I realize that predictions can be hard. Well, predictions are easy, but making accurate ones is a bit more difficult.

This week, the Chicago teachers union went on strike, turning down a 16% pay increase (4% per year for four years), even though they are one of the most highly compensated districts in the nation, while simultaneously turning in bottom quintile performance. Teachers unions are one of the most rabid pro-Obama groups out there. On the the other side of the dispute is Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s former chief of staff, infamous for hard-nosed, in-your-face negotiation.

In Lybia, the US embassy was attacked and Ambassador Stevens was killed, and I’m now seeing reports that embassy security was being provided by Libyan nationals, who may have helped in his murder, NOT US Marines (the two that were killed there were last second additions when things got violent).

Obama has told Israel to take a flying leap in so many different ways recently it’s not easy to list them all, and it looks like they are getting itchy to pull the trigger on dealing with the Iranian nuke thing.

Prediction: If Obama doesn’t pull some serious magic out of his hat in the next week or so on at least two of these issues, he’s toast. Not just lightly toasted, but burned-to-a-crisp toast. Utterly humiliated. A defeat that will be compared to Carter for the rest of US history. Something that most American’s can’t stand is weakness in a leader, and pretty much all the options he might take on these three issues to appeal to his base will repel the undecided middle. On the other hand, any sort of strong action that might sway the persuadable middle his direction will infuriate much of his base, and do nothing to change minds among the conservative base. The optics are horrible for him no matter which way he goes, and the campaign spots nearly write themselves. Of course, he’s got the Mainstream Media flying air-cover for him, but even they can only do so much, and when it looks like he’s on a failing course they will turn on him to save the liberal ideology (by saying it was the messenger, not the message).

So, barring some actions he has so far shown absolutely no ability to perform, I think we are seeing a major turning point in the election.


15 thoughts on “Toast

  1. I doubt he’s toast. In fact, I believe he has a strong chance of winning a second term.

    First of all, you have *true* independents who still aren’t convinced we’ll be any better off with Romney. Enough people pulling the lever for a third party or just sitting it out = an Obama win.

    Second, approx half the populace is attached to the gov’t teat now, be it welfare, disability, SS, or public employees. While Romney is far from the kind of guy to cut them all off, *they* won’t see it that way because it’s being pumped in their heads that Republicans want them all to starve to death while waging a war on vaginas.

    Finally, go look at the front page of the major newspapers. You’ll find plenty about the new Apple iOS that is being released, but very little on this recent atrocity. Orwell’s Ministry of Truth brought to life via the Legacy Media.

    I’m not convinced this is in the bag.

  2. The left ideology says they have to blame America and Americans for yesterday’s attacks. This was our fault. What that might do to the election is secondary to the ideology they serve.

  3. Joe, where did you hear that they had locals providing security? I’d like to look into that. I hadn’t heard that yet, and just the possibility has me seeing red. Who could possibly think that was a good idea? In a third world hole, where everyone hates us or is afraid of those who do, you’re going to hire some local schmucks to guard US territory and personnel? Really? *stomps off foaming and cursing*

  4. Just in case the stories go down the memory hole, the quotes from those two are:

    From the FOX story: U.S. embassies, particularly in major countries and in unstable or less secure nations, usually have a resident contingent of Marine security guards. Early indications were that there were not at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. A consulate is a branch office in major cities outside the capital. These guards work under the supervision of the senior diplomatic officer at an embassy.

    From the CBS story: He said Stevens, 52, and other officials were moved to a second building – deemed safer – after the initial wave of protests at the consulate compound. According to al-Sharef, members of the Libyan security team seem to have indicated to the protesters the building to which the American officials had been relocated, and that building then came under attack.

  5. The MSG(Marine Secuiry Guard)force primary mission is to protect the classified material within the embassy. All the embassies I supported while in the ME had a local guard force made up of foreign nationals that secured the exterior of the embassy, i.e. they were in charge of the gate access into the embassy grounds proper. I was told by several sources that the US Embassies are the only Embassies that use foreign nations to protect their Embassies.

  6. I’m positive Obama is going to win. In fact, if I were Mitt Romney, I’d bet you $10,000 that Obama is going to win.

    By the way, did you hear that Ryan has started running ads to retain his seat in Congress? That sure doesn’t sound like a winner to me.

  7. A defeat like Carter? I want to see a defeat like MONDALE.
    Even better if he loses his home state.
    Imagine: Chairman Zero with 3 electoral votes. (I’d say zero, but Obama could get caught sexually abusing his daughters with a chainsaw and DC would still vote for him)

  8. His base will accept anything Obama does, as they have done for the entirety of his term as president.
    Guantanamo? Still open.
    Trials for terrorists in civilian courts? Not happening.
    Civil liberties trampled by Republican war legislation? Still underfoot.

    War protests? Where are they? Apparently they were all partisan, and had nothing to do with the actions of the previous administration, since identical actions by this president get a pass.

    The base that Obama relies upon have only one objective – power. They will do anything to get it and to keep it.
    The win by Romney will have to be large, to overcome the other side cheating.

  9. Romney *should* win.

    However, there is the problem of Obama’s propaganda corps aka the Mainstream Media. They are so in the tank for Obama that it is painful to watch. Even with the Libyian and Egyptian debacles, they are jumping on Romney for daring to criticize Obama and not on The One and Hillary for their inept and weak foreign policies.

    The difference between 1979 and now is that back then the press thought Carter a sanctimonious prig which he was. They weren’t afraid to criticize him and his handling of foreign affairs. Contrast that with the kid glove treatment Obama gets from the press. The one saving grace between then and now is that we have many news outlets and the networks don’t control the flow of info like they used to.

  10. Did you ask youself about what (and why) US was doing in Libya?
    Would you like that other goverment then yours was in your country telling you what to do?
    So, it’s not impressive that US are so hated in the rest of the world.
    Came back home e take care your own business…
    That is a happy and safe way to easing going in this life.
    Because of this I love my country, that does not try to impose to the others the way to live theirs lives.
    have fun!

  11. Even with the Libyian and Egyptian debacles, they are jumping on Romney for daring to criticize Obama and not on The One and Hillary for their inept and weak foreign policies.

    And that’s when they cover it at all. Otherwise, it’s Apple’s announcement of the new iPhone (that can finally do what other phones have done for the last 2 years) that’s taking the headlines over the multiple acts of war perpetrated against the US.

    But, hey, as long as the mob gets its bread and circuses, the rest is unimportant, right?

  12. A minor quibble. 4% per year would be > than 16%, assuming that each previous years raise gets figured into the equation when the next years 4% is calculated. It would end up being just under 17%.

  13. RT – Normally the way teachers contracts go in this sort of case would be to use 16% of the current contract as the target (say, $16k for a $100K contract), then divide by 4, to get a $4k per year raise, totaling 16% overall. Doing it your way would confuse far too many of them. I say that as a certified HS math/sci teacher.

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