I haven’t finished it yet but I found this fascinating. It is a study on terrorist groups from 1968 until now. It gives data on how often terrorist groups were successfully (not very often) and why they were successful (goals were somewhat narrow). What brought about their downfall (police, and negoitations with the government) and what indicators there are for a groups longevity (religion is strongly associated with longevity) and chances of success (religion is negatively associated with success).
Al-Qaeda doesn’t have a good future if history is any indicator.
Back at Eastern Michigan University–back when they were the Hurons, before the morphed in to the politically correct Eagles–when my classmates in the CJ program were doing their papers on the legalization of marijuana, I was doing mine on Terrorism. (They were usually for, I was against.)
I once got into an argument with a professor over whether terrorism was a) an effective tactic, and b) a successful one. I graduated, so I guess you can say I won, although I didn’t convince him… (I don’t recall if he was the same idiot who claimed in class that there was no such thing as the mafia…)
Anyway, I was very glad to see this published. Vindication, of sorts.