Too long, didn’t read, version: I’m going to wait and see until the end of the month before making the decision to cancel or not. The refund policy is here: https://entry.boomershoot.com/Refunds.aspx
As I live just a few minutes from ground zero in the U.S. I’m just as, or more concerned, than the typical Boomershoot participant regarding COVID-19.
I’ve talked to many people about what we should do in regards to Boomershoot 2020.
There are several components to Boomershoot. If the Federal guidelines remain in place and we adhere to them, then the Boomershoot dinner will be canceled.
One could make the case that the rest of the event is not at all that serious of a risk. People are outside with good air flow and, except for the portable toilets, not sharing door knobs or other transfer surfaces. With a big stash of disinfecting wipe the portable toilet point of risk could be managed.
There is another component that is of more concern and not as easily mitigated. Our target production facility has very tight quarters. I have dramatically improved the air filtration since last year but still it’s not nearly as good as I think it should be to be safe if someone were contagious. To top that concern off is the fact that two essential staff members are in the group considered “high risk”.
This leads me to conclude that unless things get remarkably better we should cancel the event.
My day job is working on a Cyber Threat Intelligence team. I get access to other types of threat intel as well. Last week I listened in on a call with DHS regarding COVID-19. There wasn’t any information that wasn’t already public but it was packaged a little bit better. I have also talked to a couple sources that have information that hasn’t been widely circulated. While still technically public information this information leads me to some conclusions.
- My expectation is that the seriousness of the situation will continue to get worse for some undetermined amount of time. It may be that summer weather will slow or even stop the spread of the virus. The threat, however, will continue to be significant for months, not just a few weeks.
- While things will get worse it’s not going to be life threatening to most people outside of the high risk groups.
- Avoiding contact with contagious people is extremely important for people at high risk. Some hospitals in the Seattle area are already at nearly full capacity and are sending injured emergency patients, sometimes, hundreds of miles away to hospitals without a COVID-19 burden.
What this means to me is that if we get some hot summer like weather for the next two weeks and things look summer like at Boomershoot things may be good enough that I will not cancel Boomershoot. I don’t think this will be the case but there is no harm in waiting. We are continuing to get the last of the supplies and will be able to put on a stellar event should we decide to continue.
The refund details are here. Basically, if the event is canceled you will get the option of full credit for next year or a refund of 95% of your credit card payment (details differ for a few people, read the policy). Your choice.
If you have questions or concerns I have not addressed here please send me an email or give me a call.
Boomershoot Event Director
Went hunting for longer-range forecasts, which is difficult to have a lot of confidence in for a daily prediction because all numerical weather prediction models converge to climatological means, if they don’t go completely incoherent and destablize after five forecast days (a sign of insufficient time-steps for the configured spatial density. Weather forecasting is closer to an O(N^6) problem than an O(N^3) because the physics calculations go wonky if the T density is not increased along with each of the X, Y and Z densities).
Best place I could figure to look was to weather forecasts for farmers, as their planning window extends the furthest into the future because the are stuck once they make their decisions. Farmer’s Almanac at least had a characterization weather summary that gets out to middle April: Northwest US. Doesn’t get past Easter at his point, but in a couple of weeks they should at least have a hand-wave forecast. I’m betting that publication has an economic interest in not overplaying its hand in that regard, while still providing some guidance.
Anyone got access to more formal predictions, possibly from the Dept of Ag? Their website products are just for the upcoming week and climatological reports (total rainfall, etc) for last months.
Weather.com’s stuff is good for a month, with a grain of salt.
comments on other blogs, from Australians, indicate that their current summer weather is not having any limiting effects on the spread of the virus, as it would for normal types of viruses. This bug doesn’t act like a natural one, apparently.
Yeah, I also picked up on that. I knew it was unlikely but it looks like the likelihood is zero.
OTOH, it’s not obviously spreading like wildfire in Egypt or Nigeria, where cases have been known for a while. Spreading, yes, but much more slowly than in cooler climes. Brazil has some spread, but still relatively modest; too early to know for certain, but it’s not obviously unaffected.
Local businesses will obviously get hit, but so will state revenue. WA has big sales tax, and if all those taxed sales in restaurants and bars shift to retail grocery where there is no taxes (and we have shifted to a roughly 50/50 out / eat-at-home nation according to https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/19/specific-retail-food-shortages-will-not-soon-improve-but-the-overall-food-supply-chain-is-very-strong/#more-186863 ), along with all that hotel occupancy taxes etc., then the state governments will take a huge revenue hit as well. Be interesting to see how it all gets handled.
THings are not likely to be over by April/May, but summer will help.