Dominos?

There are a number of indicators of interest to me around the world.

What You Need to Know About Evergrande

the company scrambles to find funds, construction has stalled on its projects, putting the future of the 1.4 million properties that it has committed to building in doubt. The situation has sparked protests at Evergrande headquarters in Shenzhen, China. Protestors included contractors owed money by Evergrande and those who have paid for a home that may now never be built.

One of World’s Largest Port Operators Warns Global Supply Chain ‘Crisis’ Will Last Longer Than Expected

“Regardless if it is a port, vessel, or warehouse, when one becomes impacted, it quickly results in a downward spiral as delays accumulate,” Maersk’s update reads. “We see pockets of improvements, only to get setbacks when our operations encounter new COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns.”

Households Brace for Higher Winter Heating Costs as Natural Gas Prices Vault

The relentless rise in natural gas prices continued on Oct. 6, highlighting the looming threat to U.S. households bracing for higher heating costs in the event of a harsh winter.

U.S. natural gas futures were up 1.11 percent at $6.312 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in early trading on Oct. 6 after jumping around 9 percent a day earlier to settle at $6.312 per mmBtu, their highest level since 2008.

While gas prices in Europe and Asia have more than tripled this year, the United States has largely been shielded from the global crunch because of plentiful supplies. While U.S. natural gas is trading around the $6 per mmBTu mark, it’s at around $30-plus in Europe and Asia.

But experts warn the global natural gas crunch could have ripple effects, with possible impacts on households in the United States.

Those are just a sample.

Housing material is expensive and difficult to find. Labor is in short supply too.

The U.S. government is going to increase the debt even though everyone knows they can’t possibly pay off the existing debt. The situation of other governments, world wide, is not much different.

Closer to home is the drought this summer blew away the previous all time record in terms of total rainfall in Clearwater County Idaho. The yields were 1/3 to 1/2 of normal with very low quality. The drought wasn’t just local either.

It is not difficult to envision a domino effect and things go completely bonkers

Prepare appropriately. I want an underground bunker in Idaho.

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11 thoughts on “Dominos?

  1. sir:

    i would recommend the hells canyon area in northeastern oregon, say centered more or less around the imnaha and troy areas. it is rugged, it is not easy to get to, but it finds a handy recourse to civilization in and around joseph, oregon. (that’s not easy to get to, either, in the winter.

    a genuine 4-wheel drive would be smart. i don’t mean a subaru, i mean detroit iron with a 2 wheel, 4 wheel high, 4 wheel low transfer case, and locking differentials. i prefer the intermediate chevy (gasoline), others prefer the big diesels: i find agility to be of more utility than brute force. if you want power, buy a real truck, dual rear axels.

    learn how to cook w/ flour and bacon, and get used to the idea of real chickens and slaughtering a steer and/or pig every fall.

    buy wool. (goose down is for idiots.) get a root celler, and wood stoves for heat. indoor water is nice, and a good clean well away from people uphill, with a hand pump might come in mighty handy in the winter. learn how to poop outside, and bury it.

    hard to beat a good brand of canned peaches, and/or canned cherries. (dark.) learn how to process your own venison. plenty ammo, reloading equipment, bullets, powder, primers and the rest of the fixin’s.

    good luck.

  2. While Mr. Jay’s suggestions are quite worthwhile, and accurate, forgetteth not the value of “tribe.” Statistically, there is no place in the United States farther than 20 miles from some sort of road, traversable by a vehicle of some sort, and no place so remote it will not eventually require skill at arms to defend and a bountiful supply of manual labor to maintain and provide sustenance.

    A few of the younger, yet more proficient , Boomershooters, i.e., those known to arrive ahead of schedule with adequate supplies of their own, already sighted-in projectile expellers and memorized drop tables would be a good start, along with a core of well equipped older knowledgeable and experienced land use advisors and the ability to establish cooperative alliances within the “neighborhood.”

    It’s fiction, and a bit strained by author-created conditions, but S.M Stirling’s trilogy is a decent primer for thinking about such things. If, however, one is still at the “primer” stage in this, best to ignore such advice and content oneself with the simple pursuit of “eat, drink and be merry” for there is little time left before well-trained action and the bench depth of all types of resources will be put to the test, and those who succumb early will serve a purpose, that of not getting in the way during the most serious phase.

  3. The first of the trilogy is Dies the Fire which sets the stage, The Protector’s War is next, followed by A Meeting at Corvalis.

    It’s been a number of years since I read them (I have a pile of re-reads waiting, and those 3 are among them, if I can ever get caught up with new and current stuff) but, and being careful to not do spoilers, quite a bit of The Protector’s War parallels, but does not exactly match, much of what we’re experiencing now. All I’ll say is “nature abhors a vacuum” and nature seems to hunt for them.

      • As Tirno (above) points out, the story continues past A Meeting at Corvalis for 12 more books. I haven’t looked at any of them because as interesting, and fascinatingly complex, as the story is I chose to not overdose on it, and Meeting was sufficiently climactic that it seemed a good place to stop. YMMV.

      • This just occurred to me: I don’t know if you’ve started the series at Dies the Fire but I’ll assume you did (if not, I’d suggest beginning there before going to The Protector’s War).

        I think Stirling must have had way in the back of his mind the idea (concept?) that we may be living in a Sim, or at least the “coffee shop discussion” possibility of it*, because of the way he establishes “the new performance rules” (that’s cryptic for a reason – I don’t want to drop spoilers for anyone who hasn’t read the series).

        * I think it would be difficult for anyone well-involved in writing SciFi in the late 20th century to not have entertained that possibility. (If, indeed, we are living in a Sim, I’d like to get my hands on the OS and several of the apps code for a couple of hours….)

  4. Evergrande is just a communist idea of how capitalism works. It was always going to go bad. And with our inflation being exported, and China’s gold reserves. We can’t be sure it’s not part of unrestricted warfare that is China’s true policy toward the USA.
    It’s not covid shutting down ports. It’s the government and trucking.
    Natural gas being priced on an international scale is a scam in and of itself. It’s all pumped thru lines. And though it can be compressed to shipped. It’s not that easy.
    All in all. Were being managed to death. For fun and profit.
    Building a bunker is great. But they only work if no one knows your down there. As Patton said; Fixed fortifications are a monument to man’s vanity. All war is mobile.
    Logistics are the key. One needs to be at the end of ones enemy supply lines. And have the ability to cut such at will.
    One can only survive in a bunker, but one has to live in a house. Especially in Idaho, as you well know.
    One must appear to look like nothing out in the middle of nowhere.
    And your positioned better than anyone I know.

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