Do the math, “Do you need an AR-15?”

Via email from daughter Jaime.

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper: Or, “Who Needs an AR-15 Anyway?”

Do the same math … we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.

This is a bigger chance than your floodplain-bound home flooding during your mortgage.

Following the same procedure, we can see that even over an 18-year span we have a 10% chance of violent revolution, which is an interesting thought experiment to entertain before you have kids.

He goes on to look at it from several other viewpoints and shows the above estimate is probably low. It’s easy to argue the odds are MUCH higher. And furthermore, things change very rapidly making it difficult or impossible to prepare once you are almost certain you need to prepare.


7 thoughts on “Do the math, “Do you need an AR-15?”

  1. I’ve been driving a car since 1972, and in that time I’ve had one flat tire while driving. I still carry a spare tire, in spite of the low probability based on past experience of a flat happening while I’m away from home.
    As the securities salesmen say, “Past experience is no guarantee of future results”, even though that’s how they sell the paper. I still carry a spare.

  2. Same math applies to “Do you need a fifty caliber, belt-fed?” or other militia arms, equipment supplies, or training. Of course the hardware is one thing, while knowing what to do with it, and what not to do with it, is something else.

  3. As I live near and work in Seattle, I have a straightforward answer.

    As demonstrated on multiple occasions when the Seattle PD (and other locales) is told by elected officials to hold back on enforcing the law when Antifa and the Black Bloc run rampant, and the police do as they are told, you are straight up on your own when the militant wing of the city council’s ideology are burning, breaking and assaulting. Yes, the order itself is a violation of Equal Protection, but who has standing to sue? We’d have to start with a cop whistleblower, at least.

    It’s not particularly new. That’s the way the Klu Klux Klan operated in the antebellum South, with the consent and cover of the elected Democrat Party local officials, sheriffs and police chiefs.

    We don’t need to postulate a percentage chance of violent revolution. We have a fairly decent chance every month of uncontained riots pursuant to progressive purposes.

  4. As Masad Ayoob says,”It’s not the risk, it’s what’s at stake.”

  5. Nobody *needs* an AR-15. After all, there are other platforms (AK, Mini-14, etc.) that are perfectly acceptable for the intermediate-cartridge semiauto rifle niche in one’s gun vault.

  6. I need a gun I can shoot and hit the target aimed at. The AR-15 style works for that.
    Next question?

  7. In 1950, the share of the U.S. population that was of European descent was 89.5%. In the year 2000 it was 75%. In 2018, it is 61%, you’re gonna need an AR-15.

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