The Oregon Department of Emergency Management (OEM) states there is about a 37 percent chance that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 or greater within the next 50 years.
Robert Ezelle, the director of Washington state‘s emergency management division, said: ‘It’s going to be the worst natural disaster in our country’s history.’
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Large earthquakes produced by these faults would likely cause mass property destruction, cut off access to certain neighborhoods and lead to numerous injuries and even deaths.
‘One would expect the power to be down, natural gas lines to be broken, maybe water and sewer lines to be broken,’ Tobin said.
He told NBC News that if a major quake were to hit the Cascadia shaking would last five minutes, but tsunami waves would batter the coast for 10 hours.
Roads and bridges would be destroyed, along with some 620,000 buildings and about 100 hospitals and 2,000 schools.
‘We’re unprepared,’ Ezelle said, noting that residents would have to take care of each other due to Washington officials say they’d have to fend for themselves for at least two weeks.
As seen in the map above, Barb and I live on the edge of the red and solidly in the orange.
Tsunamis will form in the lakes in the area too. The quakes encourage the steep hills to provide the dirt to slide into the water and create large waves. And, of course, all those hills with lake views are covered with expensive homes.
The bunker is a great plan, but not knowing when the ‘big one’ hits will likely leave you with your bunker unoccupied and you needing to travel there over roads, bridges, etc that are impassable. An underground bunker(not in a tsunami zone) in your current back yard may be a better idea.
Besides, construction of a backyard bunker is sure to entertain neighbors and generate interest from local bureaucrats.
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Barb’s house does not have a large enough backyard. It is on the side of a hill that I am concerned may slide. And houses in the Seattle area almost never have basements for a reason.
I would rather not live here. The high cost of living, the high crime rate, and oppressive gun laws also contribute to the desire.
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Let’s not forget Mounts Baker, Hood, Rainier, St. Helens, et al.
“residents would have to take care of each other due to Washington officials” That, and a lack of editing.
” 620,000 buildings and about 100 hospitals and 2,000 schools.” “We’re unprepared,’ Ezelle said
And how do you prepare for essentially losing everything? Jeez.
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Well, depending on exactly where your underground bunker will be in Idaho you might have some seismic activity there, too. Here’s the US Geological Survey map of seismic hazard areas ranked by anticipated peak ground accelerations:
The maps are intended to provide guidance for seismic resistance of structures and not a prediction of activity.
There are some “hot spots” in Idaho up near Challis and Salmon, and I recall lots of hot springs on the road from there to Stanley indicating some seismic activity. Looks like the area up around where you hold the Boomershoot might shake a little, but not enough to hurt a rifle range.
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No surprise to me. There is a well-documented history of big tsunamis on the Washington & Oregan coasts.
Most interesting to me is the oral history of the local tribes that talk of battles between mythical land and sea beasts when the sea beasts laid waste to the land.
In our very science-based world, we tend to overlook hidden truths in the myths of the past.
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Years ago I read a King County study that basically said “infrastructure will be crushed. You will lose water lines, gas lines, sewer lines, power lines, local transportation lines with passes and major bridges down and roads broken, the airport (built on fill) will be helicopter only, shipping to dockyard areas (built on fill) will be disrupted, and you can expect to be on your own for six weeks before major problems and central lines are repaired or cleared, longer for smaller peripheral stuff.” Most people have nowhere near six weeks worth of supplies. For many, all they have in their all-electric house is a bit of left-over chinese take-out and a small collection of condiments.
When I had breakfast with my state rep earlier this month, we touched on this (among a lot of other things). His comment on this was a variation of the parasite’s reply “if the big one hits, I’m heading to your place!” Don’t expect a lot of useful help from WA’s liberal government if it happens.
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It sounds like Seattle is a bit like San Francisco in 1906.
