But getting back to Biden’s solid lead in polling, should we just cede the election to him — and his VP candidate who’d probably be in power within a year?
Not so fast. For over 80 years, pollsters have asked two key questions in election polling. The first is, “Who are you voting for?”
That’s the intention question. The second question is, “Who do you expect to win?” That’s the expectation question.
The answer to the intention question gets all the headlines. Those are the polling results we describe above. The answer to the expectation question gets buried and is scarcely discussed.
But guess what? In cases where the intention and expectation questions have different answers, (in effect, “I’m voting for A, but I expect B to win”), the expectation answer had the correct result 78% of the time.
The intention question had the correct result only 22% of the time.
And, Trump is leading the expectation question right now 55% to 45% for Biden. So, Trump actually is ahead in the polls. You just have to be looking at the right polls. That’s key. So don’t write Trump off just yet.
July 27, 2020
How Secure Is Biden’s Lead?
[Interesting! Very, very interesting.—Joe]