We genuinely have no idea how many firearms there are in America, and that is fine. We do know how many have been produced a year for the past ~35 years, the only correlation between the change in firearms in America and the change in firearm-related fatalities is negative-to-non-existent, for both raw numbers and per-American rates. Thus, “more guns = more deaths” cannot be true.
December 4, 2019
fixed points in data
[I found the blog post quite interesting because Jonathan points out something that I knew from my multiple classes in statistics but had not thought applied to the topic at hand. That is, a time correlation does not care about absolute values of the variables being considered, just the change in the values over time.
For example the correlation between the number of firearms in circulation and the murder rate by gun fire is the same in each of these cases with the following assumptions 1) The murder rate over time is the same in all cases; and 2) The number of guns added or removed from circulation over time is the same.
- The number of guns in circulation on January 1, 1990 is zero.
- The number of guns in circulation on January 1, 1990 is 100 million.
- The number of guns in circulation on January 1, 1990 is 1 billion.
And of course, the result of this exercise does not have any effect on the specific enumerated right to keep and bear arms. It does, however, have utility in demonstrating anti-gun people do not understand math when they claim “more guns = more deaths”.—Joe]