COVID19 in Iran

From a reliable source, we have some plausibly good data and some speculation:

A coworker is an Iranian immigrant. She says her siblings are in the medical field back home in Iran, and the situation there is vastly worse than is being officially reported. The leaders didn’t want to disrupt the anniversary of the revolution, so they pretended there was no problem, causing it to be spread rapidly across the nation during the mass gatherings and official celebrations, where close (face-proximity-to-face) greetings are common, and it spread like wildfire. Her sibling’s estimate is over a million are infected just in Iran. (Considering the viral video of the imam “blessing” water bottles by spitting in them, and other personal hygiene practices that are epidemic-friendly, it’s not an impossible number).

Assuming the fatality rate of~2% is correct, that’s 20k dead just in Iran…. so far. Considering it hits the elderly and infirm the hardest, it might be the “magic bullet” that takes out the entire leadership group so they can be replaced, which would likely be a good thing. But on a human tragedy scale of things, if it hits a nation with a failing healthcare system harder than two percent, it’s a major tragic event.

We live in interesting times.

6 thoughts on “COVID19 in Iran

  1. I’m rereading Ringo’s The Last Centurion

    Spooky on similarities to current events.

  2. I recall reading in Reason some 25 years ago that when a disease kills or debilitates only 5% of a population, all of its formal institutions are at risk of collapse.

    • It can depend greatly on which 5% are the dead ones. If the elderly, infirm, and very young are the only ones, it’s a bummer but things go on. If it’s older children (hard to “just have more” and replace them), the mature and healthy, then yeah, you are in for a hard time.

  3. I’ve seen a little bit of discussion on what this might mean for the annual Haj — which brings millions of muslims from all over the world to Mecca.

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