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Yes, but in some ways worse. We have a lot more people, and a high number of people very dependent on high-tech everything working. Our population is ~8x larger, and we have fewer port areas that might survive, magnifying the logistical problems with recovery. We have a lot of the highly populated areas built on fill or old glacial moraines that will tend to liquefaction and slumping / downslope shifting under prolonged shaking, especially in the wet seasons. The weather here tends to be mild, but most people don’t have even basic camping gear, or know elementary field sanitation procedures, so the available surface water in many area will become contaminated within two weeks.
This place shuts down and hardship sets in within two days for some when we get a couple inches of snow, and based on the Covid panic and toilet-paper riots of 2020 I do not expect rational and restrained behavior from most people once the realization sets in that the first few hours and days of recovery will be the easy part.
I need to move sooner rather than later. ID is looking better all the time, but we shall see what the Trump admin brings to WA state… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY_MqmxP2a0
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Sorry, this post should have been below.
Absolutely, trauma like that will shove many people right over the deep end. Seen it happen a dozen times.
But, if you’re an enterprising sort, set up an off grid power system and a star link internet connection before hand?
(Could be as easy as a steel pipe in the fire steam generator with a car alternator, and a couple of batteries with power inverter.)
Just think how valuable you will be just sending “I’m/were OK messages to the whole world for folks, and helping coordinate relieve efforts?
One could charge good money for just having a WIFI hot spot.
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I would anticipate the failure of the earth fill dams that provide much of King and Snohomish County water supplies. Chester Morse, Tolt, and Spade Lake would not likely survive prolonged, high level ground motion.
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The Cascadia fault is a big one. And if it does a full rip like it did in 1700? With a tsunami big enough to damage Japan.
Sorry, they won’t be turning the lights back on in 6 weeks.
And no one will be able to marshal the resources necessary to fix the place in a year or better.
And that’s not just the Seattle area. That’s Medford, Or. to Vancouver Island. 7.0 or better for 6 to10 mins.
No one will have enough food, ammo, and hard frenz. As it will probably collapse the US economy also.
But hey, were Americans, we can rebuild anything.
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Also of note are the aftershocks. Which will continue for 6mos. to a year or better. Some will be sizable.
The best prepared will have chainsaws, gas & oil. and tarps ready for temporary shelter. A 50lb. box of 16d (duplex) nails. Several rolls of rebar tie wire. (duct tape around the outside of the roll of tie wire, leaving a hole up through the center. Then reach in and pull the wire up through the hole from the center.. That way it doesn’t get all twisted up and ruined from the outside.)
And a stack of 2x4x16′ out behind the shed.
One can build a shelter and get a fire going in nothing flat with these items and a few basic tools.
The best shape is a tepee. Simple, quick, easy and comfortable. And won’t get shaken down on your head.
Get fishing equipment in abundance while you still can. (Gives marginal people something useful to do.)
And one of the most important things is to remember is really bad times bring out the best in a lot of people. Stand ready to show people what they need to do. And they will. Be ready to help them help themselves.
Americans are the most generous and hardworking people on the face of the earth.
And remember, help will be on the way. But it will be slow in coming.
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Americans are great. However, the Seattle area is now minority white among working-age adults. Huge number of foreigners. Only about 40% of kids are heritage Americans. I expect it would be lots of pulling together at first, but once it’s clear that help isn’t imminent and the power to recharge the phones goes away, it will more likely than not degenerate quickly. I pray it won’t, but not optimistic. Help will be further away and harder to bring in that from the Helene flooding or the CA wildfires.
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With that wide spread of damage, recharging your phone won’t make any difference for most people. There will not be a live tower to connect to. You will need a satellite connection.
It is available through T-Mobile even if your cell provider is Verizon or AT&T. Currently, it is only text messaging. Eventually, data and voice will also be available via satellite.
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Yup, even a Zoleo, Garmin Inreach, and things like that will be invaluable to let the outside world know what’s going on the ground.
