Lakewood Massacre by the numbers

As I mentioned last week I created an IPSC stage based on the Lakewood shooting of four police officers. Yesterday the Lewiston Pistol Club shot that stage.

The results are as follows. Columns 2, 3, and 4 are the total times for the shooter to draw and shoot all their rounds. These were four rounds for the bad guy and six rounds for the cop and Barista. The last two columns were the estimated time the shooter (cop or Barista) had left before the last cop had been shot. This estimate was based upon the cop being able to get off his first shot in 1.5 S after the first shot of the bad guy and that the bad guy took a 1.5 seconds to get his first shot off. Similarly for the Barista except an assumption that they were able to get off their first shot in 1.0 S (they were much closer to the bad guy than the sitting cop was).

In other words the timeline is assumed to be:

At time t = 0.0 S the bad guy starts to draw his gun.
At time t = 1.5 S the bad guy fires his first shot.
At time t = 2.5 S the barista fires his/her first shot.
At time t = 3.0 S the cop fires his/her first shot.

If the bad guys last shot (column two below) is after the cop/Barista’s first shot then one or more cops are assumed to live. The more time in the last two columns the more lives saved.

Shooter Bad Guy Cop Barista   Cop (1.5 S) Barista (1.0 S)
Ernest 3.44 3.34 2.51   0.44 0.94
Roxanna 4.02 3.16 2.43   1.02 1.52
Joe D. (L10) 2.47 2.56 1.95   (0.53) (0.03)
Joe D. (SS) 2.77 4.82 1.98   (0.23) 0.27
Tim 2.58 2.17 3.46   (0.42) 0.08
John 8.91 3.04 2.63   5.91 6.41
Joe H 5.54 2.71 1.77   2.54 3.04
Phillip 4.91 4.54 2.29   1.91 2.41
Adam 2.97 2.16 1.29   (0.03) 0.47
Bill 3.16 4.1 2.57   0.16 0.66
Eric 10.8 3.27 3.72   7.80 8.30
Mike 4.15 3.51 2.7   1.15 1.65
Roger (auto) 3.17 3.77 2.59   0.17 0.67
Roger (revo) 3.23 3.37 3.18   0.23 0.73
Don 4.13 2.87 2.11   1.13 1.63
             
Min: 2.47 2.16 1.29   (0.53) (0.03)
Max: 10.80 4.82 3.72   7.80 8.30
Mean: 4.42 3.29 2.48   1.42 1.92

To really do the numbers correctly we would need the first shot time of each of the shooters. I did get a few of those numbers but didn’t bother to write them down. They were approximately as assumed above.

One of the interesting results was that there were about five to ten “shoot thrus” of the bad guy by the Barista (out of 90 shots fired by the competitors) but all of them hit the body armor of the cops.

The bottom line is that if you were the last cop to be shot at then you had at best a 75% chance of survival. But if the Barista was packing and “on her toes” then unless the bad guy were a top notch shooter then one and probably two of the cops would have lived.

4 thoughts on “Lakewood Massacre by the numbers

  1. ??? I’m confused by your chart and how you set this match up. I had to go back and read the original scenario (the one you linked to) to remember what happened in the original gun fight.

    The bad guy shot all four cops in the head. The last cop shot the bad guy twice but they were body shots and didn’t stop him. Did the match require similar shot placement? (Only head shots counted?)

  2. @ubu52, The info is all in the stage description. But you probably don’t know how to interpret everything in it. Black on a target means “hard cover”. In other words hits in these areas are considered misses. If you look at the first string in the stage description you will see all four targets have black on all but the head and neck area.

    A shot in the abdomen considered a “C” or “D” hit in this game and is of poor value. The hits in our game by the “cop” and “barista” were almost all in the “lower A zone” (center upper chest area).

    Does that answer all your questions?

  3. I was going to bring up the issue of having the barista armed. In that case, there is the barista, and likely at least one still functioning cop, engaging the bad guy at the same time. Now you have a totally different dynamic, and all attempts to predict an outcome are wild speculation.

    If you really want to try gaming this out, use all real people and paintball guns, Joe. Static verses dynamic targets and all. Even that would be difficult at best, as the element of surprise is hard to even approximate when you have people at a shooting range who’ve come specifically to have a shootout.

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