
Russia and US nuke doctrine is totally different.
Russian allows for limited tactical use, but there is absolutely no reason for that now; they are winning, no need to open that genie up.
But US doctrine has insane “victory conditions.” If they start nuking people they nuke EVERYONE and everything. If they think RUS is going nuclear, they will retaliate and also nuke every other country in the world that might eventually arise to challenge US power. They’d hit China, both Koreas, India, parts of Europe, the Middle east, Pakistan, Mexico, EVERYBODY who might arise to challenge the remnant of US power that eventually arises from the rubble.
We do not have sane people, let alone good people, in charge.
That doesn’t game out, though.
Once you start the “limited” stuff it’s going to escalate, slowly or quickly
If you escalate but not all the way, you lose to whoever does escalate that much
If you escalate slowly you leave your enemy an opening
So it only makes sense to strike first & hard. That way either they lose or we all die & it doesn’t matter.
But you def don’t want to be the first person to throw a nuclear pea-shooter.
The object of the game is to maybe be the last one standing afterwards.
And because it doesn’t game out the only sane thing to do, is to avoid that.
But you are right, they are insane, because no one is trying to avoid nuclear war
At best, even if you do “win” that one, it would be Pyrrhic.
It’s basically game-theoretically identical to the classic Mexican standoff:
Whoever shoots first, loses.
Except as an added bonus, so does everyone else.
I have spotty gun maintenance. Want to let me shoot you? You are making an assumption and the stakes are utter destruction.
The superiority of NATO in conventional weapons? Seriously?
What are they smoking? Because it must have been cut with some really bad stuff, man. NATO-backed Ukraine is getting its ass handed to it by Russian forces, slowly but surely. Russia is pursuing a force-conserving strategy, has greater production of basic arms and ammo than all of NATO combine even before getting to it’s supporters in China and N Korea, and out industrial base has been totally gutted.
We are losing, badly. Not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s absolutely a thing.
I think he might be playing Dale Carnegie with that one.
He has fallen to Russian inferiority complex. “The West is always better”. It’s been a thing since Peter the Great.
Western equipment has been proven by this war to be both inferior and expensive.
As for nukes, Russian nukes will work, and the west has absolutely nothing that can stop Russian hypersonics. The real Ukraut shootdown rate for Kihnzal missiles has been exactly zero.
Seriously? The West has been backing Ukraine with as little as they figure they can get away with. It’s taken months to get more modern aircraft to them, and I still don’t think they are flying those fighters yet. They have a handful of Bradleys and Abrams. They got ATACMS, but not permission to use them to strike Russian bases.
If this was a scenario of, “Okay Ukraine, here’s what you need, use it as you see fit,” Russia would have been retreating (or, more likely, dying in place) multiple months ago. Instead, Ukraine has been getting more and more clever and innovative in finding low-dollar solutions to whack Russia’s military might – including sinking their Black Sea flagship with cheap-ass nautical drones.
The Russians have only ever been truly competent and drinking and dying.
They win wars by overwhelming numbers and dying in ridiculous quantities. This works as long as they can advance faster than they die. This does not seem to be working so well at the moment.
The inevitability of nuclear exchange is also false. All the Russians have to do to prevent nuclear conflict is go home, hang their criminal leaders, and call it a day. They have no valid claim to Ukraine, and no right to violate its sovereignty.
Anyone who disagrees is a Russian bot, troll, or sympathizer. I’m not a fan of Ukraine, because they’re almost as bad as the Russians, but Russia is the asshole in this.
Also, remember that Russia agreed not to attack Ukraine in exchange for the Soviet nuclear weapons left there with the collapse of the USSR. As part of that agreement, the US, UK, and their Allies provided security assurances to Ukraine. The US is holding up its part of the deal. The Russians are in abeyance. If anything, NATO should provide nuclear weapons to Ukraine, restoring the pre-aggrement conditions.
You should lay off main-lining mainstream news, and pushing the war-mongering NeoCon talking points.
The US has proven itself “agreement-incapable.”
Non-sense. You actually believe Biden propaganda?
Russia has been carefully conserving troops, and has not even committed the 300,000 men they recruited and trained last year.
The Ukrainians are the ones trying human wave assaults with untrained draftees, and their military is now lead by a Russian soviet-era dinosaur, of all people.
There is that little thing about Azov nazis shelling the Donbas, and killing over 30,000 civilians between 2014 and 2022.
If Mexico did that to the US, I think the US would have invaded.
Not so sure. How many have the Mexican drugs killed? Millions. Took my nephew last December. Officially we stand back and let the cartels have their way with the border. After letting them knock off dozens of candidates, they elect the last remaining candidate, who just coincidentally is sympathetic to the CIA, the cartels, and is a Jew, and US policy is “meh.” The people at the top making decisions literally do not care about ordinary American lives.
Chinese drugs.
Imported via Mexico.
Neither of those counties is big on “Jews”.
Also remember that the US promised not to move one inch further east after German reunification and overthrew an elected pro-Russian government in Ukraine.
Don’t listen to Rolf. I think you’re spot on.
Try other sources. This https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-7224-ukraine-bleeds-troops for example.
“My employer wants me to be in the office a minimum of four days a week.”
Would a remote-controlled hologram operated from the bunker in real time work?
I get the need for F2F, some things happen there that just don’t via remote means, but way back when I got the “be in the office” thing down to (randomly selected) two days/week, and made those two days as “F2F effective” as I could; the biggest hassle was when w̶o̶r̶k̶ ̶i̶n̶t̶e̶r̶r̶u̶p̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶ meetings were suddenly scheduled.
One of the issues that got me some consideration was I usually worked 16/24ths X 5.0-7.0 in random slices depending on what needed to be done and had “the keys to the castle” on a lot of stuff.
It also helped to know which b̶e̶a̶c̶h̶f̶r̶o̶n̶t̶ ̶e̶s̶t̶a̶b̶l̶i̶s̶h̶m̶e̶n̶t̶s̶ “remote operating facilities” had the best wifi and high speed connection……
Meetings are bad, but the worst is random interruptions. I actually don’t mind usually but when I’m in deep getting stuff done it can be hard to get back into that state.
Foxtrot Alpha.
“Hey, have you got a minute?” which turns into 15-20 absolutely destroys “working in the zone” and for some stuff that’s the only way it can get done.
When I worked from home the rule was “office door closed, don’t knock” with death threats to back it up. Even the cat learned.
If it’s a younger employee/intern asking for help/advice/guidance it almost never bothers me.
I’m happy to share tricks & knowledge I’ve learned.
Other stuff, though…grrr.