Category Archives: Economics

The Everything Collapse

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Quote of the Day

The inevitable consequence of the current Global Debt Bubble will be the Bankruptcy of the financial system and many of its participants.

The one Swiss and three US banks that just went under is just a foretaste of what is to come.

As the US and European banking systems come under pressure, The Everything Collapse will cause a collapse in financial markets of a magnitude that has never before been seen in history. Since the global financial system is a mesh which reaches every financial player in the world, from sovereigns to private individuals, no-one will be able to escape the The Everything Collapse.

Egon von Greyerz
April 16, 2023
FIRST GRADUALLY THEN SUDDENLY – THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE

The author is trying to sell you gold. There is a strong potential for bias in the analysis and claims.

However, with the U.S. debt increasing by a trillion dollars per year it seems more plausible.

The Chart that has Launched a Thousand Takes

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Quote of the Day

This is the chart that has launched a thousand takes.

The conclusion seems obvious: Everything the govt touches goes to infinity in price. Everything pure capitalism touches goes to zero.

But there’s another way of looking at this graph that dramatically changes the story.

image

Derek Thompson @DKThomp
Tweeted on March 18, 2023

The details of “the other way of looking at the graph” is at the linked tweet. It is claimed:

It’s not just govt vs. capitalism

It’s also services vs. goods.

But I see Cellphone Services and Food and Beverages out of the claimed groupings. Still, it is an interesting graph.

The Winning Mindset is Destroyed

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Quote of the Day

I’ve always been puzzled by how many abandoned and buried cities there are. What happened to entire civilizations?

Now we are watching human population collapse in a number of countries.

Makes me wonder if all human civilizations fail for the same reasons. What would those reasons be?

My guess is that pockets of humans develop belief systems that drive success, but success creates space for diverse opinions, and then the winning mindset is destroyed.

That’s what is happening in America. Traditional American values — with all its flaws — created a strong country. Now we have the luxury of entertaining less productive mindsets that are destroying the foundation.

Maybe that happens to every civilization.

Scott Adams @ScottAdamsSays
Tweeted on March 29, 2023

Interesting hypothesis. I don’t see any obvious flaws. In our particular case, the ever increasing debt spent on unproductive things is a strong datapoint in support of this hypothesis.

Nationalized banks?

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Quote of the Day

Joe Biden is spending the country into oblivion. He is bailing out wealthy depositors at these banks. Under Biden, our once-private banking industry has essentially been nationalized, too. With each year this man remains in office, a little bit more of America you and I knew will be chipped away. Eventually, we will look much like the European Union: a boon for crony capitalists and a nightmare for innovators.

Brandon Weichert
March 15, 2023
Joe Biden Might Have Just Destroyed America’s Banks

We live in interesting times. Prepare appropriately.

On socialism and communism

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Quote of the Day

In the end, we will be okay. The economy might crash, but in fundamentals we’re okay. Even manufacturing is reviving, even if it’s doing so in American fashion: fewer workers needed, less expense, more production, more profit.

We will be okay. Might “crash” in externals and structure for a while, before coming back, though. Same with the rest of our symptoms.

But we’re the majority. And we’ve already won.

The mop up is going to hurt like a b*tch.

But be not afraid. We got this.

In the end we win, they lose.

Because 2+2=4.

Sarah Hoyt
February 8, 2023
DOING THE ARITHMETIC

The post is about socialism and communism. I think she has things figured out as well as anyone.

Quote of the day—Steve H. Hanke, Barry W. Poulson

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U.S. debt has increased more rapidly than national income for more than half a century, creating what is often termed “debt fatigue.” The Congressional Budget Office reports that federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP increased to 98 percent in 2022 and is projected to increase to 185 percent by 2052, implying that Americans’ debt fatigue will only worsen. The fiscal rules enacted by Congress to constrain debt have clearly failed, and the federal government has virtually abandoned any semblance of a rules-based fiscal policy. Indeed, the debt ceiling has been routinely lifted or suspended, and the spending caps imposed by the 2011 Budget Control Act have been largely flaunted and were allowed to expire in 2022.

Steve H. Hanke, Barry W. Poulson
January 9, 2023
It’s Time to Put a Brake on the Debt-Ceiling Charade
[Most sources put the ratio about 120% or higher,

The debt “ceiling” is a total joke.

Prepare appropriately.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Alan M. Dershowitz

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In the bad old days, race was often used to discriminate against black applicants. Today race is often used to discriminate in favor of black applicants. I guess that is some sort of progress. But real progress will be achieved only if and when race is no longer a factor that trumps meritocracy.

Only then will Martin Luther King, Jr.’s dream of how his children and ours should be judged become a reality.

Alan M. Dershowitz
December 1, 2022
ALAN DERSHOWITZ: San Francisco Is The Canary In The Coal Mine For Where Wokeism Is Headed
[Just interact with people as individuals rather than some racial/religious/ethic/sexual-preference group. Does this person do good work and get along with people? If so, then except for a very few jobs, the other stuff does not matter.

