Via email from daughter Jaime.
Do the same math … we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.
This is a bigger chance than your floodplain-bound home flooding during your mortgage.
Following the same procedure, we can see that even over an 18-year span we have a 10% chance of violent revolution, which is an interesting thought experiment to entertain before you have kids.
He goes on to look at it from several other viewpoints and shows the above estimate is probably low. It’s easy to argue the odds are MUCH higher. And furthermore, things change very rapidly making it difficult or impossible to prepare once you are almost certain you need to prepare.