He has a time machine

On August 5th, 2015 Scott Adams, the Dilbert cartoonist, wrote How Trump Becomes President. That’s right, 15 months before yesterday’s election.

Less than a week before the election he said:

I predict Trump wins in a landslide.

This was even when almost all polls were telling us Hillary was going to win. The polls continued this claim to the morning of the election. The polls, built and conducted by hundreds, if not thousands, of extremely experienced political observers, mathematicians, and pollsters got it wrong. They couldn’t see the future a few hours ahead of time as well as some guy who makes his living drawing cartoons about engineers and pointy haired bosses did 15 months prior to the event.

Trump, who had never held a political office or been in the military had to defeat, what was it, 16 republican candidates for the nomination? Then he had to defeat whoever the democrats threw at him in the general election. That first point, alone, is unheard of in this country.

For Scott Adams to successfully make this prediction one has to believe he has either, hereto unknown to mankind, god-like political insight or that he has a time machine he isn’t telling us about.

Occam’s razor says he has a time machine.

Intellectual Yet Idiot

From ZeroHedge comes this Nassim Taleb quote.

The IYI pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited. He thinks people should act according to their best interests and he knows their interests, particularly if they are “red necks” or English non-crisp-vowel class who voted for Brexit. When Plebeians do something that makes sense to them, but not to him, the IYI uses the term “uneducated”. What we generally call participation in the political process, he calls by two distinct designations: “democracy” when it fits the IYI, and “populism” when the plebeians dare voting in a way that contradicts his preferences. While rich people believe in one tax dollar one vote, more humanistic ones in one man one vote, Monsanto in one lobbyist one vote, the IYI believes in one Ivy League degree one-vote, with some equivalence for foreign elite schools, and PhDs as these are needed in the club.”

Yep. Pretty much.  Those on the left celebrate diversity, as long as it means different flavors of leftism. They celebrate tolerance, as long as it’s the right tolerating the left. They celebrate inclusion, as long as it means including the left. They can gloat and say “I won!”, but the right is asked to “play nice” when they win. The left calls for free speech, as long as it is left-wing speech. The left calls for “safe spaces” for themselves, but also demand access to anyplace someone on the right wishes to be left alone in peace. The left calls their opponents bigoted, deplorable, hate-filled, narrow-minded, etc., but that’s just projection; they are blinded by their own bigotry, hate, and narrow-minded view of things.

But frankly, I don’t expect there to be a lot of self-reflection by those on the left; I expect tantrums, tears, and terrorism. They think “the public” is wrong; they will miss the warning the deplorable masses are sending them that it’s the elites that are going the wrong way.

Quote of the day—Scott Adams

On election day, should Trump win as I predict, I ask for Trump supporters to stay cool when the predictable riots erupt. And keep in mind that if you vote for Trump, you own it. If you aren’t helping him get it right after he wins, you haven’t done enough. Trump is a group-participation president by design. He is directly asking for voters’ help in “draining the swamp.” In the short run, the best way to help Trump is by avoiding trouble on election day and by reassuring Clinton voters that you have always been on their side as Americans. Then act that way.

The fight ends Tuesday. After that, let’s try to be useful. No matter what happens.

Scott Adams
November 6, 2016
I Don’t Want a Government Job
[I have nothing to add.—Joe]

The one up-side to a Trump win

I had not thought of this.

I would have thought that they’d have learned from other actors who’d promised to leave us if so-and-so won in previous elections, and then never made good on it. Credibility is apparently not highly regarded among entertainers.

A mass exodus of entertainers would not break my heart. I estimate that the number who actually leave the U.S. and change citizenship over this will be approximately zero, however. Instead of “Let My People Go!” I’m thinking “Leave me alone already. Go, and quit yer damned yappin'”.

To think of the number of hours of my life (to say nothing of the dollars) that have been wasted watching stupid movies, stupid TV, and listening to stupid music…

I wonder if I could find a court somewhere, to take my case of liability for loss-of-productivity against the entertainment industry. Such would be stupid of course, but less so than some of the blather that comes out of the mouths of entertainers.