By not hiring people based on merit society is made to pay more for goods and services. It is an waste of economic resources. Or, if you want to tweak the lefties, non-meritocracy hiring damages the planet.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Rohail Saleem

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Proponents argue that a digital U.S. dollar will allow the Federal Reserve a much greater level of precision in enacting its own monetary policy. For instance, if the Fed wants to juice up consumer spending, it can start penalizing the digital U.S. dollars stored in each citizen’s wallet, thereby creating a perverse incentive to spend those dollars. Similarly, the Fed can also provide targeted relief to those most in need by depositing a set balance of the digital U.S. dollar directly within designated wallets.

Rohail Saleem
November 15, 2022
Here Comes the Digital U.S. Dollar: The NY Fed Has Now Launched a 12-Week Pilot Program for Digital Dollar Tokens
[This is what the proponents are saying? Wow! That’s like a used car salesman telling you, “This car is a ticking time bomb and by morning it will take out your house and family in a huge fireball. Just give us your money and in a few minutes it is yours to drive off the lot.”

This is a really bad idea. I prefer cash and perhaps precious metals for money. Change my mind.—Joe]

What is the worst that could happen?

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Given the abundant historical data we can ask some interesting questions that should prove enlightening to people that have an interest in being enlightened.

  1. Based on the historical record what has been the best possible outcome from a country adopting a predominantly Marxist political philosophy? Where and when is this example?
  2. Based on the historical record what has been the best possible outcome from a country adopting a predominantly free market, free minds political philosophy? And where and when is this example?

Compare those two scenarios and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the outcomes due to one philosophy over the other.

  1. Based on the historical record what has been the worst possible outcome from a country adopting a predominantly Marxist political philosophy? Where and when is this example?
  2. Based on the historical record what has been the worst possible outcome from a country adopting a predominantly free market, free minds political philosophy? Where and when is this example?

Now compare these two scenarios and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the outcomes due to one philosophy over the other.

If you country were to have a complete political reset and have the option to chose between a Marxist and a free markets, free minds, political philosophy which would be the lowest risk of catastrophe?

Which political philosophy would be the most likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number?

What is your choice for the political philosophy for your country as it comes out of reset? What are the critical factors in your choice?

Discuss.

Citations needed

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With great eagerness I read the article, Crypto’s Decline Was Inevitable, Because It Is Based on a Classic Money Myth. I’ve been struggling for a long time to understand whether Bitcoin (and/or other cryptocurrencies) are the future or a Ponzi scheme:

I expected the author to make everything clear to me.

I was extremely disappointed.

While I tend to believe the main conclusion, the decline of the cryptocurrency market is inevitable, is true, I am exceedingly annoyed that he does not back up his claims. He merely asserts that, as a psychoanalyst, he knows his claims about the nature of money are true.

Even highly credentialed economists are not so arrogant as to make sweeping claims about the nature of money or the inevitable decline of cryptocurrency without detailed explanations and/or numerous citations. This guy is not even playing in his area of expertise and claims complete mastery of it.

That’s really, really lame. This discredits his entire profession. And, for a psychoanalyst, that is no easy task.

Quote of the day—John Robb @johnrobb

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21st Century planned scarcity.

As in, “let’s not expand into space for energy and resource acquisition, or take the actions on earth necessary in the short term (nuclear power), because scarcity induced totalitarianism is much safer, just, and deserved.”

John Robb @johnrobb
Tweeted on August 28, 2022
[It’s the ongoing conflict between centrally planned and free markets.Or the zero-sum versus non zero-sum mindset. There exist people who crave and even insist on control. These people believe there MUST be someone, organization, or something in control. They are certain they and the world are a better place if control is exerted over a wide set of peoples action.

Some people believe the world would be a better place if most property and (possibly “or” instead of “and”, but this would be rare when you get down to the details) economic decisions are controlled by some supposedly superior being. This superior being is typically a government controlled by a committee and/or a dictator. These people fall in a spectrum that can generally be considered socialist to communist.

Some people believe the world would be a better place if social position and activity decisions (particularly sexual behaviors) are controlled by some supposedly superior being. This superior being is typically a government controlled or at least guided by a set of religious leaders. These people fall in a spectrum that can generally be considered democratic theists, many monarchists, to theocrats.

In the more general case people can be classified as being on a scale from anarchist to authoritarian. Here I am referring to the somewhat less common definition of anarchist as the organization of society on the basis of voluntary cooperation, without political institutions or hierarchical government rather than a state of disorder and chaos.

All social organizations have tradeoff. And under various situations some organizational types are vastly superior to others. For example an anarchist society does not do well against a communist society in search of hosts to satisfy their parasitic requirements. Yet, not too far up the spectrum from anarchist a society with government formed for the protection can economically and technologically, hence militarily defeat a similarly sized society near the authoritarian end of the spectrum.

