Quote of the Day
Earthquakes are difficult to forecast but we’ve made great strides with this new model. The update includes more faults, better-characterized land surfaces, and computational advancements in modeling that provide the most detailed view ever of the earthquake risks we face.
January 16, 2024
New map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
When the validity or failure of your model won’t be known for another century or two it is reasonably easy to be confident enough to sell your services and act convincing.
I don’t know if Petersen and company are knowingly unethical, and perhaps they really do have an earthquake model that is worth more than the bits of memory used to store it, but I have my doubts.
I trust this model even less than the climate models. Many of the forces are deep in the earth acting on materials with unmeasurable characteristics over time periods of 1000s of years.
It does match the “gut feel” of what might expect. And that is probably all that is necessary to get paid and become an “expert in the field”.