The Pessimists Were Wrong

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I was just looking back at some things and noticed these comments regarding the California law restricting people to purchasing no more than one gun a month. A three-judge panel ruled 3-0 that it violated the Second Amendment. The consensus among my commentors was that an En Banc panel would find a way to declare the law did not infringe on the right of the people to keep and bear arms:

Shawn on  said:

Goes En Banc. Gun control upheld. Just like all the times before.

Richard on  said:

Shawn has history on his side. At any rate, who the heck buys more than one gun a month. The recently awake?

Archer on June 25, 2025 at 9:27 am said:
I predict Shawn will be proven correct.

The Ninth Circuit does have some pro-Constitution judges on it. I don’t know how this case, Nguyen v. Bonta, managed the moonshot — getting a full panel of them — but I expect California will appeal and the en banc court will reverse the panel and uphold the law.

They’ve upheld full carry bans. They’ve upheld onerously-restrictive permitting schemes. They’ve upheld AWB laws. The “one gun a month” law is only mildly unconstitutional compared to those; it’s an easy win for the State. (As Richard implies, very few people buy more than one gun a month. A little patience and planning will get most people all the guns they need in less than a year, so the Constitutional infringement is very slight. That will be the court’s opinion.)

I’m not discounting the level of “winning” at play here, getting this decision out of the Nutty Ninth Circuit. Major Kudos are absolutely in order to the SAF and FPC. Fantastic job!

But it’s too early to celebrate. History says it’ll be reversed in a week, a month tops.

Rolf on  said:

Generally agree. It will likely get “randomly” sent to a full panel of anti-gun judges and overturned. On the bright side, it’s then possible to appeal to SCOTUS and get it overturned and set aright on a national basis. At the current rate, the American Empire will have long fallen by then, but it will be a great vindication.

As it turns out, I got it right:

Joeon  said:

I think this one will be different. It was just too extreme… even for the ninth circuit.

Another brick in the wall.

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12 thoughts on “The Pessimists Were Wrong”

  1. Shawn and I will be proved right in the end. The Supreme Court needs to start issuing contempt citations against judges that ignore Bruen and the Senate needs to end the blue slip process for confirmation. Neither of these things will happen so the circus will continue.

    • It is now too late for the state to ask for an En Banc hearing. The case is closed. The order is final.

      • So the state will just pass another oppressive law which the court system will fart around with for years

        • They did pass a “three guns in 30 days” law, which became effective April 1, 2026.

          I expect the gun rights groups will leave this unchallenged for a few years. It doesn’t affect many people, and it may become unenforceable with decisions striking down registration and other record keeping.

  2. I’m confused. What happened? I can’t see anything in the comments you quoted or the FPC link you included that tells me any news.

    • On June 26th. 2025, the state requested a 30-day extension to consider requesting an En Banc hearing. On August 14th, with no request from the state, the three panel order went into effect. The case is closed. The statue was permanently stuck down.

      • An unexpected victory, but on an issue that is, practically, not really much of an issue. It’s more symbolic (and the win on that IS nice, of course) in actual practice (as others have pointed out, few people buy more than 1 gun a month, anyway).

        But as the supposed pessimists say (I would call them realists in this case), they’ll just pass another one. The state spends money to pass it and defend it, but private funds are what primarily going into challenging them.

        That is not a recipe for long term success.

        • For various reasons, I almost always bought two at the same time: Having a sale! Overtime paycheck! A gift for a friend! Two sisters in a different state! Rare models!
          Been a LONG time since I bought anything, sigh…

          Two handguns in one day (IIRC) gets a notice sent to ATF.

  3. I am happy to have been proven wrong in this case.

    However, you must admit, history was on the nay-sayers’ side in the Nutty Ninth Circus.

    Hopefully this is the first of many to restore Constitutional sanity.

    • Indeed. I do not mind being proven wrong in the right direction. Gives me hope for the world in my cynical old heart.

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