We actually know now that the two best predictors of whether violence is likely to happen are, whether a country is an anocracy, and that’s a fancy term for a partial democracy, and whether ethnic entrepreneurs have emerged in a country that are using racial, religious, or ethnic divisions to try to gain political power. And the amazing thing about the United States is that both of these factors currently exist, and they have emerged at a surprisingly fast rate.
…
The United States is pretty close to being at high risk of civil war.
Barbara Walter
Professor at University of California at San Diego
December 20, 2021
How close is the US to civil war? Closer than you think, study says
[Apparently there are measurable indicators of the risk of civil war. Walter has written a book on the topic. I might have to read it. This is even though there are a lot of indicators Walter places a lot (most? all?) the blame on Trump and his supporters.
See also what J.D. Tuccille has to say about Walter and her book.—Joe]
Libertarians demonstrating their uselessness again.
Could you elaborate? I don’t understand in the current context.
If that was for me, here is an example from the linked Reason article.
“Unfortunately, 2020 was a lost opportunity to separate the feuding factions, and instead we traded one brand of overreach for another.”
There are any number of false equivalencies in that piece.
Ahh… It was the Reason article! I thought you were talking about the QOTD.
Thanks.
I don’t think so. Do we have problems, yes, but civil war, no. Out of control crime yes. A shaky economy, yes. A lot of stupid decisions, yes. A lower standard of living, yes. Out of control legislators, yes. Do we have professors making a lot stupid conclusions based on wishful thinking, yes.
As Adam Smith said ‘there is a lot of ruin in a nation’, and that applies even more today. And there are still ways to express our displeasures with the powers that be of this country short of taking up arms. Just look at individuals making the decision not to work because of stupid rules. As a result many public services are now crippled. Just because the executive says jump, that does not mean that people will jump.
And private industry has the same problem. WFH is being allowed because the executives have a lot of pressure to allow it.
Leftist say whaaaaat?
Well, of course it’s all Trump’s fault. When the government, regardless of party affiliation merely ratchets the nation closer to an autocracy with merely simulated participation by the population, eventually someone will object, and that objection will be received with all claws out. The people who do not value liberty will blame those who want it.
What does “ethnic entrepreneurs” mean? Entrepreneurs who are not white? Or people who use their ethnicity as a way to get ahead? If it means the latter, I guess she’s talking about people like Al Sharpton or Ilhan Omar.
Race whores, essentially, or anyone who uses ethnicity, religion, gender, etc. (identity of any kind), to advance themselves socially, politically or financially. Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton are classic examples, but they come in all colors, shapes, sizes and rationalizations. There are more of them than meets the eye at first, but once you understand the entrepreneurial aspect of it, you start to see them just about everywhere. It’s a very popular lifestyle, or niche.
What is the most obvious is that Ms. Barbara and friends are the ones who have set us up for, and are importing the necessary conditions for a civil war.
Small problems will always naturally occur in any group of people. And generally work themselves out in small scale ways. No matter how bloody.
But large ones are created. For a reason.
Be those reasons misguided. The problems that lead to civil war on a massive scale are always built, maintained, and pushed over the top by power grubbing megalomaniacs.
Such is the case once again. The only real question is will we allow those responsible to escape? Will they be allowed to do it again?
Or will humanity finally learn the causes and precursors to civil war. And be ruthless enough to put an end to it before it happens again?
It’s gone on since the time of Nimrod. One would think we would catch on?
Well, We’ll see.
Vox Day has been predicting, for over a decade now, a CW starting circa 2033 based on macro trends in economics, demographics, financial breaks, etc. Others, like Cliff High, are predicting them starting as soon as next year. I see no reason things should not fail spectacularly within 15 years. On the other hand, there are some very large variables now in play that are stupidly hard to predict, and have huge vested interests on both sides trying to manipulate things to their advantage.
As MTHead said above, problems are cultivated and maintained and grown by various factions in order to gain power and wealth. Look up “Curley Effect.” Look up “divide and conquer.” Look at the number of times a cohesive ethnic minority has grown wealthy and powerful within a host nation, then looted and ran leaving collapse and ruin behind. It’ll happen again.
History can be as depressing as it is fascinating. That said, I’m overall long-term optimistic, though there will most likely be a few rough years ahead of us. Build community. Have physical assets. Be ready to be flexible, scrap plan A, B, C, and D, and move on to plan J.2b or whatever. Pray, keep healthy, and be relentlessly optimistic.
“This is even though there are a lot of indicators Walter places a lot (most? all?) the blame on Trump and his supporters.”
Of course it’s all our fault. We might fight back, after all, spoiling the Left’s fun.