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It’s a psychology thing. Far too many people around here are digital addicts. I can see the withdrawal symptoms starting on some of them at school after a single period. They need their fix. It’ll be like two million addicts going through cold-turkey detox while starving, dehydrated, dirty, and cold, while cut off from most of their friends and supports. The effective isolation will be hard on many of them. Once comms fail, the desperation and panic will start to set in, especially among those with zero preparations. Some will just shut down and withdraw, some will self-delete, a few will turn Reaver, some will shine and simply go about the business of survival. Those who freak out will be… interesting to deal with.
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Not an if…but a when. And historically the “big one” on that fault is statistically overdue. Smart people would be prepared for this coming disaster. Most people aren’t smart. Therefore most of the survivors from this coming blockbuster plot will become a danger to everyone who IS prepared.
The bunker is a great plan, but not knowing when the ‘big one’ hits will likely leave you with your bunker unoccupied and you needing to travel there over roads, bridges, etc that are impassable. An underground bunker(not in a tsunami zone) in your current back yard may be a better idea.
Besides, construction of a backyard bunker is sure to entertain neighbors and generate interest from local bureaucrats.
Barb’s house does not have a large enough backyard. It is on the side of a hill that I am concerned may slide. And houses in the Seattle area almost never have basements for a reason.
I would rather not live here. The high cost of living, the high crime rate, and oppressive gun laws also contribute to the desire.
Let’s not forget Mounts Baker, Hood, Rainier, St. Helens, et al.
“residents would have to take care of each other due to Washington officials” That, and a lack of editing.
” 620,000 buildings and about 100 hospitals and 2,000 schools.” “We’re unprepared,’ Ezelle said
And how do you prepare for essentially losing everything? Jeez.
Well, depending on exactly where your underground bunker will be in Idaho you might have some seismic activity there, too. Here’s the US Geological Survey map of seismic hazard areas ranked by anticipated peak ground accelerations:
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/national-seismic-hazard-model
The maps are intended to provide guidance for seismic resistance of structures and not a prediction of activity.
There are some “hot spots” in Idaho up near Challis and Salmon, and I recall lots of hot springs on the road from there to Stanley indicating some seismic activity. Looks like the area up around where you hold the Boomershoot might shake a little, but not enough to hurt a rifle range.
No surprise to me. There is a well-documented history of big tsunamis on the Washington & Oregan coasts.
Most interesting to me is the oral history of the local tribes that talk of battles between mythical land and sea beasts when the sea beasts laid waste to the land.
In our very science-based world, we tend to overlook hidden truths in the myths of the past.
Years ago I read a King County study that basically said “infrastructure will be crushed. You will lose water lines, gas lines, sewer lines, power lines, local transportation lines with passes and major bridges down and roads broken, the airport (built on fill) will be helicopter only, shipping to dockyard areas (built on fill) will be disrupted, and you can expect to be on your own for six weeks before major problems and central lines are repaired or cleared, longer for smaller peripheral stuff.” Most people have nowhere near six weeks worth of supplies. For many, all they have in their all-electric house is a bit of left-over chinese take-out and a small collection of condiments.
When I had breakfast with my state rep earlier this month, we touched on this (among a lot of other things). His comment on this was a variation of the parasite’s reply “if the big one hits, I’m heading to your place!” Don’t expect a lot of useful help from WA’s liberal government if it happens.
It sounds like Seattle is a bit like San Francisco in 1906.
Yes, but in some ways worse. We have a lot more people, and a high number of people very dependent on high-tech everything working. Our population is ~8x larger, and we have fewer port areas that might survive, magnifying the logistical problems with recovery. We have a lot of the highly populated areas built on fill or old glacial moraines that will tend to liquefaction and slumping / downslope shifting under prolonged shaking, especially in the wet seasons. The weather here tends to be mild, but most people don’t have even basic camping gear, or know elementary field sanitation procedures, so the available surface water in many area will become contaminated within two weeks.
This place shuts down and hardship sets in within two days for some when we get a couple inches of snow, and based on the Covid panic and toilet-paper riots of 2020 I do not expect rational and restrained behavior from most people once the realization sets in that the first few hours and days of recovery will be the easy part.
