Confirmation Bias Problem

Quote of the Day

Attackers will very likely use “The Hard Reset” as a guide to “sainthood” where white mass shooters become idolized and labeled as saints. The five criteria required to become a saint include being of white race, conducting a deliberate attack, having motive to kill those who “threaten the white race,” a “score” of killing at least one, and sharing the worldview of white supremacy. Attackers will likely try to meet all this criteria to become saints. Some radicalized individuals planning to attack will likely view the casualty criteria as competition, likely aiming to kill as many as possible, likely to garner influence in the white supremacist community and media attention. Far-right lone actors, influenced by neo-nazi groups and ideologies, will likely conduct attacks, likely aiming at causing chaos and mass casualties.

The Counterterrorism Group
July 7, 2022

I work on a threat intel team. I get it. Threat intelligence work and predictions are hard to get right. But man, for all the “HIGH likelihood”, “ALMOST CERTAINLY”, and, “HIGH PROBABILITY rhetoric, these guys sure missed the mark. Their prediction was eight months ago for things to happen in the next week. Which didn’t happen.

It’s almost as if they have a confirmation bias problem.


8 thoughts on “Confirmation Bias Problem

  1. Their superiors knew their was a “white supremacist” threat. Their subordinates were told to go find it. They went and found it.

    The leadership of NOAA, NSF, etc were sure there is a climate crisis. They fund science grants to characterize the impending climate catastrophe. The meteorology departments of the many universities fall all over themselves to get those grants, and they find that climate crisis. Nobody is funding the academics not to find a crisis that is convenient for authoritarians, and they’re certainly not going to tolerate someone researching in a direction that threatens their ricebowl.

    Same goes for medical research. The Nazis didn’t want their doctors researching treatments into congenital conditions, and preferred euthanasia to improve the purity of their race in the fashionable and progressive eugenics movement of the time. Current medical fashion is that medically transitioning people is good for their mental health and reduces depression, as studies have found (that were certainly sure they would find). None of them want to talk about the statistics that 55% of M-to-F recipients of ‘bottom surgery’ will have constant pain, never be able to experience an orgasm, and have earned a Darwin’s Participation Trophy by being permanently and irreversibly sterilized… don’t think any of that will affect someone’s mental health, or change their likelihood of suicide to get away from the unrelievable pain?

    Government funded research means that The Science™ will always be downstream of the political needs of whoever current has captured the levers of power.

    • Perfectly said Tirno! “The Science”, (any science), always seems to be downstream of funding these days.
      Damn, if you only had the money, we could have your conclusions “peer reviewed.”

  2. Sounds more like the FBI trying to get kids to play their new video game. Then point to all the “White Supremist” and acts of violence there are out there. Failing to say it’s all in the “Meta”, verse of course.
    Instead of calling them saints, they should have called them knights. Real KKK/SS/Proud “FBI” bois /Tiki torch carrying Illuminati, prefer it.
    When I was young there was a commercial on TV of Ajax laundry detergent, “White Knight”, charging on his horse through back yards. Using his lance to zap people laundry pure white. (Everyone used clothes line to dry their clothes back then.)
    Next thing you know. Mad Magazine has Alfred E. Newman as the white knight charging through a ghetto zapping terrified, running, black people, into whites.
    Totally hilarious.
    How far we have fallen.
    But if the FBI wants to find/make white supremists, It might be a basis for a good game to groom them with?

  3. Are we sure that this isn’t just the plot of a “Ripped from the Headlines” movie of the week? This reads like someone took some really bad drugs, ate a copy of Sum of All Fears and then shit a movie pitch.

    I googled the first two names on this tripe and they both look about 12 and are listed as “interns.” The “NORTHCOM Team Lead and Watch Officer Intern,” graduated Fairmont State University in 2022.

    The second person listed her last three jobs as “Task Force Member” of the Anti-Human Trafficking Intelligence Initiative(part time) out of Wilmington, NC.(Five months). A “Counterterrorism Analyst Intern” at this Counterterrorism Group. (7 months) And finally she’s currently a full time “Security Intelligence Analyst” for “Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.” So apparently she is a intel analyst for a sports venue. Is that actually a thing? Is this chick running the facial recognition that that they used to ID some lawyer and kick him out of Madison Square Garden because his law firm is suing MSG on behalf of some dude who fell out of a skybox at a Billy Joel concert?

    Were do we get this garbage? If I wrote this into a story it’d get thrown at my head by every creative writing instructor on the planet. The publisher of Mack Bolan would wipe his ass on the manuscript before mailing it back to me telling me to stop abusing my word processor. Microsoft would resurrect Clippy just to tell me to “PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD STOP WRITING THIS GARBAGE!”

    I couldn’t make this up if I tried.

    • It gets worse. #3 on the list Rhiannon Thomas spent a year at CTG finishing off as the NORTHCOM Team Lead. She’s now a part time sales assistant at MANGO, a clothing brand, a job she’s held since before her internship. She has an MSc in Terrorism, Security, and Policing from University of Leicester and a BSc in Psych from Sheffield Hallam University.

      #4 has a Master’s in International Relations and Business from American University – Kogod School of Business. She spent a year at Beijing Language and Culture University learning Mandarin in between getting her associates in liberal arts at Santa Monica College and getting her BA in International Relations and Affairs at Cal State Long Beach. She’s apparently now the “Specialty Teams Manager” for CTG and has been with them for a year and 7 months.

      #5 is currently “Officer for European and International Relations” for the Terrassa City Council in Catalonia. That sounds like nice work if you can get it. He went to school in Barcelona so I’m not sure but it appears he has something like a Masters degree in International Relations.

      And #6, the last guy on the top line, lists his current employment as “Pasante en el área de Seguridad Urbana” which Google translates into “Intern in the area of ​​Urban Security” in Bogata, Columbia. He’s been there a grand total of 2 months. He appears to have a Bachelors equivalent in Government and International Relations from the External University of Colombia.

      None of these people seem to have ever held gainful employment beyond “sales assistant” or “barista.” Judging by their work histories and their educations, I wouldn’t hire them to walk my dog.

      • If someone wanted to write a formal report on those guys, your research would be a great start.


    • she is a intel analyst for a sports venue. Is that actually a thing?

      Almost for certain, yes. I know of cyber threat analysts at Coinbase, Costco, GoDaddy, Microsoft, Target, telecommunications companies, etc. Some of those do physical security analysis as well.

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