Putin’s next move?

Via “reliable sources” which I am not at liberty to share* the resistance to the war by the Russian people is getting energetic. At least 13 military recruitment offices have been burned down. Police shooting in the air has been failing to to break up protests, and people are burning Putin’s portrait. And an estimated 260,000 men of military age have left the country.

So, what is Putin to do?

This should not come as a surprise:

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West’:

A train operated by the secretive nuclear division and linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence was spotted in central Russia over the weekend heading towards the front line in Ukraine.

The pro-Russian Telegram channel Rybar shared the footage showing the large freight convoy hauling upgraded armoured personnel carriers and other equipment.

Konrad Muzyka, a defence analyst specialising in Ukraine, said the 12th directorate operated a dozen central storage facilities for nuclear weapons.

Is he bluffing?

If he isn’t and pops an mushroom cloud, then what does NATO do? If they don’t have a vigorous response then Putin can annex any piece of ground without a NATO stamp on it, and maybe even non-nuclear possessing NATO countries. And with an energetic response from NATO, then what?

My understanding is that all the war games against Russia with scenarios that result in just one nuke being used result in everything being released.

Prepare appropriately. I want an underground bunker in Antarctica.

* There are open sources for all the information in this paragraph, but my source is a meld/analysis of the open sources.


5 thoughts on “Putin’s next move?

  1. If you start typing 12th main directorate, the suggestions start popping up all over the place regarding a train heading West…

    Seems like quite the opportunity for Ukrainian special op – before it reaches the border.


  2. You think Putin has it bad with the draft. Wait till we do the same thing. Think our recruiters are going to fare any better? This is WWIII. We have to match his numbers. That is if he even decides to drag us into Ukraine. Or if we have to fight in both Ukraine and Taiwan like Biden promised?
    How you going to go to battle in heels that clash with your helmet?
    How many officers you think will get fragged or shot by our own sissy-assed troops?
    260,000? Millennials will knock down the border wall stampeding into Mexico if we start the draft here. (Don’t be surprised if the Mexicans finish the wall for us. As Canada won’t be an option this time.)
    Anyone truly think Biden is going to outmaneuver Putin in a head to head? With China mobilizing?
    Or that Millie and Austin are going to lead us to victory?
    And why nuke Ukraine, the fallout will just kill Russians. If your going nuke, why not go after the only thing propping up Ukraine? And let the fallout be in the Atlantic.
    With no gas Europe is already toast. WWIII is going to suck for us all.
    In the end we’re all going to wish we had a Siberia to move to.
    Remember, Putin and his staff will get executed if they lose.
    Biden and his will expect a promotion. Who do you think will be more motivated?

    • Not only will we do the same thing, we have done the same thing back in the 60s. The numbers who resisted, evaded or just gamed the system dwarf the numbers we are seeing out of Russia.

      I think we have both defined ourselves a Putin apologists for exercising critical thinking and knowing a bit of history.

      I don’t think Putin gets executed if he loses power. Last time this happened at a high level was Beria who actually was a lethal threat to the others. Malenkov, Khrushchev, Gorbachev and Yeltsin got to retire. The difference in incentives is because Putin actually likes the country he rules, unlike *Biden. (I always put the * there to acknowledge that Biden isn’t actually ruling anything but I don’t know who is.)

      • Oh and it will our fellow “conservatives” that rat us out. Go over to Instanpundit and read the comment section in threads on the war. I am over there enough to recognize those who identify as conservatives vs the usual leftist trolls. Their go to argument with people who disagree is Putin-bot. And there are lots of them.

        • Ya, the Biden bitches will always point at anything outside the party line as subversive, Thats just the nature of the beast. The real problem is having enough soldiers for WWIII. And enough internal police to prop up your empirical edicts.
          Government relies on us being law abiding just to function on its best day.
          What happens when half the country decides to act like the mob-robberies one sees on video?
          Or down right attack Biden’s Stasi on sight?
          Rounding up and training the youth communist have been training to be feral for the last 30 years is not going to work out for them.
          How long before BLM started crying about making the black man fight whitey’s war?
          How’s the military going to handle Anitafa members in with the proud boys?
          And only dare handing out ammo and grenades when you get to the front?
          They can call me anything but late for dinner for all I care. Your going to have to show up to shut me up.
          And turning off our electricity only tells you who they are. (Their going to be the only ones with the lights on.)
          Same with your cards. The US government does not stand a chance in all this. And maybe I’m over-thinking it.
          But to me it looks to be done on propose.
          I will die thinking this much stupid in one place has to be someone’s plot.

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