Trump is certainly no prize, and may turn out to be a disaster. That’ll be hung on our shoulders as American patriots I suppose, though were not the ones who supported the New York Progressive.

Overheard near my desk

Brett: I voted for the Disney party.

Joe: A lot of people did whether they realized it or not.

Brett: Stop that! [Wheeze, wheeze.] I won’t be able to breath.

Election day

Weird, weird election cycle. The stories are worthy of a Matthew Bracken or Dan Brown novel. I’ve got pages of links about voting “irregularities,” and a lot of them include electronic voting machines changing the presidential vote on a “straight R party ticket” to Clinton. None of them involve an irregularity going the other way. Not one. Hmmm.

Lots of shenanigans. Honest voting is only possible if both major parties actually want it enough to do what is necessary for it. Neither side apparently does, though for different reasons. Policy preferences make no difference if there are not honest elections to hold the elected accountable. A nation with no border and no common culture or ideas will never have honest elections, because at least one side will always try to take power by corrupting the election process at some point when power is within the margin of fraud. Here’s a few links to peruse (not all of them, just the fraction I decided to grab from time to time): Continue reading

#ClimaxForClinton

In the light of the news that Hillary Clinton went to “Orgy Island” on the “Lolita Express” at least six times I find this tweet from Jenny Block very telling about those who support Clinton for president:

Female orgasm’s the most powerful force in the world. Don’t forget to Climax for Clinton today! Let me know you did with #ClimaxForClinton !

I don’t have a problem with consenting adults doing pretty much whatever they want in their bedrooms, or on an island, but the reports are that many of the participants on the island were not adults and some of the adults were not consenting.

But almost as disturbing is that Ms. Block somehow thinks orgasms are applicable to a presidential election.

The Anonymous Conservative will claim this is a validation of r/K theory.

Quote of the day—Michael Krieger

I want to take a quick moment to discuss his most meaningful insight, which is the idea that “political systems scale poorly.” This is hugely important, because as the current status quo system collapses, many of us in the Western world will be presented with an incredible opportunity to do things completely different.

Michael Krieger
November 6, 2016
Here’s What Happened When a Hillary Supporting MIT Professor Decided to Analyze Her Emails…
[Communism works well enough for a family unit and maybe even a small tribe. Democracy works for somewhat larger groups. Republics work for even larger groups. Republics with strong minority rights work for still larger groups.  But it should be obvious by now that we haven’t recently field tested a particularly good political system for large populations with diverse cultures and large geographical areas. Krieger suggests something that showed considerable promise in earlier tests and should be reevaluated.

If it’s not obvious to you then a civil war may be in our future and you will be enlightened.—Joe]

Jews in the attic example

Via email Bob Reynolds points out:

Here’s one for the “Jews in the attic” category: http://komonews.com/news/local/king-county-using-grocery-store-data-to-target-pet-owners

From the article:

“This is not King County going and grabbing this data, you know, big brother watching what you buy at the grocery store,” said Satterfield.

Instead, the county said they pay the company who pays stores such as Safeway and QFC for access to customer data contained in every one of those reward card swipes.

Satterfield seems to think that paying someone to do it for you means you are “not doing it”.

From my Jews in the Attic Test web page we have an example which predicts the result Bob points out:

Elimination or severe restriction of anonymous financial transactions.  The purchase of food and other supplies for your “Jews in the attic” would show up in the records as being excessive compared to what your needs were.

Predictions

Time to make your predictions. You might want to try this tool, what would it take, to get totals. My take is this: Continue reading

Quote of the day—Middle Class Warrior ‏@ZeitgeistGhost

So is it an inability to get or keep an erection that makes u compensate by being a gun nut @MarkAWebster1? u too @CommodusLucius

Middle Class Warrior ‏@ZeitgeistGhost
Tweeted on February 13, 2016
[It’s another Markley’s Law Monday! Via a tweet from Linoge.—Joe]

When do the F/X start?

