How to game The Black Death

Now that Analog Kid has posted the results I’ll explain how I was going to “game” the October postal rifle match Analog Kid called “The Black Death”.  Because you can shoot the target as many times as you want what I was going to do was put up ten targets at 200 yards.  Then:

  1. Take one shot at each of the smallest, 0.5″, squares.  With no wind I can connect with a 0.5″ square at 200 yards about 48% of the time as predicted by Modern Ballistics.  With 10 shots I should hit five of them.
  2. On the five targets I hit the 0.5″ square on I would shoot at the 0.75″ inch square.  The odds of touching a 0.75″ square is predicted to be 63%.  With five shots I should hit three of them.
  3. On the three targets I hit the 0.75″ square I would shoot at the 1.0″ target.  The odds of touching a 1.0″ square is predicted to be 75%.  With three shots I should hit two of them.
  4. On the two targets I hit the 1.0 target I would shoot at the 1.25″ target.  The odds of touching a 1.25″ square is predicted to be 83%.  With two shots I should hit one of them.
  5. On that target I would shoot the rest of the squares with the odds of 90%, 96%, 99%, 99.8%, and 99.99% of hitting the 1.5″, 2.0″, 2.5″, 3.0″, and 3.5″ targets.  The odds of connecting on all of them is predicted to be 85%.

So…with 25 shots I have an 85% chance of creating a clean target at 200 yards.  With 50 shots I have a 98% chance of doing it.

Unfortunately I procrastinated too much and didn’t make time to get out to the range until it was raining and almost dark.

1 thought on “How to game The Black Death

  1. 50 shots? That’s a lot of ammo, you know. I took 24 shots and scored 90/100.

    But hey, you’d have been OK to do that as it is well within the rules.

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