I need to move sooner rather than later. ID is looking better all the time, but we shall see what the Trump admin brings to WA state… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY_MqmxP2a0
Sorry, this post should have been below.
Absolutely, trauma like that will shove many people right over the deep end. Seen it happen a dozen times.
But, if you’re an enterprising sort, set up an off grid power system and a star link internet connection before hand?
(Could be as easy as a steel pipe in the fire steam generator with a car alternator, and a couple of batteries with power inverter.)
Just think how valuable you will be just sending “I’m/were OK messages to the whole world for folks, and helping coordinate relieve efforts?
One could charge good money for just having a WIFI hot spot.
I would anticipate the failure of the earth fill dams that provide much of King and Snohomish County water supplies. Chester Morse, Tolt, and Spade Lake would not likely survive prolonged, high level ground motion.
The Cascadia fault is a big one. And if it does a full rip like it did in 1700? With a tsunami big enough to damage Japan.
Sorry, they won’t be turning the lights back on in 6 weeks.
And no one will be able to marshal the resources necessary to fix the place in a year or better.
And that’s not just the Seattle area. That’s Medford, Or. to Vancouver Island. 7.0 or better for 6 to10 mins.
No one will have enough food, ammo, and hard frenz. As it will probably collapse the US economy also.
But hey, were Americans, we can rebuild anything.
Also of note are the aftershocks. Which will continue for 6mos. to a year or better. Some will be sizable.
The best prepared will have chainsaws, gas & oil. and tarps ready for temporary shelter. A 50lb. box of 16d (duplex) nails. Several rolls of rebar tie wire. (duct tape around the outside of the roll of tie wire, leaving a hole up through the center. Then reach in and pull the wire up through the hole from the center.. That way it doesn’t get all twisted up and ruined from the outside.)
And a stack of 2x4x16′ out behind the shed.
One can build a shelter and get a fire going in nothing flat with these items and a few basic tools.
The best shape is a tepee. Simple, quick, easy and comfortable. And won’t get shaken down on your head.
Get fishing equipment in abundance while you still can. (Gives marginal people something useful to do.)
And one of the most important things is to remember is really bad times bring out the best in a lot of people. Stand ready to show people what they need to do. And they will. Be ready to help them help themselves.
Americans are the most generous and hardworking people on the face of the earth.
And remember, help will be on the way. But it will be slow in coming.
Americans are great. However, the Seattle area is now minority white among working-age adults. Huge number of foreigners. Only about 40% of kids are heritage Americans. I expect it would be lots of pulling together at first, but once it’s clear that help isn’t imminent and the power to recharge the phones goes away, it will more likely than not degenerate quickly. I pray it won’t, but not optimistic. Help will be further away and harder to bring in that from the Helene flooding or the CA wildfires.
With that wide spread of damage, recharging your phone won’t make any difference for most people. There will not be a live tower to connect to. You will need a satellite connection.
Consider signing up for this: https://www.t-mobile.com/coverage/satellite-phone-service.
It is available through T-Mobile even if your cell provider is Verizon or AT&T. Currently, it is only text messaging. Eventually, data and voice will also be available via satellite.
Yup, even a Zoleo, Garmin Inreach, and things like that will be invaluable to let the outside world know what’s going on the ground.
It’s a psychology thing. Far too many people around here are digital addicts. I can see the withdrawal symptoms starting on some of them at school after a single period. They need their fix. It’ll be like two million addicts going through cold-turkey detox while starving, dehydrated, dirty, and cold, while cut off from most of their friends and supports. The effective isolation will be hard on many of them. Once comms fail, the desperation and panic will start to set in, especially among those with zero preparations. Some will just shut down and withdraw, some will self-delete, a few will turn Reaver, some will shine and simply go about the business of survival. Those who freak out will be… interesting to deal with.
Not an if…but a when. And historically the “big one” on that fault is statistically overdue. Smart people would be prepared for this coming disaster. Most people aren’t smart. Therefore most of the survivors from this coming blockbuster plot will become a danger to everyone who IS prepared.