How should a person feel on the day he wakes up in a Dan Brown novel? Especially to realize he is not the hero, but rather just one of the many expendable pieces of background collateral damage to make the finale more exciting? And you don’t know if he’s planning on writing a sequel or not? Or even what page of the story you are on?
Continue reading

Masterful logic

Barb: (Somewhat sheepishly) I ate a bunch of snacks this afternoon.

Joe: That’s okay. I finished off the cookies Kim gave me. I figured they were making me fat so I had to get rid of them.

Barb: Masterful logic!

Guns and crime in England

I frequently want to look up certain things about guns and crime in England that I vaguely remember and I have trouble finding things I thought were fairly well documented.

The other day I found FIREARM CONTROLS IN BRITAIN PART I THE HISTORY OF FIREARMS CONTROLS IN GREAT BRITAIN EARLY LEGISLATION and decided to blog about it to make it easier for me (and perhaps others) to find in the future. I have a link to this post on my “Important posts” page for easy reference in the future.

Here are some important points from the UK Parliament Publications linked to above. The most important parts are bolded.

  • Early English legislation relating to firearms was concerned only with the duty of the citizen to arm himself for the defence of the realm and for the maintenance of order.
  • Until the start of the 20th century, therefore, the right to keep arms was vigorously upheld by Parliament and all attempts at legislation to restrict arms generally or firearms in particular failed completely.
  • The Pistols Act of 1903 was the first piece of legislation to attempt some control on pistols. It required only that a prospective purchaser provide proof that he held a gun licence available on demand at a post office, or that he was a householder, or was to proceed abroad.
  • During the early part of this century anyone, respectable citizen, criminal or lunatic, could walk into a gunshop and buy any firearm he wanted.
  • The 1988 Act had many different effects. The Home Office failed to produce a single case in which self loading rifles had been used in crime other than the Hungerford incident. In that case, the fact that the rifle was self loading was of no significance because the rate at which shots were actually fired was within the capability of any firearm including the most simple single shot weapon.
  • Countries all require a permit of some sort to acquire a handgun, but in general these are much more easily obtained than they were in this country….Single and double barrel shotguns will remain completely uncontrolled and, as now, will be freely sold in gunshops and even supermarkets.

In regards to the Dunblane atrocity:

  • The Government of the day rapidly appointed Lord Cullen to head an inquiry and asked that judgement be delayed until he had reported.
  • The Labour Party in opposition took an entirely different approach and rapidly produced a 15 page submission to Lord Cullen
  • It is clear that those who prepared the submission sought no professional assistance in producing this document and that they did not consult with the shooting community. It seems that they did not regard the matter as sufficiently important to warrant extensive research.
  • The document displays a complete unawareness of the nature and economic value of shooting sports in general or of pistol shooting in particular.
  • The Labour submission also demonstrated an incomplete knowledge of the safeguards already in place in firearms legislation and of the many obstacles placed in the way of a person wishing to hold a firearm certificate. They noted the increase in reported crime involving firearms, though their analysis of the trend was flawed and failed to even attempt to correlate the reduction in legally held firearms and changes in rates of armed crime.
  • then the Labour submission turned to the extremely complex question of international comparisons, the researchers failed to realise that published statistics are not comparable and quoted conclusions from carefully selected works that have not stood up to even modest examination of their reliability.
  • On the basis of this flimsy and entirely unreliable evidence, the Labour Party suggested a whole raft of reforms of firearms legislation, including many which have civil liberties implications. They proposed, for example, that chief constables should have absolute discretion to refuse any application and should not be required to give reasons for doing so (Para 32). They conceded that a Star Chamber system might further consider the chief constable’s decision in some cases, though the applicant would not be told why the decision had been taken.
  • This mass of law was based on intrinsically flawed panic legislation of 1920. It has been added to by one panic measure after another. It has never been the subject of rational consideration. The principles which should apply to all legislation are lost. No-one has ever stated a precise objective for the legislation or indicated how it will be measured against that objective to see whether or not it is working.

