Quote of the day—STAY FKING HOME @flopperdog

So we’ll lose 100k to Covid and another 100k to self-inflicted dumbass shootings.

STAY FKING HOME @flopperdog
Tweeted on April 1, 2020
[I realize arithmetic, or in many cases even numbers, are not within the domain of knowledge for these people. So, I’ll take care of that for this numbers illiterate.

From the CDC (2018 was the most recent data I found):

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So, assuming a constant population, at that rate it will take over 218 years to achieve the 100k number asserted. Of course the population is almost certainly going to increase instead of remain constant. But, the rate of unintentional firearms deaths have been falling:

image

Assuming a linear* rate of fall that current 0.14 rate will drop to zero about half way through the year 2034 with a rate of 0.132 at the beginning of 2020. The area under that triangle from the beginning of 2020 until it drops to zero at year 2034.625 is 0.965 per 100K of the population. Assuming a rough population of about 280,000,000 that means about 2,700 people will die in the next 14 years due to unintentional firearm deaths before the rate drops to zero.

But, of course, the rate could increase some due to new ownership and potential lack of training. But with 100,000,000+ current owners the “worst” case is that the total number of gun owners increases to something like 200,000,000 adults.

Assuming the worst case, all unintentional firearms deaths are due to new owner gun sales inspired by COVID-19, and their rate of unintentional death by firearm is double the existing population for a few years before they are trained it is still far less than 100,000.

My rough estimate is that this dup (or evil) flopperdog is probably off by something like a factor of 25.

Not bad. I expected worse.—Joe]


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* Poor assumption. It’s probably going to be closer to a decaying exponential but I don’t want to bother doing the curve fitting to find a better model. Besides, I doubt even one out of 1000 anti-gun people understand linear interpolation yet alone curve fitting and integration.

4 thoughts on “Quote of the day—STAY FKING HOME @flopperdog

  1. Regarding suicides, the one thing I see potentially skewing the conclusion is the unemployment rate. Last week 3.3 million people filed for unemployment, this week 6.6 million filed. I can see an increase in suicides if people don’t see the ability to get back to work in the near future. I don’t know what will happen in the future, nor does anyone else, this situation is literally unprecedented.

  2. I expect additional deaths will be due to a lack of standard care (chemo, stints, …). EMT’s in NY are being told not to bring cardiac patients to the ER. And here in WA, we have been told for two weeks not to go to the ER.

    I’m also amazed that I hear that most people staying at home are bored. They just seem to be looking for entertainment. They don’t DIY.

    Don’t they realize that the supply chains are breaking and that MMT will not help to put food on the table? Where are the victory gardens and backyard chickens? Of course, seeds and chickens too are supply chain items and are in short supply. The same goes for anything self-defense and paper products.

    What’s going to be in short supply next week?

    • On supply chains: there was an item on yesterday’s TV news about people finishing their trucker training, but not able to get their license or go to work in CT because the DMV is closed.

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