For those involved in transitions to resilient communities, the best situation is obviously a period of extended stagnation. It allows an organic and self-financed transition towards local resilience and an orderly disconnection from the global system. In contrast, the depression scenario implies an onset rate that will overwhelm local planners with a tidal wave of foreclosures, bankruptcies, and civil unrest. Disconnection from the global system will be in large part involuntary and the development of resilient local platforms will be ad hoc and desperate.
Global guerrilla proliferation in that scenario will be rapid and likely impossible to mitigate (no preparation) before it reaches critical mass/entrenched levels (as in, a functional bazaar of violence and extensive systems disruption). That eventuality would make for interesting times.
February 4, 2009
JOURNAL: Economic Scenarios
[“Interesting times”? Indeed.–Joe]