Guns, crime, and the misuse of statistics:

  • There can be no system of measuring the number of illegally held firearms and estimates made vary considerably. Some commentators have suggested a figure of four million illegal firearms in circulation in Britain. Bearing in mind tht almost one million illegally held firearms have been surrendered to, or confiscated by, the police since the end of World War II and that the number of firearms available for use in crime does not seem to have diminished, it seems reasonable to suggest that the number of illegal firearms cannot fall far short of the total number legally held.
  • A time series study relating to Great Britain is a relatively simple process, but simplistic conclusions should not be drawn from it. However, if the thesis that more guns means more violent crime is correct, it must follow that fewer guns should mean fewer violent crimes. Home Office criminal statistics for England and Wales have given figures for the use of firearms in crime only for relatively modern times, prior to which the only information available was that from major cities, notably London, or from anecdotal and unreliable evidence. All the evidence that can be found from these sources shows that when there were no controls on firearms the rate of armed crime was very low and it remained so until the mid 1960s when it began to escalate. But the rate of legal firearms ownership was declining and has continued to decline whilst the rate of armed crime has grown.
  • Though there has been a gradual increase in the use of firearms in homicide it has remained a fairly constant proportion of all homicides.
  • The rise in the use of pistols in homicide since 1992 reflects a most important change in the nature of homicide and may well be associated in the rise of drug and criminal gang related shootings which are being reported in the media and by the police. A discernible change in the pattern of homicides involving firearms is taking place which may reflect a total failure to effectively police a segment of the community and which will have far reaching implications if not tackled effectively. Tackling this phenomenon through the medium of stricter controls of pistols is clearly not an option. They were extremely strictly controlled throughout the period and are now effectively banned.
  • Figures for crimes labelled as homicide in various countries are simply not comparable. Since 1967, homicide figures for England and Wales have been adjusted to exclude any cases which do not result in conviction, or where the person is not prosecuted on grounds of self defence or otherwise. This reduces the apparent number of homicides by between 13 per cent and 15 per cent. The adjustment is made only in respect of figures shown in one part of the Annual Criminal Statistics. In another part relating to the use of firearms, no adjustment is made. A table of the number of homicides in which firearms were used in England and Wales will therefore differ according to which section of the annual statistics was used as its base. Similarly in statistics relating to the use of firearms, a homicide will be recorded where the firearm was used as a blunt instrument, but in the specific homicide statistics, that case will be shown under “blunt instrument”. [Emphasis added.]
  • Acting within the remit of Economic and Social Council of the United Nations, the Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice recommended that a study be undertaken in member states into the regulation of firearms together with other topics assumed to be related to such regulation.
  • The authors of the UN Report draw a series of conclusions which are not justified by their own evidence. The only conclusion which can safely be drawn in that there is no casual relationship between the number of firearms in a State and the levels of death through homicide, suicide or accident.
  • The data produced in the survey provide no evidence of any correlation between firearms ownership and firearms accident levels.
  • The UN survey makes no pretence of controlling for any of the many variables known to influence suicide rates, but even these crude figures show that there is no correlation between firearms ownership and either overall suicide rates or firearms suicide rates.
  • The debate seems to assume that the United States is a homogenous unit, but that does not seem to be the case. Homicide rates vary from the extraordinarily high level of about 80 per hundred thousand in Washington DC which has a total ban on the ownership of most firearms, to rates less than those in the UK and Europe in States like Vermont which does not allow any restrictions on firearms ownership.
  • In the Study, Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96 by Professor David Farrington of Cambridge University and Dr Patrick Langan of the US Department of Justice, compared rates of reported assaults, robbery and burglary in the two countries were compared to discover that in all cases, England and Wales has overtaken the United States. The report was based on both crime victim surveys and police statistics and so is as reliable as any such report can be. The situation was reached in 1996 where the robbery rate in England and Wales is 40 per cent higher than it is in the United States whilst assault, burglary and “auto-crime” in England and Wales are almost double those in the United States.
  • Of even more significance is that the fact that the “hot” burglary rate (burglary committed whilst someone is in the house) involved 13 per cent of burglaries in the United States and about 50 per cent in England and Wales (Wright and Rossi 1986).
  • Many of the international studies on the relationship between levels of firearms ownership and crime rates have value only if studied with great care taking proper account of the many variables. A time series study in this country shows that no such relationship exists here and a study of the more reliable cross sectional analyses fails to disclose sufficient evidence of any such relationship and tends to disprove it.
  • Attempts have been made throughout this century to reduce levels of crime generally and levels of violent crime in particular by imposing strict controls on access to firearms. These have been applied in most parts the world and over a long period. There has yet to be a single follow-up study which shows that the imposition of controls on firearms, or the tightening of existing controls, has caused any reduction in the use of firearms in crime over time in any particular country or more generally. [Emphasis added.]