I find our current political climate annoying because, as Robb indirectly points out above, a frightening number of people are demanding “progress” toward authoritarian government. There is actually a “sweet spot”, by many measures of societal “health”, which lies far closer to the anarchist end of the scale. This is an old, and mostly ignored, observation. History appears to be nearing another catastrophic rhyme.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Adam Kotsko @adamkotsko

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My ideal land use distribution (based heavily on KSR): all agricultural land is collectively owned and scientifically managed to balance quantity, quality, and variety of food against sustainability and ethical practices. No single-family or corporate for-profit farms.

Adam Kotsko @adamkotsko
Tweeted on August 22, 2022
[I think “KSR” means “Knowledge and Social Responsibility.”

As collective farms have always worked out so well when and wherever they have been attempted.

As Robb Allen @ItsRobbAllen said:

My God, the hubris & ignorance to believe this level of central management is even possible is simply breathtaking.

Prepare and respond appropriately.—Joe]

This is what they think of you

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I don’t identify as Republican but for those of you who do. This is what New York State Governor Hochul thinks of you:

Gov. Kathy Hochul, who hasn’t proven shy about issuing orders, had one for the state’s Republicans this week — all 5.4 million of them: “Just jump on a bus and head down to Florida where you belong, OK?” she said. “You are not New Yorkers.”

If you can move beyond the frankly disgusting political partisanship and intolerance, her message is fiscally irresponsible, even dangerous. The governor probably already knows this, but the state’s extensive public sector is heavily reliant on personal income taxes paid by residents, and with nearly $14 billion in projected budget gaps over the next five years, it can’t afford to lose any taxpayers, let alone 5.4 million of them.

The Empire State has already lost 1.5 million residents in the past decade, and there’s no sign of that trend letting up. In fact, more than 350,000 New Yorkers relocated during the 12 pandemic-plagued months leading up to July 1, 2021.

I suspect she cares even less for “my type” of people than she does Republicans.

I find it interesting that parasites, left unchecked, destroy their hosts. However some, such as your gut bacteria, evolve into a symbiotic relationship and are kept under control by the host.

This appears to be true at all level from a virus all the way down to communists. Hochul apparently doesn’t know the number of known cures for her type of parasitic infection are limited and don’t involve a long term symbiotic relationship.

Quote of the day—Damion @commiedamion

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If your family “suffered under communism” that says a lot more about your family than it does about communism. Good people don’t suffer under communism – slavers and exploiters do.

Damion @commiedamion
Tweeted on August 19, 2022
[Wow! Just WOW!

Evil cannot flourish without believing it is doing good.

Prepare and respond appropriately.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Nina Turner @ninaturner

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Student debt cancelation isn’t paid for by the taxpayers, the federal government is the lender.

It’s costlier for the government to hold on to the debt.

Nina Turner @ninaturner
Thought leader. Activist. Senior Fellow at @RacePowerPolicy. Former Ohio State Senator & Professor.
Tweeted on August 21, 2022
[“Thought leader”? Yeah, I can see that. She is thinking of things almost no one else thinks of. Of course that is because she is delusional and/or evil, but still, it is “leading”.

I wonder which political party she identified with to get elected as an Ohio State Senator. Having crap for brains apparently isn’t a disqualifier.

Prepare appropriately.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Keith M. Bellizzi

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“Facts First” is the tagline of a CNN branding campaign which contends that “once facts are established, opinions can be formed.” The problem is that while it sounds logical, this appealing assertion is a fallacy not supported by research.

Cognitive psychology and neuroscience studies have found that the exact opposite is often true when it comes to politics: People form opinions based on emotions, such as fear, contempt and anger, rather than relying on facts. New facts often do not change people’s minds.

Keith M. Bellizzi
August 13, 2022
Cognitive Biases and Brain Biology Help Explain Why Facts Don’t Change Minds
[This is probably a big part of the reason that Mao Tse Tung coined the phrase, “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun”. Facts and reason are nearly irrelevant in politics. The only reliable means of changing people’s minds regarding politics is with a bullet.

Socialism and communism are so inefficient they cannot tolerate slackers or doubters. They need a very high compliance rate to sustain themselves.

Prepare appropriately.—Joe]

Quote of the day—Alice Smith @TheAliceSmith

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The big socialist talking points are justice and compassion.

The big socialist motivations are resentment and revenge.

The big socialist results are labour camps and mass graves.

Alice Smith @TheAliceSmith
Tweeted on August 15, 2022
[I would like to add that it seems the word “equity” is showing up a lot. And as I have pointed out before:

Full equality can only be approximated by everyone being in extreme poverty. Full equality comes with death. And it should come as no surprise the political left is well acquainted with death on a very large scale.

Prepare appropriately.—Joe]