The first bolded point is of great importance and I repeat for even more emphasis:

Since 1967, homicide figures for England and Wales have been adjusted to exclude any cases which do not result in conviction.

This last bolded point is, in essence, a restatement of Just one question.

Don’t ever let anyone get away with bringing up England as justification for gun control. They are ignorant, misinformed, or lying.

Winning

Remember new shooters Kurt and Tracie?

Yesterday they went to the range with Barb and me. They haven’t purchased a gun yet but they have been looking and test fired two guns they rented at the range. Kurt has applied for his concealed pistol license and Tracie was asking good questions about shooting in self defense.

They went through 500 rounds of .22 LR, 100 rounds of 9mm, and about 20 rounds of low powered .40 S&W.

This is how we win the culture war.

Quote of the day—NRA ILA

UK law enforcement’s warning on terrorist gun attacks is a stark illustration of the fundamental flaw of gun control. Rather than scheming of new firearms restrictions that violent offenders will simply ignore, policy makers should be looking for ways to empower the law-abiding to better provide for their own defense.

NRA ILA
November 5, 2016
Despite Severe Gun Controls, UK Warns Of Terrorist Gun Attacks
[I have nothing to add.—Joe]

Action, reaction; the left never learns

Seattle passed a “gun tax” they claimed would raise hundreds of thousands of dollars, dollars to be spent on gun violence research. Being idiots they are, the did not expect that anyone would react to changing incentives. Of course any significant percentage tax-rate increase on something that costs several hundred to a couple of thousand dollars is a considerable sum. So people changed buying habits and bought from outside the city limits. So the ordinary sales-taxes collected plummeted because of falling sales. The city is refusing to say how much has been raised, or lost, as a result of the decision.

So is it that they cannot learn, are they are blinded by ideology, are they clinically insane, or what? I know some of them appear to be intellegent and function in daily work life OK, soooo? Why/how is it that something so obvious is done again and again? This sort of thing gets predicted over and over, but it’s like watching Charlie Brown going after Lucy’s football.

Why are progressives so violent?

A comment by Danika Takelo regarding Electoral College Voter Says He Will Not Vote For Hillary Clinton Even If She Wins His State:

I’m from Washington and if he does this, I want his HEAD on a platter!!!!!

Why are progressives so violent? It’s in their nature.

Quote of the day—Julian Assange

My analysis is that Trump would not be permitted to win. Why do I say that? Because he has had every establishment off his side. Trump does not have one establishment, maybe with the exception of the Evangelicals, if you can call them an establishment. Banks, intelligence, arms companies, foreign money, etc. are all united behind Hillary Clinton. And the media as well. Media owners, and the journalists themselves.

Julian Assange
November 4, 2016
HUMA REPORTEDLY ‘FLIPPED’ AGAINST HILLARY
[We live in interesting times.—Joe]

We lost a giant

Don Kates, the father of the modern Second Amendment revival, has died.

I have posted things by and about Kates many times:

We lost a giant in the gun rights world.